Battle of Malawi fresh elections: Pointers on who will be duly elected president
There is nothing, so far, to stop Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) from conducting fresh presidential elections as ordered by the February 3 judgement of the Constitutional Court.
As we stand, COVID-19 or not, Malawians are going to the polls within the 150 days given by the court in February.
The question, then, is: Who, among the hopefuls, looks probable to make it to State House?
There are two dimensions to this question.
One, if each of the four main political parties—DPP, MCP, UDF and UTM—choose to stand on their own, the fresh elections result will likely tilt towards the governing DPP of incumbent President Peter Mutharika.
DPP has one strength: It has a loyal and an unshaken base in the populous Llomwe belt.
Further, judging from how the party has been in the past three general elections, it is clear that DPP is better represented in all other districts.
If Malawi Congress Party (MCP) presidential hopeful Lazraus Chakwera goes alone, he will lose again because of one reason: MCP solely relies on the central region vote which, over years, has suffered serious encroachment from other parties, especially UTM.
UTM and its leader the country’s estranged Vice-president Saulos Chilima, on its own, cannot make it. It doesn’t have a political base to point; it relies on swing voters and it would take a miracle to dismantle MCP or DPP from their strongholds.
There is no word of hope that can be expressed about UDF to win on its own though it still commands support in the eastern region. The yellow party os relegated to sympathy of other party’s considerations. So, on it’s own, UDF should brace for another rock bottom but they can be kingmakers or spoilers.
The second dimension is when these parties should to go the alliance route.
Currently, there are two probable alliances: the less loose DPP/UDF alliance and the more loose MCP/UTM with other partners.
What we know, as of now, is that MCP is in alliance with UTM; and DPP is in alliance with UDF.
What we don’t know is how these alliances will play out, fundamentally, in the critical area of who will be the President and who will be the Vice President.
With DPP/UDF alliance, we know President Peter Mutharika will lead—on the Vice, not yet known who he will pick as running mate.
With UTM/MCP alliance, all we know is that they are together but no word, until now, has been given regards who to lead it.
But assuming these alliances work, which one looks sexy to get to Sanjika?
The DPP/UDF alliance has a strength of controlling the best part of Southern Region, the countries’ most populous region – the winning battle ground.
They will just need few votes from Central and Northern regions to patch up the votes that can be taken away from them in their Southern Region base.
But DPP really need UDF to pull through. To mean, in an event where UDF dejects from the alliance, DPP’s strength will be heavily affected.
The MCP/UTM alliance, plus seven other parties, is quite a force to reckon with on paper. MCP has a blessing of a giant central region block which, arguably, represents about 80 percent of their trusted and intact votes.
Added to that, if we take it from the nullified 2019 elections, UTM did quite well in some central region districts but did extremely well in the north.
To mean, the combination of these two parties, add former president Joyce Banda’s PP in the fold, makes MCP/UTM alliance best contenders of State House.
But this alliance suffers from two major defects. One, no party between the two can make it on its own. Two, the alliance still doesn’t have a clear direction—no leader so far.
The question of who will lead this alliance is quite critical, in tones of make or break, as it will both: energize and frustrate some. How this leadership question is handled is where the future of this alliance rests.
Arguably, as it stands, if all the major four parties chooses to go alone into the fresh polls, I argue that DPP will carry the day.
However, if alliances comes to play, UTM/MCP alliance stands a better chance though, a slight leadership squabble in this camp can complicate their winning chance and sale it to DPP/UDF.
What’s your prediction?
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Chakwra will be eaten up alive by power hungry Chilima. Chakwra should remind himself that a days after Chilima was elected as VP to Mutharika Chilima started plotting the overthrow of Mutharika.
Wait and see Chakwera you will be meat for Chilima. Chilima breathes fire and you Chakwera will burn.
The mojor problem affecting DPP is having people like the author this article who never tell their president the truth that come rain come sunshine you won’t make it. Just tell Dpp the truth that it wont make it.
Do you think a Southerner can vote for MCP after kuchitidwa nkhanza taziwona posachedwapazi? MCP has not changed at all. It remains the most dangerous, cruel and intolerant party in this country. MCP still believes in the old fashioned regional or tribal politics.
People are interested in peace and unity and it is only DPP which can deliver these. That’s why DPP has massive and reasonable support from all regions.
Muwona naye nyekhwe Pitala
Are you talking about the same DPP which was first afraid of recount and then rerun and now 50 plus 1? The same president that is shitting in his pants when he saw the bills for election. Why is he afraid to sign them? Now he is sick knowing that whether he wants it or not the election is on coronavirus or not. I am from the South by the way.
Bills created under duress from the corrupt, inept, nepotistic Tumbuka court that made judgements on things that were not even in contention or in any part of the petitions? That court that started commanding another branch of government on what to do??? That stupid stupid judgement that decided an election which is a quantitative process can not be judged on quantitative measures but hearsay by opposition party zealots that were not even physically present on the ground. Gwalidi kept giving evidence on things that she heard rather than observed or could prove happened. That judgement cannot stand anywhere in the… Read more »
Who is a tribalist here? DPP mwalemba Alomhmwe angati ntchito zapambwamba last month yokha. Ku army , kupolice, ku Reserve Bank, Ku MRA Kuma embassy nduna zaboma and you come and tell us MCP was tribalist? DPP is the worst tribalistic regime ever to come to Malawi than no other. Evidence is everywhere for is to see.
UTM has lost all of its District Governors in central region and they have since defected to DPP. All MCP leaders in lower shire have defected to DPP too. That should tell you something about the strength of DPP as at now. Musovenge!!!!
You have no proof to that give us names please
Go chat with former UTM district governors in central. They will flash a DPP cloth in your face. They are all gone to the mighty DPP party where they belonged before.
The writer seems to be very blind. His idea is that DPP won the previous elections.
A lot of DPP supporters are from villages it’s not easy for MCP to convince them bcs of what DPP have done to them
You miss the point, Mcp killed our grandparents, raped our parents. Almost everyone in the southern part of Malawi knows this including some Tumbukas. Merely having a pastor lead Mcp cannot change that perception. Even now, nkhanza za Mcp is plain for everyone to see. We seen the terror in these past months. In 1994 people chanted bola wakulba yemweyo in favour of Bakili Muluzi over Mcp. We rather have our liberties than be led by someone who calls for blood. A fake pastor, who run away from the church and now celebrates at the spot a police officer was… Read more »
lero onse amachita nkhanza kalero ali ku dpp akupha ma alubino ndikuchitabe zina zoipa ku mtundu wa malawi. chipani sichiipa bwana. amaipa ndi anthu a mchipanicho.
If you believe that, you a lost man. 30 + years of Mcp terror and brutality we can never go back. Maybe Chilima maybe, but Mcp?? Never. A leopard never changes. Ng’ona mu Shire sizidafe.
Anthu ena mulibe manyazi onani zigawenga zonse zimapha anthu nthawi ya MCP panopa ali Ku DPP, nthawi ya UDF adaphanso anthu ambiri osaona adatha ntaunimu one ali Ku DPP lero mukuona kale nokha mayero Mani akutha kuphedwa ndi a DPP pofuna kulemba kapena kunena yambani mwaganiza kaye
DPP alliance with UDF they are going to make it bcs Chilima and Lazalas they don’t trust each other same to there supporters.
THERE IS NO CORONA VIRUS IN MALAWI.
Writer is very insincere especially when he chooses to ignore in totality the results of 2019. His/her op ed would have made sense if he had been dealing with 2019 figures. A very curtly terse assessment of 2019 figures will tell you a DPP/UDF alliance are on the backfoot. That alliance is off balance. DPP/UDF combined result of 2019 is 2,175,873. MCP/UTM combined result of 2019 is 2,800,109 votes a whooping difference of 624,236. He ignores that DPP.s result of 2019 is highly contested. Which in all practicality the figure of 2,175,873 is actually not what it is – INFLATED.… Read more »
@Andy Mwale if the figures are highly contested then why are you using the same figures to combine MCP/UTM votes.
Thus hypocrisy
I will rely on 2019 results because that is what your MEC gave us. The same reason l said what IF an impartial MEC takes over revises those figures since they have been proven to have been doctored. I dont know what hypocrisy you are talking about.
Supposed reliance on the contested votes is there because that is the official figures MEC gave us. What is it you are not getting here? Hence l said since the results were disputed and proved in court WHAT IF an impartial MEC came in and revised down the same since they are not a true reflection of DPPs popularity simavuto amenewo? My last bit tells you l dont rely on those results to hence there is no hypocrisy you referring to.
The writer is the stupid cadet of DPP, who does not read between lines may be is not in Malawi.