Battle of Malawi fresh elections: Pointers on who will be duly elected president
There is nothing, so far, to stop Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) from conducting fresh presidential elections as ordered by the February 3 judgement of the Constitutional Court.
As we stand, COVID-19 or not, Malawians are going to the polls within the 150 days given by the court in February.
The question, then, is: Who, among the hopefuls, looks probable to make it to State House?
There are two dimensions to this question.
One, if each of the four main political parties—DPP, MCP, UDF and UTM—choose to stand on their own, the fresh elections result will likely tilt towards the governing DPP of incumbent President Peter Mutharika.
DPP has one strength: It has a loyal and an unshaken base in the populous Llomwe belt.
Further, judging from how the party has been in the past three general elections, it is clear that DPP is better represented in all other districts.
If Malawi Congress Party (MCP) presidential hopeful Lazraus Chakwera goes alone, he will lose again because of one reason: MCP solely relies on the central region vote which, over years, has suffered serious encroachment from other parties, especially UTM.
UTM and its leader the country’s estranged Vice-president Saulos Chilima, on its own, cannot make it. It doesn’t have a political base to point; it relies on swing voters and it would take a miracle to dismantle MCP or DPP from their strongholds.
There is no word of hope that can be expressed about UDF to win on its own though it still commands support in the eastern region. The yellow party os relegated to sympathy of other party’s considerations. So, on it’s own, UDF should brace for another rock bottom but they can be kingmakers or spoilers.
The second dimension is when these parties should to go the alliance route.
Currently, there are two probable alliances: the less loose DPP/UDF alliance and the more loose MCP/UTM with other partners.
What we know, as of now, is that MCP is in alliance with UTM; and DPP is in alliance with UDF.
What we don’t know is how these alliances will play out, fundamentally, in the critical area of who will be the President and who will be the Vice President.
With DPP/UDF alliance, we know President Peter Mutharika will lead—on the Vice, not yet known who he will pick as running mate.
With UTM/MCP alliance, all we know is that they are together but no word, until now, has been given regards who to lead it.
But assuming these alliances work, which one looks sexy to get to Sanjika?
The DPP/UDF alliance has a strength of controlling the best part of Southern Region, the countries’ most populous region – the winning battle ground.
They will just need few votes from Central and Northern regions to patch up the votes that can be taken away from them in their Southern Region base.
But DPP really need UDF to pull through. To mean, in an event where UDF dejects from the alliance, DPP’s strength will be heavily affected.
The MCP/UTM alliance, plus seven other parties, is quite a force to reckon with on paper. MCP has a blessing of a giant central region block which, arguably, represents about 80 percent of their trusted and intact votes.
Added to that, if we take it from the nullified 2019 elections, UTM did quite well in some central region districts but did extremely well in the north.
To mean, the combination of these two parties, add former president Joyce Banda’s PP in the fold, makes MCP/UTM alliance best contenders of State House.
But this alliance suffers from two major defects. One, no party between the two can make it on its own. Two, the alliance still doesn’t have a clear direction—no leader so far.
The question of who will lead this alliance is quite critical, in tones of make or break, as it will both: energize and frustrate some. How this leadership question is handled is where the future of this alliance rests.
Arguably, as it stands, if all the major four parties chooses to go alone into the fresh polls, I argue that DPP will carry the day.
However, if alliances comes to play, UTM/MCP alliance stands a better chance though, a slight leadership squabble in this camp can complicate their winning chance and sale it to DPP/UDF.
What’s your prediction?
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Chakwra will be eaten up alive by power hungry Chilima. Chakwra should remind himself that a days after Chilima was elected as VP to Mutharika Chilima started plotting the overthrow of Mutharika.
Wait and see Chakwera you will be meat for Chilima. Chilima breathes fire and you Chakwera will burn.
The mojor problem affecting DPP is having people like the author this article who never tell their president the truth that come rain come sunshine you won’t make it. Just tell Dpp the truth that it wont make it.
Do you think a Southerner can vote for MCP after kuchitidwa nkhanza taziwona posachedwapazi? MCP has not changed at all. It remains the most dangerous, cruel and intolerant party in this country. MCP still believes in the old fashioned regional or tribal politics.
People are interested in peace and unity and it is only DPP which can deliver these. That’s why DPP has massive and reasonable support from all regions.
Muwona naye nyekhwe Pitala
Are you talking about the same DPP which was first afraid of recount and then rerun and now 50 plus 1? The same president that is shitting in his pants when he saw the bills for election. Why is he afraid to sign them? Now he is sick knowing that whether he wants it or not the election is on coronavirus or not. I am from the South by the way.
Bills created under duress from the corrupt, inept, nepotistic Tumbuka court that made judgements on things that were not even in contention or in any part of the petitions? That court that started commanding another branch of government on what to do??? That stupid stupid judgement that decided an election which is a quantitative process can not be judged on quantitative measures but hearsay by opposition party zealots that were not even physically present on the ground. Gwalidi kept giving evidence on things that she heard rather than observed or could prove happened. That judgement cannot stand anywhere in the world. Madise and Kasambara wrote that judgement with Mcp lawyers. That stupid court rubber stamped it.
If that court knew the case would not be judged on quantitative why did they let the MEC and Apm lawyers delve into numbers for weeks on end during the court process. They could have declared that standard prior to the case having started since they were convined as a special court. However these basterds slipped this information to Utm and Mcp lawyers and wasted everyone’s time.
Who is a tribalist here? DPP mwalemba Alomhmwe angati ntchito zapambwamba last month yokha. Ku army , kupolice, ku Reserve Bank, Ku MRA Kuma embassy nduna zaboma and you come and tell us MCP was tribalist? DPP is the worst tribalistic regime ever to come to Malawi than no other. Evidence is everywhere for is to see.
UTM has lost all of its District Governors in central region and they have since defected to DPP. All MCP leaders in lower shire have defected to DPP too. That should tell you something about the strength of DPP as at now. Musovenge!!!!
You have no proof to that give us names please
Go chat with former UTM district governors in central. They will flash a DPP cloth in your face. They are all gone to the mighty DPP party where they belonged before.
The writer seems to be very blind. His idea is that DPP won the previous elections.
A lot of DPP supporters are from villages it’s not easy for MCP to convince them bcs of what DPP have done to them
You miss the point, Mcp killed our grandparents, raped our parents. Almost everyone in the southern part of Malawi knows this including some Tumbukas. Merely having a pastor lead Mcp cannot change that perception. Even now, nkhanza za Mcp is plain for everyone to see. We seen the terror in these past months. In 1994 people chanted bola wakulba yemweyo in favour of Bakili Muluzi over Mcp. We rather have our liberties than be led by someone who calls for blood. A fake pastor, who run away from the church and now celebrates at the spot a police officer was murdered, a fake pastor who would rather see people die than call Corona what it is. A fake pastor who pulls every dirty trick in the book just to become president. He is a little Kamuzu( the nkhanza version). No agenda, no policies that stand out. The only thing that stands out is that Chakwera was ready kukhetsa mwazi, he was ready to start Civil war in this country. That in itself is dangerous enough to lose the southern vote.
lero onse amachita nkhanza kalero ali ku dpp akupha ma alubino ndikuchitabe zina zoipa ku mtundu wa malawi. chipani sichiipa bwana. amaipa ndi anthu a mchipanicho.
If you believe that, you a lost man. 30 + years of Mcp terror and brutality we can never go back. Maybe Chilima maybe, but Mcp?? Never. A leopard never changes. Ng’ona mu Shire sizidafe.
Anthu ena mulibe manyazi onani zigawenga zonse zimapha anthu nthawi ya MCP panopa ali Ku DPP, nthawi ya UDF adaphanso anthu ambiri osaona adatha ntaunimu one ali Ku DPP lero mukuona kale nokha mayero Mani akutha kuphedwa ndi a DPP pofuna kulemba kapena kunena yambani mwaganiza kaye
DPP alliance with UDF they are going to make it bcs Chilima and Lazalas they don’t trust each other same to there supporters.
THERE IS NO CORONA VIRUS IN MALAWI.
Writer is very insincere especially when he chooses to ignore in totality the results of 2019. His/her op ed would have made sense if he had been dealing with 2019 figures. A very curtly terse assessment of 2019 figures will tell you a DPP/UDF alliance are on the backfoot. That alliance is off balance. DPP/UDF combined result of 2019 is 2,175,873. MCP/UTM combined result of 2019 is 2,800,109 votes a whooping difference of 624,236. He ignores that DPP.s result of 2019 is highly contested. Which in all practicality the figure of 2,175,873 is actually not what it is – INFLATED. So writer should tell us how DPP intends to manufacture 624,236 in the election rerun. What if an impartial MEC takes over and revises down the 2,175,873 DPP/UDF votes. Amenewo amila ali m’madzi. Figures don’t lie. Also don’t forget perceptions have changed big time about DPP especially after them and MEC have this far lost 7 critical cases in our courts. Figures can’t remain the same. As long as writer ignores zonsenzi it will not add up.
@Andy Mwale if the figures are highly contested then why are you using the same figures to combine MCP/UTM votes.
Thus hypocrisy
I will rely on 2019 results because that is what your MEC gave us. The same reason l said what IF an impartial MEC takes over revises those figures since they have been proven to have been doctored. I dont know what hypocrisy you are talking about.
Supposed reliance on the contested votes is there because that is the official figures MEC gave us. What is it you are not getting here? Hence l said since the results were disputed and proved in court WHAT IF an impartial MEC came in and revised down the same since they are not a true reflection of DPPs popularity simavuto amenewo? My last bit tells you l dont rely on those results to hence there is no hypocrisy you referring to.
The writer is the stupid cadet of DPP, who does not read between lines may be is not in Malawi.
I imagine polling is as Good as it seemed Hillary Clinton would win in 2016 elections. Every pollsters said she would win. Except 3 or 6, that had Trump in slight lead. Point is vote ndimumtima. Dispite expression of anger by many of Dpp’s misdeeds, Utm or Mcp potential, a few crucial factors that everyone will have to reflect on before voting exist. For example, the development on the ground that Dpp has done, it looks like nothing but it matters. Who can best change peoples Individual lives for the better Or slightly in our case? Which party is safe, Mcp has done little or nothing to change the average citizens fear of their brutality and nkhanza mentality at the core of the party. That ruthlessness weighs heavy on Malawians hearts. People go to demonstrations for different reasons(among them protest are rather an entertaining affair)and most of those People are in urban Areas. 85% of the people are in rural areas, what Muntharika has done there will matter.
Chilima has the potential, but seriously lacks structures on his own to make it.
Bauleni stop patronising us with those lies. First understand the US electoral system then you can say Clinton did not win. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 had even more votes than Obama but because of the electoral college system which demands she meets a certain threshold in each state she lost the election because her votes were restricted to fewer states than is required by their electoral system. But in terms of a popular vote Clinton had more votes than Trump. Here we are comparing two alliances. One alliance with 2.1ml votes and another with 2.8ml votes. I would entertain anybody who wants to tell me how those with 2.1ml votes will upstage those with 2.8ml votes. So far nobody has done that.
UTM MCP THEY will make it it doesn’t matter if it Chilima or Chakwera. Their Alliances is powerful than these others so called alliance
The DPP-UDF alliance is as good as DPP going to the elections on its own. To be honest, DPP and UDF are bound to lose. They can fight it, but their time is up
Ndiponso if there was any law mu ma book aku Malawi lochotsa president term yake ikatha. I would wish if the supreme court of appeal in the last year’s presidential election if it doesn’t go well with those who have appealed against 3february judgement akanangowapanga vacate awa term yawo inatha. Kuti pakhale ena oyendesa mpaka tivote chilungamo . Zambiri zikupitila kuoningeka adawalekelela pampando Ali Ni matama. Mulungu alione dziko la Malawi ikuyaka Moto.
If last year’s tippex election favoured DPP with only 159thousand people according to Jane Ansah , what picture is giving you there 😊😊. I think this is just a joke that MCP or UTM can’t win the election on its own MCP and UTM are everywhere just like DPP . Tivote chilungamo if possible aliyense ayende yekha and see mamuna weniweni wamfundo zachikoka ndi ndani. UDF ikadalowanso yokha osati zokankhana😂😂😂 I will give my vote to the right candidate and right party to lead the nation of Malawi. Am sick 😷😷😫😨 and tired of nepotism jobless no equality of opportunities in school business farming eish kwacha ikungokomera akumipando atazikhalila pa nyofunyofu. Every party has people according ndi mfundozawo zazigawo zitayeni. Kumwera I can see UTM Moto Kuti buuuu MCP ilinso konko DPP UDF inde ndi kwao nzogawana makonsamakonda.
Good one champion. The writter here he is regionalism himself those are old politics now the new generation want ideas
DPP HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO LOSE IN IT’S OWN STRONG BASE, THE LOMWE BELT (OR IS IT THE NGULU CAMP?). EVEN UDF IS BETTER OFF THAN DPP AS I WRITE!
No elections until Covid19 is over. Government understands but opposition is sick they don’t get it at all. Even in USA the opposition are worried trump will delay the polls due to risk of the deadly disease.
If it stood alone, DPP can win only through rigging. Is the author assuming the election would be managed by the current MEC set up,? Reconstitute MEC and DPP would be sent into oblivion.
lets wait and see
Munthu never learns from past experience…pamene tikudutsa mu nyengo iliyonse tizindikire kut ndi phunziro lomwe zotsatira zake tizazigwiritse ntchito mtsogolo..zomwe malawi akudutsamo lero, zinachitikanso mmalawi muno zaka za mbuyomu ,koma omwe tinaziona tikukumbukira bwino zonwe tinaziphunzira,kuti tizigwirotse ntchito lero? Munthu sachedwadi kuiwala ndithu..
Learn from the past and present situation and what the future will bring. That’s why we need changes 😉
Good question Tadzi if DPP can carry the day why did they employ Tipp-ex ? Why they employed the assistance of Jane Ansah? DOP can not carry the day.
Not true, we have never had a genuine election! The south thing is all but a lie. Let us vote genuinely this time around.
Mcp will lead going back to opposition. UTM will be completely booted out from the game
mutu wako
Keep on sleeping, you will be surprised. What made you magogo kubera last year’s election, wasn’t it that someone was leading. How can you say that such party has no capacity to win on its own. Does your magogo has any sane person to vote for him
One candidate will die soon. Simplifying the whole process.
MCP and UTM is going to win because they have heavy weights from Llomwe belt itself. Eastern region and Nsanje. It is more of a national party. This is the reason APM hates 50 plus 1 rule. He knows he can’t make it. Remember also that there is a strong camp in DPP that is strongly against UDF, which I have no doubt will secretly be campaigning for UTM. Another camp in DPP is against Chimulilenji. Muluzi is not a coward. Once Atupele is Vice President DPP is gone for ever, APM won’t last. In Atupele we have our boy inside the enemy camp, giving us the Intel we need. In any case, DPP has been cornered.
Anthu aku south rural sangavotere MCP. They can vote for UTM though. It will be interesting
Tribalist cadet as usual 😬
Vote ili mmidzi. Whilst we think ” technically” munthu wakumudzi votes simplitically and in Malawi It’s along tribal lines. Very difficult for the centre to vote for other parties other than the MCP. In the south it’s a mixture of UDF and DPP . The South Centre and north were open to UTM but the dynamics might be different with the coming of MCP. Nobody knows
Lord have mercy on this country. You people are going through troubled times because of nepotism, favoritism, deceit, gross unfaithfulness. For how long shall your children cry Lord. Come down and rescue this country.