Mutharika stages historic comeback to Malawi Presidency: A vote of protest against MCP

When Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika announced his return to the political stage as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) torchbearer for the September 16 General Elections, few expected the former President of Law to rewrite the political script so decisively.

Five years after being voted out in 2020, Mutharika returned as head of state, securing a clear victory even as opinion polls had signaled the possibility of a runoff.

This dramatic reversal of fortune saw Mutharika not only reclaim power from Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) but also set a political record of twice defeating incumbents, a trend increasingly observed across Africa.

Pre-election surveys by the Institute of Public Opinion and Research (IPOR) consistently showed Mutharika ahead of Chakwera.

In the initial survey, he polled 43 percent compared to Chakwera’s 26 percent, a 17-point lead that narrowed slightly in subsequent polls but remained substantial.

Analysts had predicted a runoff, arguing that no candidate was likely to surpass the 50 percent plus one vote (50%+1) threshold without strategic alliances.

Yet, when ballots were counted, the narrative shifted: of the 7.2 million registered voters, approximately 5,502,982 turned out to vote, and Mutharika secured 3,035,249 votes, representing 56.8 percent of valid votes, surpassing the threshold outright.

Chakwera, by contrast, received 1,765,170 votes, representing 33.0 percent of the total valid votes cast.

For many ordinary Malawians, the results reflected accumulated frustrations under the MCP administration.

Steve Banda, a second-hand clothes vendor in Kasungu District, said, “I am not surprised. Life had become so unbearable under the MCP, and people wanted change.”

He added, “Even in parliamentary elections, MCP only managed five seats out of 11 constituencies in Kasungu and four out of 10 in Dowa, yet these are MCP strongholds. That says a lot.”

Mutharika’s victory carries a note of irony, as just five years earlier he was ousted in what many hailed as a democratic breakthrough after the Constitutional Court annulled the disputed 2019 elections, forcing a fresh poll in 2020.

Riding a wave of public discontent that triggered nationwide demonstrations over alleged mismanagement by the Malawi Electoral Commission, Chakwera and the MCP-led Tonse Alliance defeated Mutharika in that election.

At the time, many Malawians believed a new chapter had begun, as Chakwera pledged economic transformation, job creation, and integrity in public service under his Hi5 agenda.

Mutharika, however, had warned the electorate: “You will remember me sooner than later.”

True to his word, the past five years of Chakwera’s regime were marked by forex scarcity, fuel queues, inflation, fertilizer shortages, and a rising cost of living.

“This time, the burden of incumbency fell on MCP. What once cost Mutharika his presidency now served as the wind beneath his comeback,” said Mike Elioti, a voter in Kasungu District.

In this sense, the 2025 election was less about nostalgia for the DPP than a referendum on MCP’s governance record.

During his earlier presidency from 2014 to 2020, Mutharika oversaw infrastructural expansion, including road projects and electricity generation under the Malawi Rural Electrification Programme.

His government also implemented digital reforms such as the Citizen Identity Registration exercise, regarded as a milestone in modern governance.

Critics, however, accused the administration of being aloof and slow to act during crises—a perception Chakwera’s team leveraged during the Tonse Alliance campaign.

Over the past five years, allegations of corruption and nepotism weakened public trust, while economic challenges such as forex shortages, erratic fuel supply, and rising inflation undermined confidence in MCP’s capacity to govern effectively.

Despite joining the campaign late—three weeks after the official period began—Mutharika’s strategy was disciplined.

He avoided exhausting nationwide tours, opting instead for fewer but highly symbolic rallies in strategic areas.

His message remained consistent: the economy is in crisis, life is unbearable, and only his leadership can restore stability.

“You made a mistake to vote me out in 2020, but I have forgiven you,” he told a cheering crowd in Ntcheu. “I accepted to come back so that I can rescue this country from the economic problems we are experiencing under the MCP.”

At rallies in Mulanje and Katoto in Mzuzu City, he repeatedly described Malawi as being in a “rotten state,” crippled by shortages and rising costs, positioning himself as the savior of a nation on the brink of collapse.

Political analyst Wonderful Mkhuche believes Mutharika’s victory was largely driven by public dissatisfaction with Chakwera.

“I’m not surprised because surveys by institutions like IPOR predicted that Mutharika would lead the race. The results simply confirm those predictions. Mostly, the vote the DPP has received is a protest vote,” Mkhuche said.

“People voted for the DPP because MCP failed to fulfill its promises,” he added.

Mkhuche cautioned, however, that the DPP must not take its victory or voters for granted.

“The votes have been given on condition that the party acts better than the MCP. The DPP we have today is the same that was voted out in June 2020. Their challenge is to reform, identify competent partners, and fulfill their promises,” he said.

The DPP Manifesto promises an increased Constituency Development Fund to at least K5 billion per constituency annually, K200 million for women and youth businesses, free secondary education, civil servant housing, economic rebuilding, ending energy problems, and reducing government extravagance through a leaner cabinet.

Though familiar in Malawian politics, these promises were framed as a new deal—a chance for voters to reset after five turbulent years.

Remarkably, Mutharika commanded significant youth support, with IPOR surveys indicating that nearly half of youthful voters favored him, despite attacks on his age.

Across Africa, such cases reflect a volatile electorate willing to punish failure, recycle old leaders, and insist that performance, rather than rhetoric, defines legitimacy.

From a crowded field of 17 candidates, voters pinpointed the DPP leader, hoping for a better life.

Mutharika’s return to State House is historic but carries a heavy burden of expectations, as citizens like Steve Banda demand tangible improvements at household level.

“People just wanted change and we will be happy if the change we have voted for translates into real relief,” Banda said.

If Mutharika delivers on his promises, his second coming will be remembered as a vindication of the principle of “returning to proven leadership,” the DPP’s campaign slogan.

For now, he re-enters Kamuzu Palace as a comeback hero, granted a rare second chance after a five-year hiatus.

As he begins another five-year mandate, the stakes are high, celebrations loud, and public expectations even louder, with a deeply strained economy and a restless citizenry demanding quick results.

Concluding Analysis :

Mutharika’s victory illustrates the power of public sentiment and the volatility of the Malawian electorate.

While the DPP’s win was facilitated by Chakwera’s governance missteps, it also demonstrates that incumbency is fragile in the face of economic hardship, unmet promises, and declining public trust.

The challenge ahead for Mutharika lies not only in governing effectively but in meeting heightened expectations, restoring economic stability, and avoiding the pitfalls that previously undermined his administration.

For Malawi, the election underscores a broader political lesson: voters reward performance, penalize failure, and remain vigilant in holding leaders accountable.

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