Malawi watershed elections: Attempting to see who has an edge
As the nation treads towards the May 21 tripartite elections, the mood is extremely electric. Politicians are criss-crossing the country to canvass for votes.
As it is often the case with campaign seasons in Malawi, various players, some with poisonous interests, join the fray to try and define the political narrative with the aim of achieving their objectives such as putting people they like in power.
As the political temperatures rise steadily, it is almost clear that it will be a four-party and four-horse presidential race on May 21.
Malawi Congress Party (MCP), in opposition since 1994, faces an uphill battle to topple the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is likely to ride on its notable social and economic development achievements over the last five years, such as new roads and improvement of the roads infrastructure and high-performing and stable economy, to win the forthcoming polls.
President Peter Mutharika, presidential candidate for DPP, seems likely to retain the ‘throne’ due to a number of factors, including his emphasis on developing this country to unimaginable levels and thereby elevating Malawi to a middle-class economy.
However, APM, as he is fondly called by the DPP faithful, faces competition from MCP’s candidate, Reverend Dr. Lazarus Chakwera. Chakwera is campaigning on a ‘Hi 5’ platform where he is agitating for “servant leadership, prospering together, ending corruption, rule of law and national unity”.
While Chakwera’s Hi 5 vibe seems to resonate well with some of the voters, it may not be enough to propel Chakwera and MCP into the corridors of power come May 21 because of the MCP’s ‘dark’ past. Most elderly Malawians seem not to have forgotten the various horrific atrocities that the MCP regime committed against many Malawians during its 30-year rule.
As one analyst recently observed, MCP also fails to inspire new generations of voters at each and every general election because of their inability to intelligently stick to a fair acceptance of their own history.
He wrote: “There have been many times when MCP has made public apologies to Malawians for their atrocious past and very notorious disregard to human rights. But all those apologies and ‘crocodile tears’ have been backfiring because in practice, the party has not yet figured out how to walk their talk.”
Another ‘hot’ presidential contender is UTM’s Saulos Klaus Chilima. He is the serving State Vice President who fell out of grace with his boss and formed his own political party to challenge Mutharika and DPP.
While Chilima and his UTM have achieved some tremendous strides in establishing their own political mark, the window of opportunity of winning the next elections is very small because time has not been their best friend.
UTM does not have grassroots structures to bank on for voter mobilization due to time and resource constraints. This was clearly evident during the party’s primary elections, which turned out to be arguably the worst and most chaotic than any other primaries in this multiparty dispensation.
The significance of the contribution of strong grassroots party structures cannot be overemphasized as far as winning national elections are concerned.
Chilima, the individual, faces fierce public mistrust for his sudden attacks against a government that he ‘quietly’ served for four years.
Some Malawians question his integrity and honesty when he criticizes the DPP and its leadership of corruption and abuse of power when he continues to enjoy lucrative government privileges, including a monthly salary and state security. They argue that if he was genuine in his criticism of alleged corruption in government, he could have resigned his position as State VP but as things are, Malawians cannot trust him with the top most position of Head of State.
In this scenario, DPP and APM become the likely winners in the next two weeks. The DPP is reputed to have won all national elections it has participated in since its inception in 2005. Actually, in 2009, the party and its presidential candidate, won with a landslide, winning parliamentary seats in some traditional MCP stronghold central region districts.
In 2012, the DPP was visited by the misfortune of the sudden death in office of President Bingu wa Mutharika. DPP automatically became an opposition party because the then Vice President Joyce Banda, who had formed her own People’s Party (PP) due to earlier fallout with the DPP, became President as required by the constitution.
But Banda and PP’s stay in government was very short. DPP went on to reclaim government following the 2014 tripartite elections and APM became the new Head of State.
Since 2014, APM has demonstrated a detailed understanding of the social and economic challenges that Malawians, especially the rural poor, face. He has so far pursued and implemented pro-poor social and economic policies that have tremendously improved the people’s socio-economic status.
APM and the DPP have brought the economy back from the brink of collapse in 2014 following the Cashgate scandal that occurred during the Joyce Banda administration.
Inflation is at single digit while foreign exchange is in abundance; bank lending rates have been substantially reduced; and the price of fuel has remained static for unprecedentedly long time.
Under APM and DPP, massive improvements are being implemented in the power sector to boost the manufacturing sector as well as boost small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
The education system has been revamped, and the community college dream is now a reality. There is almost a community technical college in every district in this country and APM is promising a community technical college in each constituency in order to mould the youths into skilled and productive citizens.
Under APM, there have been massive investments in the tourism sector. Five-star hotels have been constructed in Lilongwe, Blantyre and Mangochi and the Liwonde-Mangochi road has just been rehabilitated to boost tourism, helping the country earn the much-needed foreign exchange through the tourism sector.
Stadiums have also been constructed in Mangochi, Mulanje, Kasungu and Karonga, among others while other districts now boast state-of-the-art markets and bus terminals.
Democratic institutions have also flourished under Mutharika and are working smoothly without interference. Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) are able to criticize APM without any recriminations like it was in the past under other governments.
With the foregoing, it is likely that most voters will cast their vote in favour of ‘development’ and not ‘politics’.
- The author is a Lilongwe-based social scientist
Boma iloooooooo! May 21 Tiwinanso mukhaula anyani inu mungopanga maphokoso! Boma samayendesa ana akhanda ovala mathewela ayi koma anthu okhwima nzeru ngati The Proffessor!
Clear DPP spin. Deep down, the so called analyst knows he is not being truthful. MCP is winning this election. DPP will be second with UDF on third. The noisy UTM bunch will anchor 4th position
Is this analysis or personal opinion based on the author’s inclination to oNe said Political Party??????
agogo pitala mutharika akhala pa number 3, olo atayesera kupanga zobera sizitheka kumwamba kwakana
Wa DPP uyu!
Kath Mainga, to hell with your shit, preconceived and biased analysis. Which development has your nganga brought to Malawi? The rampant thieving, glaring nepotism, limitless mediocrity, shameful corruption and crookedness perhaps? Who in their right senses can give this stinking party a vote? Only bastards and thieves can do that. On the other hand, you deliberately ignore that the MCP of the moment is full of new blood. It is a new force based on sound principles, the Chakwera SUPER Hi5! if anything, the persons who committed atrocities during the one party era are in the DPP that you worship and praise. Kath, dont feign ignorance. Whether you like it or not MCP is forming the next Government because it is the only national political party of the moment. This old, tried and tested institution is not founded on family, tribal, cultural or regional affiliation. It is not a fiefdom ruled by a tribal lord. I cant talk about UTM. UTM is not a party. it doesnt have a foundation. It is a grouping of disgruntled DPP mafias that have nothing to bring to Malawians apart from continuing the DPP legacy in disguise.
Kodi anthu a dpp mukamati chilima akudya ndalama za boma mumatanthauza chani? Ndalama zathu not za peter,iye anathawamo chifukwa cha usilu wake umenewu.Thats why amadana ndi mnyamatayu,tandiyankheni liti lomwe inuyo munamva kumbali ya boma kuti chilima ku office kwake kwasowa ndalama zakuti.Time up for dpp basi mwaba zokwana ena apange zina,tione zina abale why kukakamila a dpp?
Fundamentally Nkhoma Synod zimenezo.
delusions at their best
The author is a DPP cadet masquereding as a social scientist. .. This author is not balancing up facts. This piece is a pure campaign tool that can only be taken seriously by their bed fellows. DPP as it stands now can not win the 21 May 2019 elections. Prepare yourselves psychologically for the loss please.
On the contrary, MCP is the likely winner of the forth coming elections. Every one now knows that those who commited the atrocities during the one party rule are no longer with MCP. Most of them passed on and the few who are still living joined other political parties including the dying DPP. To say that people still associate MCP with the dark past in these elections is an error in calculation. An objective analysis based on voting pattern of previous elections clearly put MCP at a better chance of victory more than any other party. A skilled analyst would observe that DPP has lost memebers over the years more than it has added. This scenario is the opposite of what has happened with MCP in the recent past. The author above has also failed in his arguments to mention that Malawans are still bitter with DPP because of corruption and countless number of gates under its watch, not forgeting killings of innocent people whose investigations are failing to start to the present day. It would remain a fact that the above is a personal opinion and the truth is what will happen on 21 May.
Mwanenadi zowona apatu chilungamo chimawawa. dpp izawina mosakayikanso
Kath Mainga, your “social scientist” skills showing thru and thru. Much appreciated.
The “horse” race is now thinning out, as we get near the end. And, at this juncture, the Presidential race is really between APM and oChakwera baasi.
Chilima is made irrelevant or redundant – ditto regarding UTM in the Parliamentary race – for reasons you have given, among others.
MCP is saddled by their history – societies do NOT forget atrocities so fast and easily. And forgiveness is not assured, especially when responsibility is not acknowledged, and meaningful punishment not meted out. And real costs (compensation) not exacted.
I still think, as Malawians, we made a serious strategic political error by not ABOLISHING MCP at the end of Kamuzu’s dictatorship, considering the blood the Party and their Wamuyaya Leader spilled; and overall bad governance, even by the standards around that time in this part of the world. Only in Malawi!
Oppositions usually don’t win elections, rather the ruling Party loses them. APM was onto something when he saw infrastructure (like good roads) as the gateway to economic development. And he’s NOT taking anything for guaranteed – witness the current furious rate of campaigning, just as much as MCP.
As suddenly as Chilima came onto the political scene, he will also suddenly and quickly disappear in political sunset in two weeks. To enjoy his undeserved pension! Disingenuous fella.
No Party will probably win a majority of the Parliamentary races: back to where we were the last time.
UTM may end up with only one of two seats, and with those two eventually joining a major Party. UTM supporters think their Party is popular throughout the country; but the support is so diluted that, in the end, their constituency numbers will be meaningless in terms of winning a seat.
IMHO.
Am not DPP but your article sound good even it means that you’re pro-dpp
Well done Kainga. SPOT on analysis. Those who are not happy mumwa tameki pa 21st May.
A Opposition bvomelezani. Munthu akuwina uyu !
. . . a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
DPP in stooge.Which hotel has the DPP constructed in Lilongwe and Mangochi.?Arent you aware that the proposed Hotel at Monkeybay in Mangochi failed to take shape.Most of the community colleges have been constructed in the lomwe belt.We are not kids minister.The blue season is over.
Mainga what have u been drinking? Which country do u live in? APM can not win this election. No one wants him apart from those close to him who have benefited directly from his corrupt regime. People haven’t forgotten about 145 million that he corruptly received, maize gate orchestrated by chaponda, what about corruption at immigration, escom, macra. Mainga do another analysis when your hangover clears.
Fotseq
This is nothing but the truth analysis of things on the ground wina afune asafune.
Stupid analysis..,..you cannot analyze all people correctly…..this election is so unpredictable…..
State of the art markets and bus terminals??When shall we start to be sincere about ourselves?
Looking at the political temperature, DPP has shrinked too low, and looking @ the political topogragraphy and the Malawi voting pattern …. CHAKWERA will emerge the winner in this comming elections…
We can confidently say Chakwera may perfom low in the Lomwe belt but extremely high in the lower shire.. MCP will perform to a near average in the eastern region where UDF will read , Chakwera will accumulate overwhelming votes in central region..MCP will trend averagely in the northern region where UTM chilima will have a narrow read..Chilima will canvas more votes in towns of cause with mixed percentages .
All in all CHAKWERA WILL READ in 21 May Elections .
Chakwera can READ, Am sure Chilima will LEAD.
This is a complete trash,
What about Mk145million stolen by him??
What about quota system he is promoting?
What about security lapse on Albinos ?
What about Njaunju disappearance?
What about the no where about of the proceed from the sale of Malawi Saving Bank?
What about Policegate Kareem no action till now?
What about Batawalala Immigration gate no action till now?
What about Maize gate cover up?
And etc.
Eish! sorry to say that DPP has totally failed in most strategic areas . Never again to cast my vote for a failed party.
Let me tell you brother. You have missed it big time. Chakwera and Peter do not have the requisite skills and leadership acumen required to take us beyond 2019. Chilima is the right candidate for the job. He has the audacity to call a spade a spade without beating about the bush. He does not only say but does what he says. He is a pragmatist who has held a leadership position at the top of a corporate entity. Whilst the other two main contenders in the name of Chakwera and Peter have spent the rest of their lives as teachers at institutions of higher learning and not as implementers. They have spent most of their lives talking but are not good as implementers. We need leadership that is able to act with haste in addressing issues not just remaining aloof and not in sync with issues on the ground. Behaving as if they come from an elite class of humans.
Unakangokhala chete. Palibe Cha mzeru chalembedwa apa. This elctions is not about political blocks it’s about who is showcasing the right strategies, period. Your old fashioned thinking is no relevant in this election.
Yes come RAIN or SUNSHINE the might DPP will carry the DAY come 21st May 2019, I very much conquer with the writer of this article it is said ACTION SPEAKS MUCH LOUNDER THAN WORDS without mincing words APM has delivered and he deserves to Winthe elections.
I wonder if this social scientist is honest. By the way if Muthalika revamped the economy why Malawi is no 4 from the poverty index countries.
Why this guy can not talk of MK145Million Muthalika pocketed
Why this reporter can not explain billions stolen day by day that amount to one trillion kwacha dpp and Muthalika have stolen
Why this reporter can explain where is Mombera university
Why this reporter can not explain Muthalika shield thieves during his 5 rule.
Malawians will not for development as you have said let correct you. Malawians will vote for change and change is coming on 21 May 2019. Ichi ndichaka cha mayankho talira nthawi yayitali a Malawi we do not want be ruled by malemu any more. MCP Chakwera is ascending to power on 21 May ndipo mukomoka heavy adpp
The author is PRO-DPP. Why writing only good side of DPP without making mention of high CORRUPTION and NEPOTISM on its face????? On Crocodile tears of MCP, Did u conduct a research?? On time being a nemesis to UTM, who did u ask????
Ngati zolemba zinasowa ukanangolemba nyimbo izi mzabodza you’re not representing the general understanding of things on the ground by the populace.wait for 22 may udzalila pyeeee.
Saying that Malawi has developed ton unprecedented levels just shows the writers lack exposure to what a developed country look like and in turn his/her own sycophancy. I forgive you.
You are DPP hand lapper just say so rather trying to mask yourself as an analyst that want to independently look who has an edge in the forthcoming Presidential elections.
The analysis has left out other factors that influence Malawi voters. In Malawi real issues don’t matter
the perception of change once it grips the populace it does not matter kulima mseu , chitukuko or character
of the party individual in government or opposition , this is why independents win in constituencies of ruling party or opposition
My view is winner will have narrow margin among the Three main contenders Chakwera, Chilima and Mutharika
Usova ndi poor analysis yako yofoilayo
I definetely second all this analyst has narrated really ! Thats exactly wat will hapen !
Pro DPP not even surprised with your baised analysis akumudwa, your baised analysis will be judged wrong in the coming two weeks with popular votes.
Smells dpp.
Why can’t this author just say he will vote for thalika, instead of coming up with lies, lies and more lies? Under thalika we have seen the worst blackout patterns in every corner of the country, political violence is the order of the day due to his cadets being given immunity, we have seen suspects die unnaturally in supposedly maximum security police cells, we have seen our brothers with albinism being mercilessly butchered in broad daylight. just recently the fuel price has been hiked a couple times in a period of six months. I am truly tempted to think this author does not know anything about Malawi let alone understand poverty or better yet socio-economic parameters. There are a lot of indicators that shows his regime is a failed administration, nothing less, if anything he has more than failed, he’s EVIL. How someone in their right frame of mind would think he’s achieved anything tangible is beyond me. The man hasn’t even tried to take this country forward.
Malawi is surely an amazing country in the world. Imagine
1: the President finds himself at the centre of corruption scandal involving a government department where proceeds of the vice were deposited into an account of which he is the sole signatory. Guess what ? this man is still in power and is seeking another term.
2: minister of home affairs is implicated in setting a braze an office for the country’s electoral body. This man is still minister and minister of internal security for that matter.
3: a cabinet minister showing his private ( genital) parts ( maliseche – mbulanda ) all over the place including primary school children seeing his maliseche in the media. This man is still a cabinet minister. Minister of trade to be blunt.
*Surely, I am speechless*.
All these are normal things in malawi. In a civilized world none of these people ( social misfits ) would be anywhere near positions of authority not to mention presidency or cabinet position
Keep this article of yours you Mainga and you will be shocked that the Presidential Candidate whom you are despising today will carry the day. Mark my words and lets meet here again after the results.
Rubbish. You call this an analysis. Kuchita kuonekeratu kuti uyu ndi cadet. Mulira simunati. Its just less than two weeks to the polls. Mutafuniletu kwasalaku chifukwa muzakhala mukuthawa.
Nkhani ndiye izi ..kuwerenga from top to bottom..where were you all these months ..
The author of the article is a true supporter of the DPP
Anthu oyenera ma scholarship a journalism ndi awa ..God bless You KW Mainga
A DPP sponsored article who do you want to blind,these are the ringing strategies so that Malawian should accept results no way, not this time around …………………Its either Chakwera or Chilima
Good write up osati za anthu odyetsedwa ma banzi ayi
Wadya zambiri galu…
Mark my word!
The battle is between MCP and UTM
Majority of Malawians will not vote for your DPP. You are to show statistical evidence to tell who is leading in counts. Otherwise you are entitled to your opinion but bit the facts
This is mature and proffessional Journalism osakondera mbali but for Malawians to make an informed choice.
.
hhahahahahaha biased writing , CHKWERA WILL CARRY THE DAY SECONDED BY CHILIMA, OSAT BODZA LAKOLI UKUDYA NAWO ZAKUBA IWE
Zimvere mumtolo neighbour.
Paid up article I guess. Limited truth, full of blue instigated statements . Mwauponda! Dr. Laz is a clear winner this time around.
What a load of partisan nonsense from a “Lilongwe based social scientist” which is basically code for a clown. Just wait for 21st May, Vote then seat down by the radio or TV. Then you can analyse the results.
Which poll did you use to determine Mutharika’s victory? Where is going to get the votes? If Malawi comprises of Phalombe, Chiradzulu Mulanje and Thyolo I would agree with you. Aren’t you the same type of analysts that fooled Joyce in 2014 that she would win with a landslide victory?
Fortunately there are very few Old Timers who still think about the Ntaba/Dausi era MCP which, thank heavens, is gone forever. Come to think of it, this government is even more ruthless in that it has no regard for public resources, plunderering left and right at the expense efficient service delivery to Malawians in terms of education, health, just to mention a few.
And what about Chasowa, Njauju, Luke, albinos?
This is all nonsense writing with a wish for Peter Mutharika to win or a preconceived fact of a higher probability chance of winning for Mutharika . This article is not based on facts on the ground but rather more on election history than performance. The fact that DPP won in 2009 and 2014 does not give an edge to Peter Mutharika. In fact, the 2014 victory is questionable as more revelations of rigging are coming to light.
While it is good to be an optimist , it is also good not to live in denial. The writer must be reminded that Peter Mutharika has been a complete downer for majority Malawians. His performance is only appreciated by those who always settle for less and cherish mediocrity. Mutharika has failed in all governance areas. It’s time for Malawians to move on with a new, ambitious, and progressive leader who will modernize the country. Mutharika has no taste in execution of infrastructure projects nor is he active in understanding the modern and transformative world.
To hell with your analysis Kath Mainga….who doesn’t know u are a DPP cadet? U will die with cardiac arrest like Daniel Phiri. Ur days in govt are numbered.
what a biased analysis…this is what is not on the ground.
what a biased analysis,this is not what is on the ground
This story is biased towards DPP.The writer has analysed the strenght and weaknes of opposition but he has failed to do the same to DPP.Does it mean DPP has no weakneses? This is not fair.
DPP MTOLANKHANI….ZAKO IZO IFE CHAKWERA BASI
Be neutral….. why is the article full of APM? Mwadya chibanzi chomaliza
Let us cross the bridge first and see in whose favour the 21 May elections shall be.
I think you are a blind analyst to talk five star hotels in Mangochi, Liwonde, Lilongwe and Blantyre because of APM. Continue sleeping until you wake up to new realities after 21 May. Umalemba izi chindasi ukutafunila ..mu brain mukuzungulira chamba mbuzi iwe
Chilima was in a corrupt DPP for four years indeed just like Magufuli was in that former corrupt tanzaniani government. Look at what magufuli is doing now. Some times you have lay low until you are strong enough to fight them. Also remember malemu Bingu. He knew Bakili was failing in many ways but he pretended to agree. Ndimmene amachitila anthu anzeru . Makape do not know that principle. CHILIMA moto kuti buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
The author is not just a Lilongwe-based social scientist, but he must be a Lilongwe DPP-staunch supporter…
Ukunama analyst wa DPP iwe…..ukhaula pa 21st May apa
Its sad for people to be recalling of MCP before 1994, where are the real big doodies of MCP now? Check the flow of the tide all murderers, all thieves, regionalistic & tribalistic characters, haters are all in DPP. We all know them. MCP had to shade them off to correct its past, in fact, the same have tainted DPP and we are worse off now than the 31 years of MCP.
Telling it as it is on the ground. The writer is a Malawian who knows what APM has done for the past five years he has been in power. The many development projects he has mentioned are there on the ground for everyone to see. APM will surely win the forthcoming election.
I am a thief. My leader is a thief. We are both very happy.
Awanso nde ati kodi awaaaaaaaaaaaaa! Iwowa akukhala kuti awaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa fotseki zakoooooooooooooo ndi u cadet wakokoooooooooooo!! Dzipakilani 4 your days are numbered!! Ngati mukulotabe mukulamulila nde mudziwa zooooona pa 21 May panooooooooooooooooooooo Hi5 woyeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, Chakwera woyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!
Za ziiiii utadyetsedwa mabanzi. Poor analysis. Plus the elections will be heavily contested among 3 parties, not 4….UDF is as yellow as used toilet paper. Leave it out, it isn’t strong.
To HELL with your tribalistic party.
This is biased reporting. The whole professional reporter…sad!
Biased reporting, my take!!!
Inu ndinu a social scientist a DPP… munya muona!
Ngati kuli munthu wabodza ndiye ndi iwe basi. Eee! Akutuma eti. Yor are a typical DDP staunch member able to lie likuswa mtengo. Tiye tidikire 21 May ngati zimene ukunena zidzakhala zoona. Thieves must go!!!!
where we like it or not gogo MUTHARIKA is packing ablack is taking the throne