Mutharika likely to win 2019 elections, predicts UK Economist Intelligence Unit

A new country report for Malawi released by London-based Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has suggested that President Peter Mutharika will win the presidential elections due in 2019.

President Peter Mutharika: May win in 2019

EIU is one of the world’s most renowned research and analysis institutions and in July last year the institution made similar observations but warned that Mutharika could slip if the economy worsens.

At mean time the country’s economy has rapidly improved with the inflation rate now at 16.10 percent.

“The president, Peter Mutharika, is expected to remain in power, as his rivals are too divided to mount an effective challenge,” reads EIU’s review generated on March 30, 2017.

The EIU made the same prediction in a similar report released in March last year.

The report says it expects Mutharika and the DPP to remain in power throughout the forecast period, securing re-election in the 2019 election.

It says former president  Joyce Banda’s recent announcement that she would return to the Peoples Party (PP) leadership does not threaten Mutharika.

The report says regardless of which party Joyce Banda represents “we consider Mrs. Banda’s electoral prospects to be relatively bleak.”

The EIU says in the minds of voters, Banda still represents an era of Malawian politics that is characterized by corruption.

“Moreover, after the prolonged absence of its leader, the PP will struggle to mobilize the party
machinery to effectively challenge the DPP.

“We maintain our view that the incumbent, Peter Mutharika, is the favourite ahead of
the 2019 presidential election, regardless of whether Ms Banda returns to politics,” it says.

It also notes that fierce divisions in MCP weaken its ability to put up a serious electoral threat while Moses Kunkuyu’s Transformation Alliance (TA) does not have enough organizational status to give it a chance in 2019.

Opposition political parties may resort to take advantage of their numerical advantage in Parliament to attempt to sabotage government business.

However, the EIU says, they would struggle to secure the support base that would enable them to dislodge Mutharika from power come 2019.

It further adds that Malawi’s famed stability is not under threat, although low public confidence in public institutions and a shaky political landscape will continue to frustrate the needed political and economic reform.

It also forecasts that while political volatility may heighten in the run up to and immediately after the elections in 2019 – as has been the case in precious election periods – election-related volatility is unlikely to seriously threaten Malawi’s underlying stability.

According to EIU, Malawi’s democratic processes are reasonably well-established. Because of this attempts to scale any unrest up to a level that could challenge the Mutharika government’s hold on power are unlikely.

But EIU’s predictions have been  welcomed  by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) while the opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) has dismissed it.

Francis Kasaila, spokesman of DPP  said while the party is at an advantage because of its popularity in the populous Southern Region, it is also making inroads in the Central Region, the MCP’s stronghold.

“The EIU predictions could not be far from the truth. DPP is strethening,” Kasaila said.

MCP deputy secretary general Eisenhower Mkaka  played down the prediction that DPP will still win in 2019, saying the opposition has also be strategising on winning the Southern Region.

He said the state of affairs is completely crumbling and everything, ranging from key sectors of agriculture, education and health, is failing thereby making Malawians face the consequences.

Mkaka said the major problem in Malawi is corruption.

“If we root out corruption; we will be on our way to economic development because Escom, water boards, the health system are all failing because of corruption.

“So, the major challenge is how to root out corruption . Malawians will not give mandate of  governing to thieves again,” he said.

 

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53 thoughts on “Mutharika likely to win 2019 elections, predicts UK Economist Intelligence Unit”

  1. winston msowoya says:

    SANTANA,in the first place I would like to warn you that your English is horribly outdated,you better go to a Night School to improve your English jargon.Seondly,you must be ashamed to support Muthalika’s heinous and shameful leadership.If Santana supports the failed President on tribal basis,then he is a traitor to our nation.He continues saying that our villagers who hold 80 percentage of national voters,do not vote on principals (it should be PRINCIPLES,Santana),this indicates to me that you are untutored and therefore,you do not comprehend the current issues of your own country.The massive people from villages,voted massively during the multi-party elections resulted into the defeat of Hastings Banda’s brutal regime,this indicates that people voted their own conscience contrary to your shallow narrative.Right now,100 percent of villagers,acknowledge the fact that the economy is down spiral because,there are no drugs in the clinics,people are starving so on and so forth.If you want to loose votes,leave people with emptied stomachs,the failures of Muthalika’s economic performance,is right now the talk of the day in the rural areas.Come on Santana,get educated.

  2. Amuna Thengo ku NTCHEU says:

    Nkhaniyi ndiopatsa mselu, Azungu dzikoli silawo ndipo they should STOP predicting any a fair in our African countries.
    If you are in your house with your parents nobody should come and say your father is bad or is a good one and expect to do alot. while ine mwana wao ndikuvutika, ndiphula Njerwa za moto.
    I repeat STOP commenting on our fares inu a Zungu a UEI.
    Wait for us the owners of the country to tell you who is our best. APM he dont know the roots of Malawi or malawians how can he lead the people to whom he dont know their roots.
    Mind you we are watching you whatever you are doing, paying money to whites to start cheating us.
    Mulira nonse MMalawi wakwiya zedi.

  3. Mbola says:

    JB to win in 2014 elections! EIU
    According to Al-Jazeera.
    “Among the urban intelligentsia and the people who can read newspapers and who can listen to the radio, I think the scandal had seriously affected her chance,” said Hajat.
    “But votes mostly come from rural areas, where over 60 percent of the population lives. There, she has been pursuing her pro-poor initiatives, which have great impact on rural people as she is portraying a caring mother’s image.”
    In its brief on the country’s elections, the UK-based think-tank Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicted Banda would win amid a split vote between the opposition parties.
    “Helped by a crackdown on graft, a split opposition, and the benefits of incumbency, we expect Mrs Banda and her People’s Party to secure another mandate,” stated the EIU brief.
    Abbas Panjwani
    JB to win in 2014 elections! EIUAccording to Al-Jazeera.”Among the urban intelligentsia and the people who can read newspapers and who can listen to the radio, I think the scandal had seriously affected her chance,” said Hajat.”But votes mostly come from rural areas, where over 60 percent of the population lives. There, she has been pursuing her pro-poor initiatives, which have great impact on rural people as she is portraying a caring mother’s image.”In its brief on the country’s elections, the UK-based think-tank Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicted Banda would win amid a split vote between the opposition parties.”Helped by a crackdown on graft, a split opposition, and the benefits of incumbency, we expect Mrs Banda and her People’s Party to secure another mandate,” stated the EIU brief.

  4. monalisa says:

    This is what EIU says about Malawi on its page ” A split parliament, coupled with widespread popular discontent over high living costs, weak governance and rampant corruption, will stir some political volatility, but underlying stability is expected to remain intact. The economy will remain vulnerable to external shocks, stemming from highly volatile agricultural output, a narrow export base and aid dependency. Amid severe drought, we expect a slowdown in economic growth in the near-term and further inflationary pressures. “

  5. biggy says:

    Malawians displaying their ignorance over Dr Dulani’s report. The report shows trust on APM at 40% compared with other institutions like chiefs, trad leaders, mps etc. 40% is an improvement from 36% he amassed in 2014. If Dr Dulani were to compare this trust with opposition leaders you will be shocked to find that with 40% APM is still the most popular. Is it not true that opposition were banking on a collapsed economy to decampaign APM? Wake up and strategise instead of waiting for crisis and calaminities to dislodge APM.

  6. DOBO says:

    EIU is an international propaganda unit both for political and business institutions which pay for their services to strategise the institutions agenda and consutancy plans. to rigging and monopolising.Most of African rulling parties are customers and some rich people. are also customers including international businesses.They dont just come up with a report without. payment..Their report is always with secret strategic plan to rigging .Open up Malawi.

  7. Yahya Jammeh says:

    The time of this so called research clearly shows the panic mode the DPP is in and the whole thing is fake. Where was the DPP before the Chancellor College research report. Whatever tactics they use, the truth about Dulani’s research will not be erased in our minds and it is only the myopic that will belief the fake research of The Economist. The media should dig deeper to find out the truth about the purported UK reserach. I will rule Gambia for a billion years.

  8. mtete says:

    Funny how the UK Economic Intelligence Unit report comes hot on the heels of Fulani’s Survey. Counter Terrorism?

  9. Nachipanti says:

    The report they are referring to is outdated and its not even on EIU website. These fools are referring to report dated 14 July 2016 and we are in 2017. Osakamba za pano bwanji… muli busy kukamba zinthu zomwe zinachitika maize gate isanaphulitsidwe.. Face the reality angolopiyo inu…

  10. chemuyaya says:

    kkkkkk its too early you DPP to start this mind games. Yesterday you brought your sisters on MBCtv for propaganda. We will vote and we know who to vote for. If APM had brains, he would have pave way for others to lead as he has shown lack of leadership skills.

  11. need to know says:

    Who am I to oppose or be against the findings of the London-based Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU). DPP woyeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. Ngalamayi says:

    ‘His (APM’s) rivals are too divided to mount an effective challenge’! In other words, if the opposition parties stopped fighting amongst themselves and concentrated on being an effective opposition, DPP could lose the next election. Let us hope those other parties come to their senses long before 2019. Otherwise, Malawi is doomed.

  13. Ntchito za DPP kukhalira kunamiza anthu. Prof. Dulani of Chancellor College said Mr. Ibu is the least popular. Izo tinamva tonse. Nanga mwana wa mzungu anafunsa ndani, Ntchetche????

  14. Business says:

    Tinakadyabe eti mpaka 2024. Nakhumwa, macra ndi DPP ife ndiye tadya nawo bo. Long live DPP

  15. gracious gondwe says:

    poor management each and every day talking about corruption in the parliament Malawi will never developed due to corruption, even peter his poor thinking capacity is just think of himself and his corruption, without thinking how people they survive in the rural and urban area, we can not vote peter mthalika in 2019 maybe fore those who are mentally challenge.

  16. santana says:

    Winston Msowoya, you and fellow MCP members have been challenged now and again to produce evidence that the presidential votes were rigged but up to now no one is coming up with the style used to rig the votes. Some were implicating Chilima as if votes can be rigged through phone communication. As if tally centres receive results through phones. None of the top opposition parties is explaining to Malawians how the votes were rigged. So the rigging excuse is just being used to wipe up the embarrassment from the loss.
    Msowoya talks about ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENT. One thing Msowoya forgets is that Malawians whose 80 percent of its voters is in the village do not vote for principals. They just vote for a person because they like him or he comes from their area or speak the same language. If that is the case can Msowoya tell the readers which ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENT made APM to win the votes. Forget about the rigging. Let us talk about realities here. APM had a clean win and there are all indications that he is in the win in 2019. People were told everything about the badness of the DPP and its leaders in the 2014 campaign. Talk of the 61bn later changed to 92bn which was in Bingu’s accounts. Despite all this propaganda Malawians voted the DPP back while the runaway pastor was there in the race. So Winston let it be known to you that the DPP has no challenger in 2019. Not even the cursed pastor.

    1. Mndambala boy says:

      Inuso ndi mbuli inaso pano

  17. Concerned Citizen says:

    This is the right time for opposition to swallow their pride and unite to form one formidable opposition ,it is very possible to remove this current government in 2019.

  18. Uchi says:

    propaganda

  19. mtete says:

    When they talk of squabbles in MCP, they are mostly referring to Jessie Kabwila, Felix Jumbe, Chatinkha Chidzanja and the like. Unless you lot slow down on public renouncements of your party, MCP, we will conclude you are DPP agents. I appeal to you to reflect and assist in revamping the party for the sake of the Nation. Please swallow your pride

    This EIU Report is the work of DPP to counter Dolani’s survey which says The least trusted leader is APM.

    Remember that most fools always want to hear what they would like to hear and disregard or trash the rest. Your time is up DPP.

    1. chingolopiyo says:

      Are you any different. It seems you want to believe only in stories that are against DPP and those that favour MCP. Kusekana zikundu.

      Learn from your own advice before you can think of advising others here

  20. Andrew says:

    These are opinions and the swing of the pendulum may swing to either way, 2 years is a long time, remember Dr Hastings Kamazu Banda

  21. Vinjeru says:

    Iwe Dulani waku Chanco wamvaaaaa?

    2019 DPP ndi landslide kaletuuuu!

    Lazalo chako palibe.

    By the way, this report agrees to the fake report of Dulani somehow. Only that the reporting by Dulani was careless and was full of vengeance and malicious damage. Because APM was given 40% and no party can secure more than 40% singly given the fact that more than 10 presidents actually compete. THEREFORE, all indicators point at Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika come 2019.

    Tamvana zimenezo? Zikoowambere.

    Chitutuko, Chittetezo, Chilungamo,

    DPP, Boooooma!

  22. lester says:

    IT IS THE SAME INSTITUTION THAT PREDICTED JOYCE BANDA WIN IN 2014. WE COULD HEAR GWENGWE TALKING ABOUT IT ALL THE TIME. I AM SURE IT IS GOOD AT PROPHESYING THE LOSERS BY CALLING THEM WINNERS TODAYS

  23. Pangani says:

    Truth be told, Mtharika will have a taunting task to convince Malawians to retain his seat. We are Malawians and we stay here. We know exactly what is the situation on the ground. Those whites were here and might have asked few people and actually we do not their sample size and methodology used. Mtharika’s situation will be worsened with the coming 50 +1. He cant afford to ammase that majority. It will be extremely tough for him. If MCP could put their house in order and consider few alliances, they would completely finish Mthariaka and his DPP in the coming elections.

  24. Chairman says:

    Until Malawi is ignorant of the Immortal Science of Marxism-Leninism, I don’t expect much to change. Obviously, some organization using the methods of Mao could easily lead the rural peasantry to overthrow the false bourgeoise political establishment, but that hasn’t happened yet

  25. cymru says:

    A prediction is not whole truth. It is an opinion expressed based on certain factors. A prediction will always divide people as it is obvious. Supporter of DPP will be happier than that of MCP and other parties in opposition with this current prediction. As others have said, let those in political leadership search themselves if there is any positive development that will convince somebody to change allegiance. I know most educated people are focusing on what is happening in hospitals and other government institutions that provide social services. But remember, the problems that are there might not necessarily be the result of the political party in power. Some people might look things that way. After all since multiparty democracy, majority of Malawians continue to struggle to meet their needs. What assurance is there now that by ushering in a different party things will improve? The opposition which is government in waiting is also desperate and hopeless. May be its too early to say that lets wait next year and beyond as the politicians will be making campaigns to convince people to vote for them. Parties should have yes a stronghold but it is also important to have support in all the corners of Malawi. Some parties are completely dead in some areas. The old people who used to support some party are senile and the young people around don’t know anything. Please, wake up! We want a good competition in 2019. Convince people to vote for you. Remember, some people might not necessarily see the current status quo of Malawi as a result of the party in power.

  26. Masozi Mwenifumbo says:

    A thief not only comes to steal, BUT ALSO TO STEAL, KILL AND DESTROY!!!!

    There is only one way to close these gates of Hell!!!! The Jesus Christ’s way of the truth only!!!. No other at all!!!!

  27. Politics here in Malawi will never change and corruption here will never end unless we will remove and swipe off our stupit mindset of bringing our farmily problems to be sorted using gorvement budget.Or even those people calelld Chakwera and his friends from MCP once being in power they will do the same.To me iwill never trust political people hence they are same and they are from equal farmily.Achakwera,Joice and ur friends ihope u know very well that the world is not returning back we are moving forward therefore we can not allow you again to be in power bcoz we we already know you people.

  28. Masozi Mwenifumbo says:

    In a country where truth, righteousness and justice are being trampled upon left, right, centre without the fear of GOD in our hearts
    , anything may happen. When we said, “Wakuba Yemweyo!!!!” in 1994, the heavens heard us, just as the Israelites had said, “We want
    Barabbas, Not this Jesus Christ!!!!”

    Every planted seed must surely be reaped bountifully sooner or later, regardless of its being good or evil!!!! Unless we genuinely
    REPENT of heart and get truly converted through Christ Jesus, and amend our doings as a nation, starting with us who are the so
    called Christians in accordance with the inerrant Holy Scriptures inspired by the Lord Holy Spirit trought he Prohets and Apostles,
    things are bound to continue worsening. God cannot be mocked!!!! What we choose is what we get, good or evil! With consequences of course.

    Yahweh God is no respecter of persons, and those who choose to spurn His Holy Word surely get their due dues!!!

    May God have mercy on Malawi!!!

  29. Chigananga. says:

    Report tatuluka ya anthu akunja.. Osati ya anthu akuda iyayi. Olo investigations timadalila akunja..

  30. Chief Mpango says:

    good answers for who will win 2019,are from comments on this story, how many are against DPP,

  31. dziko says:

    Zopusa zimenezo sizingatheke 2019 tiona zina osati za DPP ayi!!! EIU ndinu mbuzi ya mano mbali imodzi

  32. Mbolo Sidwala says:

    anafunsa ntchentche amenewo.

  33. chalo nimazgola says:

    Boza liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii. mwawanthu chalo nimazgola mweeee

  34. Blessed Banda says:

    This organisation so called EIU failed to predict elections in their own country where data is very easy to collect. They failed to predict landslide victory of David Cameron and his Conservative Party, failed to predict BreExit and failed again to predict Donald Trump’s victory in USA. What are they talking about for a country where data is not so easy to collect? There must be connections with the DPP with this EIU. Mind you these thugs pay some international organisations for image boosting. DPP is slidding downward each day. In 2014 DPP won by using the image of Bingu’s projects but is has fast been noted that the current leaders are clueless.

  35. Alex Nyalapa says:

    This is a lie, go to hell this is Nankhumwa report who is cheating using credible institutions of UK. If DPP won with 36%, now with heavy and huge corruption beyond PP. DPP now will win with 16%. Were the researchers asking flies or people. I am a goog researcher myself. If first lady is failing kulima musewu wa Ku Khwisa kwawo and you think government can dare kulima musewu Ku Mzimba, not possible at all. Have you forgotten that Malawi Law Commission have adopted 50% +1 Can DPP manage to win this. These researchers are from Bwandilo. The Guardian News Researchers of Nankhumwa who hate Joyce Banda. JB was better than DPP sympathy vote for JB will make MCP win believe me. I saw in my dreams DPP trying to rig votes and they failed until the winner was announced. Chilima technology will not work come 2019. God will control the elections I feel very bitter when you talk of DPP and their leader

    1. sinta says:

      it’s normal to dream my brother but DPp will win like it or hate it.pp has no direction and chakwera and his mcp will never sniff government seats ….am team JESUS since Malawian politics has failed me

  36. Mimosa says:

    Chakwera dakhalabe dero pa benchipo. uzingomenyabe anthu a mchipani chako uzingowachotsabe mchipani and expecting to win in 2019 in that way . wooo! mwauponda!
    bola ukanamaonetsa chikondi kwa anthu a mchipani mwako ngati mmene amapangira APM a loving leader, APM sakwiya nsanga kapena kuthamanga mwazi kuchotsa nduna yake ngati a Chakwera wandeu. Chakwera ndi wopasula, AP Muthalika ndi mtsogoleri womanga chipani ndi wopilira, ndipo wokhululuka!
    Abusa lekani kupitikitsa nkhosa zanu adzakugwirani dzanja ndani nanga?

  37. petermustfall says:

    tumizanitu a MRA

  38. Nyerere ndiye ineyo says:

    Oh my God!!! Which Malawi will the big thief rule again??? You the so-called researchers come to Malawi and visit village by village and see for yourself if the economy has improved. I would love if you stated in your research findings that Mutharika will again rig the elections to remain in power in 2019. Who can vote for DPP again to rule Malawi? Go in hospitals you will find no drugs, ambulances are grounded yet somebody is keeping close to 200 million in his house and billions in the banks. Only mentally I’ll patients will vote for DPP which is using some government machineries to oppress others. Even Mutharika himself knows very well he can’t rule again. How many gates do we have so far? Almost 95% of Malawians have lost trust in him.
    To hell with your research.

  39. wapsa tonola says:

    Bodza lamkunkhuniza

  40. The Pillar says:

    Peter Mutharika will be happy with this now. This time I think the EIU team asked toilet flies as this is a stinking result, last time the Chanco guys were talking house flies the result angered the corrupt leader, Malawians have lost trust in him.

  41. Ndasauka says:

    A busa mwamvaaa, akuti zanutuuu zadaa 2019 kkkkkkkkkkkk

  42. ANALYST says:

    MCP wake up please – this warning has come a good 2 years away from the elections. Dont sleep and then be caught unawares in 2019 – Laz Chakwera, Rich Msowoya, Eisenhower Mkaka, Jessie Kabwira, Joseph Njobvuyalema, Gustav Kaliwo, and everyone of goodwill – solve your differences and ctart working towards 2019! Ndakuuzani ine!

  43. Mndambala boy says:

    Are you God? We are tired of your prediction or what so ever you call it, Malawians doesn’t eat prediction to live, so stop cheating people in the name of predictions, why disturbing people’s rights? You bunch of fools, why didn’t you predict about the one who came and attack UK and killed a policeman last month? Leave Malawi for Malawians.

  44. noxy says:

    I dont believe this

  45. Yahya Jammeh says:

    There were so many of such predictions for Hilary Clinton to the extent that Trump lost in all the presidential debates. Tell me who is the President of the US today? You win a war through a strategy, not the size of the military. What the economist has said is good which may give good political players to room to strategize and strengthen their chances of winning while those that are predicted to be winners will be complacent. – that’s where the equation goes wrong. I will rule Gambia for a billion years.

  46. winston msowoya says:

    If Muthalika will win the next elections as predicted by the so-called UK-ECONOMIST-INTELLIGENCE UNIT,it will be through the same mode of the last elections-rigging.In most cases,authentic election outcome,is won when the masses of the voters,are satisfied with the ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENT of the ruling regime.So as far as the Muthalika regime is concerned,the economy of our country is upside down,what will therefore entice the voters to cast their votes in favour of the rogue regime? What we see here,is a CONSPIRACY THEORY by the Intelligence Unit and the ravaged people of Malawi,will never accept that crooked path again.With the nation’s boat sailing with the badly damaged sails,it will be a miracle on the side of Muthalika and his gang of thieves to win the next elections as the early campaigns predicted.With billions of Kwacha Muthalika and his gangs have stolen from government coffers,Malawians must not expect free and fair elections.GOOD LUCK MUTHALIKA AND HIS GANG OF THIEVES!!!!!!!

  47. Trendex says:

    WILL MUTHARIKA SEND MRA TEAM TO EIU FOR THEIR PREDICTION THE WAY HE DID TO OUR OWN SON AT CHANCO? OR DID THE EIU CREW AT THIS TIME ASKED FLIES AGAIN? WHY ARE WE NOT HAPPY WITH OUR OWN LOCAL RESEARCH FINDINGS? MAY BE THE EIU IS TRYING TO STRATEGIZE ITSELF TO FIND SPACE FOR INVESTMENT? CHIDZADZIWA NCHIPANDE POWOMOLA.

  48. CHIM says:

    TIZIPANI TACHULUKA
    TOPANDA PAKE

  49. Vuto ndi loti even Mr.Chakwera is taking us nowhere,how can the so called man of God link up with Simbi whose source income raises many eyebrows,I doubt if he will ever rule this God fearing nation

  50. Manganya has lost focus

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