Chilima says Covid exposed Malawi’s huge deficit in epidemiological modelling: Kuunika faulted

Vice-President Saulos Chilima has said the Covid-19 has exposed Malawi’s huge deficit in epidemiological modelling as the Ministry of Health’s  Kuunika modeling projected the potential impact of the virus pandemic in the country given several control measures, including a nationwide lockdown human rights defenders opposed.

Speaking at the official opening of the 2020 Economics Association of Malawi (Ecama) conference in Mangochi, Chilima said  when the pandemic was first registered in Malawi, government, using the Kuunika epidemiological model, predicted a more devastating epidemic that would overwhelm the nation’s health system.

Between April 2  and June 10, the modellers projected over 30 000 deaths and over 100 000 hospitalised cases if there were no control measure. They also forecast about 2 000 deaths and 5 000 hospitalised cases under countrywide lockdown.

The model suggested that without interventions, over 85 percent of Malawians could become infected over a one year period.

Of those infected, about 483 000 would require hospitalization, 85,000 would need critical care and that up to 50 000 Covid-19 deaths

In contrast, Chilima says a model by World Health Organisation projected less virulent pandemic with much lower transmissibility.