If successfully developed, Malawi’s Mining Exports Set to Skyrocket to $30-$40bn by 2040, World Bank Predicts
Malawi’s mining sector stands at the edge of a transformative era, with the potential to drive export diversification, boost fiscal revenue, and attract major foreign investment with the 2025 World Bank Malawi Economic Monitor Report suggest mining exports could hit $30 billion by 2040 or even $43 billion in a best-case scenario, positioning Malawi as a key player in the global energy transition.
The report, released on Thursday in Lilongwe, highlights eight high-potential mining projects in the pipeline, including the Kayelekera Uranium Mine, the Kasiya Rutile Project, and the Songwe Hills Rare Earth Elements Project. These projects, if successfully developed, could unlock billions of dollars in export earnings and provide a much-needed boost to Malawi’s economy, which has long relied on agriculture as its primary economic driver.
A Catalyst for Economic Diversification
The global shift toward renewable energy and electrification has created unprecedented demand for critical minerals such as graphite, rare earth elements, and titanium—resources that Malawi possesses in abundance. The World Bank notes that these minerals are essential for manufacturing solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and other green technologies.
“Malawi is uniquely positioned to benefit from the global energy transition,” said a World Bank spokesperson. “By developing its mining sector, the country can diversify its exports, reduce its reliance on traditional commodities, and attract foreign investment that will create jobs and stimulate economic growth.”
The report projects that the mining sector could contribute up to 10% of Malawi’s GDP by 2063, a significant increase from its current contribution of less than 1%. This growth is expected to be driven by the operationalization of large-scale mining projects, which have the potential to generate thousands of jobs and spur the development of supporting infrastructure, such as roads, railways, and renewable energy systems.
Pipeline Projects with Global Significance
The World Bank identifies eight energy transition mineral (ETM) projects as key to Malawi’s mining transformation:
- Kayelekera Uranium- A former operational mine set to reopen.
- Kasiya Rutile– One of the largest rutile deposits in the world.
- Kankangunde Rare Earth Elements– A high-potential site for rare earth minerals.
- Kanyika Niobium– A niobium and tantalum project with significant export potential.
- Songwe Hills Rare Earth Elements – A project nearing the permitting stage.
- Makanjira Heavy Sands – A site rich in titanium and zirconium.
- Malingunde Graphite– A graphite deposit with applications in battery production.
These projects are expected to attract international investors and position Malawi as a reliable supplier of critical minerals for the global green energy market.
Challenges to Overcome
While the potential is immense, the World Bank cautions that significant challenges remain. Malawi’s mining sector is still in its infancy, with limited institutional capacity, inadequate infrastructure, and lengthy delays in project approvals. The average lead time from discovery to production in Malawi is 27 years, compared to the global average of 18 years, due to bureaucratic hurdles and complex negotiations.
“To fully realize the potential of its mining sector, Malawi must address these challenges head-on,” the report states. “This includes strengthening institutional capacity, improving infrastructure, and creating a stable and predictable regulatory environment that attracts investment.”
The Bank also emphasizes the importance of managing stakeholder expectations, particularly in local communities, where mining projects often raise hopes for immediate job creation and infrastructure development. Transparent communication and inclusive engagement will be critical to building trust and ensuring that the benefits of mining are shared equitably.
A Path to Prosperity
The World Bank’s projections offer a glimpse of what could be a transformative period for Malawi’s economy. Under the baseline scenario, mining exports could generate US$30 billion between 2026 and 2040, with annual exports reaching US$3 billion by 2034. In the best-case scenario, exports could total US$43 billion over the same period, providing a significant boost to government revenues and foreign exchange reserves.
“This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Malawi,” said a local mining expert. “If managed responsibly, the mining sector could become a cornerstone of the country’s economic development, providing jobs, infrastructure, and revenue that will benefit generations to come.”
The government, in partnership with the World Bank, is developing an Energy Transition Minerals (ETM) Roadmap to guide the sustainable development of the sector. The roadmap will focus on improving geological data, strengthening sector governance, and attracting private investment, while ensuring that mining benefits are shared broadly across society.
Looking Ahead
As Malawi prepares to unlock its mineral wealth, the World Bank urges the government to act swiftly to address the challenges facing the sector. By creating a conducive environment for investment, building institutional capacity, and fostering transparency, Malawi can position itself as a key player in the global energy transition—and secure a brighter future for its people.
“The time to act is now,” the report concludes. “With the right policies and investments, Malawi’s mining sector can become a powerful engine for economic growth and sustainable development.”
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