Chunga hits at pollster critic: ‘Presidential run-off may be too much to bear for Malawi’
In recent years, opinion polls have developed a reputation for failing to capture the views of the electorate but a research fellow at Centre for Social Research under the University of Malawi, Joseph Chunga has defended Institute of Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) which has bene criticised by Professor Jimmy Namangale, a statistician at Chancellor College.
Chunga said Namangale’s critique raised no serious arguments against the methodology that was employed by the IPOR survey which predicted an outright victory for Tonse Alliance candidate Lazarus Chakwera and his running mate Saulos Chilima..
“His assertions are around interpretation of the findings largely based on the political environment during the time of the survey and theories of electorate behavior. A closer look will in fact show that his theoretical assumptions, analysis and conclusions are misleading to say the least,” he said.
It has been argued that voting behavior theories would entail those who voted for DPP in previous elections are more likely to vote for DPP-UDF alliance and MCP supporters are likely to vote for MCP-UTM alliance.
But Chuga said any scholar of political behavior will caution against “this amateurish 1+1=2 kind of analysis” of electoral alliances.
“It simply doesn’t work that way. That’s why we have a concept of defection rate. The gist of it is that electoral alliances come with gains and losses. The question is what’s the net effect. The IPOR survey presented results of defection rates which are very clear,” he said.
“There are glaring errors that some may be tempted to believe they were deliberate in order to advance a particular point. But I wish to believe that the author made innocent errors here. Unfortunately, those errors resulted in the fatal false conclusion.
“It is important to get the figures right especially when he ends up predicting a difference of 72,000 votes between the contesting candidates .”
Namangale claims Central region has 2,247,157 registered voters while Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) voters roll has 2,920,423. He claims Northern region has 931,229; MEC says 929,974. Namangale claims Southern region has 3,009,259, MEC has 3,009,173.
“In short, his calculations are based on figures that exclude 671,925 voters. Such calculations are simply wrong,” noted Chunga.
Namangale argues that respondents to the IPOR survey were influenced by the political environment at the time of the survey characterized by MCP-UTM ‘demonizing the DPP’ government as a product of fraud elections and reports of abuse of COVID-19 funds.
Commentators say challenging the culture of ‘You can’t say that!’ is the precondition for diminishing the pressure to conform and self-censor.
In his reaction, Chunga said: “ It is undisputable that the survey responses are informed by what is happening in the country. In fact, the very essence of studies on political behavior is to establish how the various developments in the country influence their political views and action. In this case, the fact that perceptions of fraud elections or corruption (even if based on propaganda) can influence people’s voting intentions is no basis for questioning respondent’s honesty. What is important is that they will vote for candidate regardless of the basis.”
Chunga said evidence from Malawi surveys shows no significant relationship between one’s views of voting intentions and who they think is conducting the survey.
“Malawians are generally free to air their views. By the way, why would supporters of a ruling party and its partner be afraid of sharing their views?”
Use of 2019 nullified results
Chunga said any discussion based on 2019 votes is as void as the election that was declared void by the courts.
It is argued that the court’s decision didn’t question the figures.
“This question doesn’t arise at all – there was no presidential election in 2019. The figures in question were not a product or what you could call an electoral process. Trying to redeem those figures (be it by MCP, UTM, or DPP) is a futile exercise. Going ahead to use the same for extrapolation of future results is even more,” Chunga said.
He said if Namangale indeed believes that 2019 presidential elections figures stand valid and at the same time believes the electoral alliance Maths go by simple addition of alliance partners’ support, the conclusion cant be that DPP-UDF alliance have an upper hand.
The logical conclusion going by these arguments would be that MCP-UTM alliance will go away with 55% (35 for MCP + 20% for UTM) against 43% of DPP-UDF ( 38% for DPP + 4% for UDF).
Namangale also questions how the survey found that DPP support may have declined.
“Interestingly, he doesn’t explain why he believes MCP-UTM support should be lower after pointing out that these were energized by court verdict. He concludes with estimating that the gap between two alliances would be in the region of 72,000, again based on 2019 presidential election figures. He doesn’t explain why the gap has to shrink from 624,236 ( i.e. 2,800,109 combined 2019 MCP-UTM votes less 2,175,873 combined DPP-UDF votes) to the 72,000,” Chunga said.
Since Namangale critiqued the IPOR survey, many have labelled him a DPP operative .
But observers say it is illogical of Tonse alliance supporters, anyone who does not support their candidate has been bought.
“ You are devoid of any critical thinking in your urbanite elite bubble supporting candidates with urban centric policies. Yet you will be the one cursing the rural when their votes decides the winner. Your ignorance is showing everytime you acquiesce every opinion coming from your camp,” said on posting on Nyasa Times comments section.
A media analyst Jimmy Kainja writes thay while the vote and results will be hotly contested, whoever emerges victorious after 23 June will need to hit the ground running to fix the tanking economy and handle the COVID-19 pandemic.
Malawi has effectively been in campaign mode since mid-2018, with much effort and energy directed into elections rather than governance. Malawi has a second chance in this election, but a third may be too much to bear.
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DPP will win with landslide victory whether you want it or not there is no way we voters can waist our time voting for MCP.We turn to wonder why are you talking too much just wait for the day you will live to regret.
Amalawi atopa ndiumphawi, kusowa ndalama chifukwa cha Peter Munthalika alibe nzeru, ndiye mavoters a DPP azikavotera Munthalika Kut atani?chifukwa pano zamukanika, koma Kuba makobi aboma.Malawians akufuna tsogolo lot azitha Kupeza ntchito, ndalama,ndikumatukula Mabanja awo.Munthalika walephera ena ayeseko.
Search me, this is going to be first survey to be goofed by the IPOR ever since it started its work. With scholars what Namangale has done is not wrong and that`s another scholar has come with his critique.
UTM supporters are more likely to be unhappy with MCP leadership, while UDF supporters are more likely to be happy with DPP leadership. Many UTM supporters would have wished Chilima led the alliance. In addition, the contradictory remarks by Chakwera and Chilima about positions in the cabinet have caused a lot of confusion amongst followers.
Ma researcher athuwa
aliyense akugwela mbali yomwe ali
Angosanduka ngati George Phiri
waku Livingstonia Univesity
The problem is that Ipor did this survey with expectations in mind. That is very wrong. That is why they can not see any sense that Professor Namangale is saying as they would want to back themselves. To be honest, me as a statistician and trained by many worldwide organisation on conduct of survey, the Ipor lacked objectivity and the sampling was totally wrong. In fact for them, they needed to weight the results based on geographical populations of the regions.
Ngati mukutsutsana nokhanokha, ana asukulu mukuwaphunziysa chani?
Senseless
Jimmy Namangale is living in a fools paradise and those who know the guy know that he is just intelligent but not wise and he is not even ambitious. How can he say that the central region has 2,247,000 registered voters when in actual sense it has 2,919,000 and the southern region 3,009,0000 and the north has 918,000. The difference between the central region and the south is only 90,000. This means that the central region and southern region can cancel each other out and just to help Jimmy Namangale, suppose the south edges out the central region with 200,000 votes and that 95% of the northern region votes go to the Tonse Alliance, what are the chances for dpp? Jimmy Namangale just retire from your job and follow the likes of Emmanuel Fabiano, Professor Zimani Kadzamira and Dr. Chokotho. Leave the kids who are energetic do the lecturing there.
Namangale’s party loyalty should be critiqued. Otherwise he is free to write what he wants. Makes interesting reading after all.
The judgement did not find evidence of rigging that’s why the 2019 figures still stands. That’s why Chilima failed to even contest on his own because he knows that with his 1,000,000 votes he won’t even make it to the second round. This election is just giving the opposition a second chance based on irregularities and the 50+1% which according to me is changing the rules of the game during the second leg, trying to enter the govt through the back door because no-one went to court to argue on the rules of selecting the winner. Secondly, Namangale used the population figures and the total number of voters to extra-polate your survey results hence skewing the results away from what you found. His assumptions on the behavior of survey respondents is also accurate based on your same results. This is how a typical Malawian behaves under the current circumstances. Chilima’s voters are more likely to be shared because a majority of them come from DPP when he formed his UTM. And the chances of them voting for MCP vs DPP are very slim.
Cusper Sometimes when you have eaten so much from your political masters, you throw into the drain all your profession principles. Here is a Statistics polofesa being schooled by a political scientist who is using basic statistics. Ucadet ndi fire umayiwala nazo sukulu. In statics you can’t conclude as polofesa Namangale has done. I think Chunga could be a better statistics professor than a Polofesa Namangale. kikikik
Prof. Namangale does not do politics. Maybe you do not know him. His objectivity and professional conduct towers above the entire Chirunga academia. It’s just that his level of sophistication is above the ordinary. That’s why it will be difficult for you to understand his analysis. Let those who have the academic stamina argue otherwise. But as it stands everything is politics to you the ordinary wananches. That’s why this country is going nowhere.
Ma pulofesa aku Malawi ndiomvesa chisoni now I know why mwana wanga akukana kuzakhala professiosor to her she thinks a professor is a confused person
Are you implying that UDF supporters who came from MCP will not vote for UDF but will also vote for MCP just because they orinated from MCP? Koma mitu yanuyi ikugwira kapena ndi ndi election fever?
There is some sense here…Namangale nayo nimuchekulu chomeni. Wakulimgana waka na mlomwe mnyakhe mdala uyu.
Inunso a Chunga mwatumidwa. Tiona next week tikavota tione who is telling the truth. You mean chakwera angapose APM with that margin?. Mwauponda bola mukanati Chakwera 51 and APM 48
23 june ndi pompano we dont need your stupid and failed statistical assumptions. I kno who i will vote for. You know who you will vote for. Tuesday or by wednesday night we will all know who is the president.
Khalani chete inu . Tikavota mudzachita manyazi nokha. Kungomva kuti ADADI atuluka player wanu wabisala Kuuna.
Ndipo. Chakwera has neither the intelligence nor the strategic prowess to outclass his opponent. At this time, when he is supposed to hammer the nail home he is busy talking to foreign media outlets. Are they the ones who will vote in this election? We will not even have foreign observers in this election. Yet here is someone busy! This time around we are slugging it out on our own. Wangomusiyira Chilima yekha. Look at how energetic ADadi is driving the message home. When it matters most. A Chakwera ndi gulu lija lima chinyitsa zigoli mpira otha itha. Kkkkk!!!!!
Good and critical thinking. Do not be too diplomatic. The results were bogus and fictitiously presented. Mr. Chimsinga and the team rushed the data cleaning and analysis stages. The interpretation was biased and wanted to buy-in Chilima’s thinking.
Pali anthu ambiri omwe anavotera Chilima mu 2019 panopa sangavotere MCP oro atawathira Doom mkamwa. Palinso pena ambiri a Mia ku Lower-Shire omwe anakhumudwa posamuika mbuya ngati runningmate. Enanso ku Ntcheu anali a Chimulirenji nawonso anapatuka.
Mukatengera chigulu cha mmisokhano
ndiye a mbiri ndi tiana toti sitikavota.
Let the academics do a good job osati kutenga mbali.
Zoona zioneka pa 23 May panopa ngati materials afeke mawauno. Kkkkkkkk
Palinso anthu ambiri amene tinavotera pitala amene tinasintha maganizo kamba chozindikira kuti munthuyu wakalamba sangamaganizire zatsogolo lathu la ife achinyamata. Komanso kamba ka khalidwe losasamala za malamulo. Ndipo mudziwe zimenezi. Chinanso chimene mudziew ndi chakuti kutengera zisankho zonse zomwe MCP, DPP ndi UDF zapanga mbuyomu kuyambira 2009 DPP nd UDF yakhala yikutsika pangono pangono pamene MCP yakhala ikukwera pangono pangono.
2009 2014 2019
DPP 2,963,820 1,904,399 1, 940, 709
MCP 1,365,672 1,455,880 1, 781, 740
UDF N/A 717, 224 235, 164
UTM N/A N/A 1,018,369
aWA NDI MASAMU A KU SECONDALE ZOSAFUNANSO POLOFESALA. kikikiki
PP was a splitter in 2014. UTM continued with the split. In all, those who moved can not be depended upon. There are those who will stick to their parties by virtue of tribal and regionalistic affiliations in all seasons.
Musatinyase inu a IPOR. You have been exposed as incompetent researchers and academics.
Chunga, shut your dirty MCP mouth. Namangale pointed out faults in your opinion poll. Why did the percentages add up to 101%. Why did you ask people about their ‘voting intentions’ and then mixed that with ‘their view of who is going to win. Don’t you see that your methodology has a serious problem.
What is this garbage saying I’m summsry