Dzuka Malawi: Battle lines for 2019 elections are being drawn across parties

Using a normal political calendar, the DPP honeymoon ended on June 1, 2016. That is when it clocked two years in office as governing party. The next year, DPP has to move towards implementation, rediscover its brand as a saviour of hunger, key developments and visionary.

Politically, by June 2017, the language will change. If Dr. Lazarous Chakwera called this year’s  President Mutharika’s speech empty, be assured in 2017 he will be facing his own party convention. 2018 is a campaign year. Expect a nuclear bomb of response in 2017. May we all live to remind each other again.

So everyone who wants to run as a councillor, MP or presidency this is the year to start engagement, 2017 rhetoric and 2018 go all-out campaign. If you can’t notice the engagement, send me an email, I will be your personal political adviser!

Already battle lines are being drawn across parties, almost in every party. Today I can confidently tell you which camps are emerging in the three parties that will be main contestants as we go towards 2019 elections. The position of running mate will be very crucial than in the past elections.

How can a person who is not a member of the party in any meaningful way, who is not known to party members, be chosen to be a presidential running mate for that party? How can one person be left to choose the possible ‘next’ president of not only his or her political party but also that of the Republic? Principal leaders of a political party are chosen by one individual without elections or sufficient democratic processes! What type of democracy is this? What type of intra-party or inner-party democracy is this?

First  the DPP. The most stable and intelligent way is for President Peter Mutharika to stick with Dr. Saulos Klaus Chilima as his 2019 running mate. But as politics has shown in the past, logic is not common. Already Dr. Ben Phiri’s leaving of State House has sent tongues wagging, he is a power house, great organiser and humble and helpful person-to those that interact with him they will say. He has a battalion of personal loyalties for helping people. Of course he can’t be running mate to President Mutharika, but you can’t rule out political deals he can make under the table and find himself on a powerful seat even Allan Ntata could not prophecy.

Then we have Dr. George Chaponda, he has not denied ambitions for Presidency and he has termed himself as a “bulldozer” (Ironic that the dozing side was what he did with gusto in Parliament). The first month he went to Ministry of Agriculture, he invited Chiefs from the whole Southern Region ADDs to discuss “irrigation.” To me it was an introduction platform. He is not really a fool as many in politics underrate him. He keeps saying he could have been UN Secretary general- he is aiming for the top.

The position of Atupele Muluzi should always be at the back of every potential DPP running mate mind. He is after all a President of a former ruling party. He can decide to wag his way into an alliance.

The last group won’t require much analysis but it includes two Yaos- Henry Mussa from Chiradzulu and Bright Msaka, powerful and strategy oriented Ministers, Dr. Jean Kalilani with her Central Region strategic location, Dr. Hetherwick Ntaba and the final one will be a surprise Northerner yet to be identified. I can comfortably rule out Joseph Mwanamvenkha and any DPP and another party alliance. DPP has won all its two elections without political alliance- it would be a hard sale.

Coming to MCP, Speaker Richard Msowoya should be worried. The shuffling of his strongest ally Dr. Jessie Kabwira should serve as a good warning of things to come. MCP will either go for alliance or its next running mate will emerge from the Southern Region should Chakwera survive the political putsch expected to hit the party soon.

There is a court order for convention, Chakwera was ill advised to endorse those veteran MCP leaders. There is a very radical and telling MCP song they sing when militant forces are at work “Wakale Osantaya.” I saw it during the battle with Gwanda Chakuamba, late Kate Kainja, late Ishmael Chafukira and lately with Sosten Gwengwe.

It will be foolish to believe one can control MCP without district chairman and regional veterans- ask many MPs, they find themselves out of parliament when they cross this people. I can safely predict that most MCP MPs in Central Region, save for Kasungu, Salima and Dedza will fall in 2018 primaries. They were shooting wrong arrows.

Now Msowoya should be scared of Peoples Party offering alliance and accepting to be running mate just to get rid of DPP. It could also come from UDF who will want to get back a platform in the Southern Region. The others to look out include Joseph Njobvuyalema and a pack of old guards whose base in the party has been shaken but not weakened- Yes for the Chakwera thinkers, when Convention comes, the delegates will be 80 percent of the same in 2013 and he faces a revolt led by the people he just antagonised. Ask Gwanda Chakuamba, MCP is not the Facebookers or bright Pentecostal colleagues he is bringing in, MCP is the district officials- not even constituency matters.

Then you have the Felix Jumbe being pushed around, you have Lovemore Munlo waiting in the wings and now even Chris Daza known for owning 19 districts he plays around the party structure. He has been a Secretary General and he knows the games that saw Tembo pluck him. Come 2017 MCP faces a political blood bath one cannot manage.

The third party is not the Peoples Party. The Peoples party will break into three, Joyce Banda’s loyalists led by Ralph Jooma, Mai Chikuni and Roy Kachale, Khumbo Kachali’s battalion which will cover much of North and Central Region and finally Uladi Mussa’s, I can swear to sacrifice all heads of our greedy politicians if he will leave the PP presidency without a fight. He will use the position to develop an alliance and either get a running mate slot or other one. Trust me he will fight to be on the ballot in 2019. We can bet a million each.

I don’t see Joyce Banda raising funds to run again, she is finished politically by her long self-imposed exile unless DPP becomes worse of the worst again.

The Peoples Party and the United Democratic Front require political miracle to get more seats in the next election. Their relevance to Malawi politics entirely depend on the DPP’s political and government performance. The only consolation for UDF is that people like Lucius Banda have not defected to another party guaranteeing it one safe seat and that of Machinga Northeast.

The third party is what should worry DPP and MCP. A coalition of seasoned politicians like Henry Chimunthu Banda, Henry Dama Phoya, Davies Katsonga,  Dr. Ken Lipenga, Sidik Mia, Dr. Cassim Chilumpha, Bintony Kutsaira, Dan Msowoya and many that have been quite than normal. They are good at forming parties, good running them and are politicians in own right. With Henry Chimunthu Banda still respected and seen as clean as Presidential candidate and Mohammed Sidik Mia as running mate the race will be massive, the outcome unpredictable.

Dzuka Malawi, the next ruling clique of Malawi will come from this crop, the question is how good do we know them, what systems do we have to have right people govern us. Or as in the past, let the strongest win! Mobcracy can be confused with democracy. Good day from Nchalo!

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