Analysts say unpredictable outcome in Malawi presidential fresh polls

Political analysts have said  the election of the country’s President for the next five years in a court-ordered fresh presidential election on Tuesday remains  unpredictable.

An elderly couple arrives by ox-cart to vote at Malembo polling centre in Lilongwe
Voter kneels down to pray before casting his vote

Although there are three  presidential candidates, Tuesday’s election is largely between the 80-year-old  President Peter Mutharika and his main rival, 66-year-old Lazarus Chakwera.

Analysts Sheriff Kaisi said both candidates have massive supporters from rural areas where over 80% of the population lives. Mutharika comes from the southern region, while Chakwera comes from the central region.

“Probably, the upper hand will be the one who will control the regions, for example,” Kaisi said in quotes reported by Voice of  America. “So, the one who controls that larger part of the regions definitely is going to carry the day.”

Lilongwe-based political scientist Godfrey Pumbwa said the game change will be when more  registered voters will turn up this year, including those who did not vote last year.

In the May 21 2019 Tripartite Elections, the 6 859 570 registered voters, 1 753 587 people or 25.56 percent did not turn up and 74 719 votes were null and void.

Mustafa Hussein, a political analyst who teaches at Chancellor College—a constituent college of the University of Malawi, said  political parties and the court proceedings have played a big role to raise awareness on the importance of fresh presidential elections and could see many who  did not vote in last year’s elections turn up to cast their ballots.

In the annulled election, Mutharika got 1.9 million votes, representing 38.57 percent and  Chakwera polled 1.7 million (35.41 percent).

However,  theb fresh presidential election will be the first in the country to be determined using the 50-percent-plus-one system following the court’s interpretation of majority in Section 80(2) of the Constitution. Previously, winners were declared President based on simple majority or first-past-the-post.

This forced Mutharika, leader of the ruling Democratic Progress Party (DPP), to form an alliance with the United Democratic Front (UDF), whose leader Atupele Muluzi came in fourth with 5% of the vote during the annulled polls.

Chakwera, leader of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), formed an alliance with nine other opposition parties, including the UTM, whose leader, Vice President Saulos Chilima, got 20% of the vote in the annulled election.

MCP and UTM Party—who challenged the May 21 2019 presidential results, want to prove through this election that the previous Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) robbed them of clear victory through “irregularities”.

On the other hand, the DPP want to prove that they “won” the May 21 2019 presidential election fair and square.

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Good critic Mtamba
Good critic Mtamba
8 months ago

Let’s wait until tomorrow little numbers I win analysis myself

Nzika
Nzika
8 months ago

Unpredictable today? Mmesa munati a research alozera kale?

Livulezi river
Livulezi river
8 months ago

These are fake analysts , who are as good as betters
Even I, can ably predict the outcome than these so called fake analysts
What difference do they make from a village fool who can’t read and write ?
Any sane analysist worth their salt cud have known straight that Tonse alliance is winning
No doubt about that
Mark this page!!

Chaha
Chaha
8 months ago

Lero mukuti unpredictable? Mayesa mumati mukudziwa wowina?

Jerusalem Bible College
Jerusalem Bible College
8 months ago

Those are not analysts but commentators. There is nothing they analysis. True analyst knows it’s Chakwela winning.

Malisache pa Kwawo
Malisache pa Kwawo
8 months ago

Are these street analysts????……. kapena foreign analysts ??? ……..kapena denial analysts???

Sikelo Gonani
Sikelo Gonani
8 months ago

Kkkkk…. Koma ndiye, it looks like they fit all male he three descriptions

polofesa nungu
polofesa nungu
8 months ago

tatopa ndi gogoyu

Mangochi Kabwafu
Mangochi Kabwafu
8 months ago

It’s tonse alliance landslide.

Ten
Ten
8 months ago

They are predictable

H E Nyaphapi One
8 months ago

Blantyre has been ‘bought’ by Chakwera. Lilongwe is obvious. Mutharika has Thyolo and Mulanje. By 0600hrs Wed 24 June 20020 Chakwera is new Malawi President.

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