IPOR Poll: Chakwera Jumps to 31% (+5), Mutharika Slips to 41% (-2) as Opposition Vote Splits

President Lazarus McCarthy Chakwera has gained five percentage points to hit 31% in the latest Institute of Public Opinion and Research (IPOR) poll, while Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Peter Mutharika has dropped two points to 41%, signalling a clear shift in voter sentiment just two weeks before Malawians head to the ballot.

The survey, released today in Lilongwe, shows that Chakwera is steadily closing the gap on Mutharika as the opposition’s once-dominant Southern Region vote continues to fragment.

Analysts point to Chakwera’s vigorous grassroots campaigning, his relatable messaging, and the choice of Vitumbiko Mumba as running mate as key factors driving the upward momentum.

“So far, Chakwera is the only candidate running a proper, ground-level campaign. He connects directly with people, and Malawians are responding,” observed one expert.

The poll also shows Chakwera is the most recognized presidential candidate in Malawi, with 85% awareness compared to Mutharika’s 79%. Among running mates, Mumba emerges as the most favorable, outpacing even the better-known former Malawi Electoral Commission chairperson, Jane Ansah.

With 11% of voters still undecided, respected commentator Stanley Onjezani Kenani has described the upward trajectory as a potential “game changer” in the September 16 elections.

Blantyre-based political analyst Suzgo Malani echoed the sentiment, stressing: “The Chakwera–Mumba ticket has the right momentum going into the final stretch. If this trajectory continues, we could be looking at a historic upset.”

The poll, conducted in mid-August, suggests that voter sentiment is shifting rapidly — and may yet tilt further before Malawians cast their votes.

 

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