Chakwera Gains Significant Momentum in Final Moments, IPOR Survey Reveals
The latest nationally representative survey from the Institute for Public Opinion and Research (IPOR) indicates a significant shift in voter intentions, revealing that incumbent President Dr. Lazarus Chakwera and the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) are gaining decisive momentum in the final weeks of the campaign period.
While the survey shows a competitive race, the most telling data is found in the trend-lines. The IPOR report, which compared results from July to a follow-up survey in late August, shows that support for President Chakwera has grown by five percentage points since the official launch of campaign activities.
Conversely, the survey indicates that support for his main challenger, former President Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has dipped by two percentage points over the same period.
Political analysts see the positive swing for Chakwera as a critical indicator of shifting voter sentiment in the final moments of the campaign
“Elections are often won in the final weeks,” commented a political analyst familiar with the data. “A five-point gain is not just a bump; it’s a wave. It suggests the President’s message is resonating and connecting with undecided voters at a crucial time.”
The survey further solidifies President Chakwera’s position by highlighting his impregnable strength in the Central Region, home to 44% of Malawi’s adult population.
The data shows a commanding 56% of decided voters in the region back the incumbent, providing a formidable electoral base.
Another key finding that points to a fluid race is the size of the undecided bloc.
The IPOR survey found that a combined 16% of registered voters (representing a significant portion of the electorate) have either not yet made a decision on their candidate or refused to disclose it.
This large pool of voters, particularly concentrated in the competitive Northern Region, is seen as the key to victory.
“With this level of momentum, the undecided voters are breaking towards the campaign that is on the move,” the analyst added. “Chakwera’s message on agriculture and economic management appears to be aligning with the priorities of the electorate at the right moment.”
The IPOR survey, conducted between August 14 and 27, 2025, interviewed a nationally representative sample of 2,400 adult Malawians across all regions. It has a margin of error of +/- 2%.
As the nation moves closer to Election Day, this data suggests a highly dynamic political landscape, with President Chakwera and the MCP capturing the campaign’s momentum and positioning themselves for a strong finish.
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