Dzuka Malawi: After Feb 3, UTM could disband, MCP disintegrate

Look here, look very hard. We have been massaging ourselves, pumping up our political godfathers and still expect the judiciary to save our self-created problems. Here we are, eight months after elections winners are adamant victory belongs to them, losers, mainly MCP and UTM are crying they were short changed.

May be MCP has a valid case. UTM cries are very hilarious to say the least. The unapologetic apologists of the UTM believe the “moto bu” movement which only managed to convince people in one constituency in the north, one in the east, one in the south. I seriously have forgotten where else, but they were four, won the presidency. Hell no.

The problem with UTM, just like its father the DPP is arrogance. They know better, speak better and even rudely speak to diplomats telling the EU off, threatening to invade Blantyre and refusing to say what they will do if they lost. UTM lost the election period. Its apologists can cry all they can, the lost badly in councillors, parliamentarians and were a distance third in presidential elections.

These are hard facts, wake up UTM followers, if you want to do better in the next election accept this fact. After all they say, its not how hard you fall, but how you rise. Unfortunately, UTM still sounds arrogant, I heard SKCs presser. He has not learnt a damn lesson pointing fingers at DPP and MCP.

No bwana former veep, UTM is an illusion. It has no political base, stop saying the whole country is your base. In real politics you develop a political base. Donald Trump has one, ANC’s Zuma had one, Edgar Lungu in Zambia has one even Bo Johnson has one. In our tribal politics surely, you need one. Unfortunately, angoni aku Ntcheu opted for Chimulilenji and others for Chakwera, time to ask yourself hard questions. Because if the court rules in favour of Mutharika, your career and that of UTM is closed.

If the court upheld your petition, then you still are back to square one. Who will vote for you, who did not vote for your in-May 21 elections? You see that’s where the question of political base arises. I am available for hire, but a fresh election the only real serious contender will be DPP’s Mutharika and MCP’s Chakwera. This is hard wake up truth. If Chakwera wins, you have 10 years wait.

UTM should forget alliance with MCP. Alhaji Sidik Mia will remain runningmate in the event of a fresh election which brings us to Malawi Congress. If the case nullifies the election, MCP has an uphill task to convince the South and the East they care for all Malawians. So far Chakwera has been muted on Nsundwe thugs.

Unfortunately, Nsundwe youth being abused by MCP and HDRC (Yes HDRC, I heard Timothy Mtambo tell us at Kamuzu Central Round about to wait for the lorries from Nsundwe which were on their way). It means Mtambo pays for those lorries and trucks that ship the unemployed thugs from Nsundwe.

Nsundwe has reigned terror on innocent people passing there, looted and stolen things in town like 18, smashed cars. Chakwera was a fresh breather and his biggest selling point was MCP was reformed and nothing like the state killing machines of Doctor Banda or his stooge JZU whom we heaped blame. Well, political expediency has seen the Reverend look away from the gangs of Nsundwe murdering a Police officer on duty, stone vehicles and he is yet to go and address a rally to tell his youth- they used to come in MCP party attire- to stop terrorising innocent motorists and people.

I was going to say MCP could win a fresh election, but the Nsundwe scar would see the party loose in urban areas where they need votes to counter Mutharikas vote in Blantyre and Zomba. If the judgement is in favour of MCP petition, Chakwera will have a lifeline in politics, but cant convince the South and East that MCP is a changed party. His opponents will hit him hard. I will be happy to attend his rallies in Mangochi where the murdered policeman came from.

So Monday is a d-day for everyone. More especially Chilima and Chakwera, reality of politics will catch up with them, after listening and dancing to HDRC tune, they will need to speak to everyone and convince everyone to vote for them. However as indicated, any court outcome is a start of real political drama.

The DPP has displayed the same arrogance as before, it will be difficult for the party to campaign in the centre if the elections are not upheld. The President will have to fire his cabinet and entire DPP election machinery. They cheated him. All those fighting to succeed Mutharika will have to be fired first for confusing the party. It could be another big cabinet crisis after Kamuzu’s and Muluzis third term.

The DPP would still have its base and win a fresh election, but he needs to win in other regions to look legitimate nationally elected leader not President of the Southern region.

So dzuka Malawi. The reality on Monday is this. The Court upheld results- DPP and Mutharika continue ruling, the MCP will break with Harry Mkandawire, Zikhale Ngoma, Gotani Hara, Sidik Mia, Halima Daudi and everyone of political nomads dumping the party. People like Njobvuyalema will be remembered. Reverend Chakwera will have to stand down to allow a new leader prepare for 2024 in good time.

UTM, all the DPP officials will return home. UTM which attracted more atidyenawo like Peoples Party will disintegrate. By 2024, it will be a shadow of itself.

If the court orders fresh election, we need time to have a new electoral calendar, register all those that have attained age of 18, probably ask parliament change law on elections, appointment of new electoral commission (Ansah promised to resign), print ballot papers, get a new ICT system to avoid manipulation, have a voter education, voter roll verification, print ballots outside Malawi (since we don’t trust any of our printers) and of course add an appeal process. Give each three months or two months minus registration, the elections could be held somewhere around August 2021 and May 2022. Any quick rush would be another disaster.

And of course, Judges will never be trusted again to run our elections. The court would deliver an indictment on our Judges. As I said at the start, we need serious conversation which will start on February 3, 2020. Before you scream anything on this one, read again, write what is not factual. Dzuka Malawi- facts are stubborn.

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