Chilima says Covid exposed Malawi’s huge deficit in epidemiological modelling: Kuunika faulted
Vice-President Saulos Chilima has said the Covid-19 has exposed Malawi’s huge deficit in epidemiological modelling as the Ministry of Health’s Kuunika modeling projected the potential impact of the virus pandemic in the country given several control measures, including a nationwide lockdown human rights defenders opposed.
Speaking at the official opening of the 2020 Economics Association of Malawi (Ecama) conference in Mangochi, Chilima said when the pandemic was first registered in Malawi, government, using the Kuunika epidemiological model, predicted a more devastating epidemic that would overwhelm the nation’s health system.
Between April 2 and June 10, the modellers projected over 30 000 deaths and over 100 000 hospitalised cases if there were no control measure. They also forecast about 2 000 deaths and 5 000 hospitalised cases under countrywide lockdown.
The model suggested that without interventions, over 85 percent of Malawians could become infected over a one year period.
Of those infected, about 483 000 would require hospitalization, 85,000 would need critical care and that up to 50 000 Covid-19 deaths
In contrast, Chilima says a model by World Health Organisation projected less virulent pandemic with much lower transmissibility.
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Models are a useful tool for analyzing problems. The specific outputs are simulations, and should be validated over time, and parameters/relationships improved given the performance of the model. In this case, some assumptions did not pan out, and this provides opportunities for improving the model. IN all fairness, many models projected terrible outcomes for all countries and those in Africa. The virus however, behaved in ways unknown, and some dire projections now appear to have been overestimates. This is a good thing, it would have been a tragedy if the models were wrong the other way, and provided basis for… Read more »
First look at Kuunika project. Made up of macadet, some of which Martha Kwataine spoke about in her leaked audio. These guys’ sole interest has been to get money for projects and share among themselves. This includes the donor, who probably doesn’t know, the consulting organization that has moved permanently to Malawi due to this easy money. They throw a few bones to some Malawians that put money ahead of their country. Now getting to the technicalities of the model, the model was built using data from Europe without modification of any underlying conditions in a setting like Malawi. This… Read more »
The challenge of putting emphasis on archaic methods of mathematical modelling to predict real life scenarios.The folly of using un updated theories to inform critical public health interventions.Komanso kudzifila kuti iwowo ndiamene amadziwa heavy. Chonsecho mumakakamiza ana a xool kuti adziphunzira zolakikazo.Useless education systems
Then after WHO model, so what? He should have suggested what needs to happen to make sure that models such as Kuunika are really home grown and people are indeed epidemiologists
Shame on Ministry of Health officials who produced that prediction model. They exposed their serious level of ignorance and irresponsibility that cannot be accepted by any country any where. They cheated the country. They plunged the nation into a crisis that wasn’t there. They threw the country into the domain of fear and trepidation. The whole team must go back to school. Let government recruit experts fro IDC. Shame on you!!
Making a constructive suggestion and offering solutions ? Then that won’t be Chilima anymore. He is not capable of that. Finding faults in hindsights and kunena milambi cos he has to be vague as he has no clue what it is that he is trying to transform in this country… Now that’s Chilima