Malawi exit poll show Mutharika may win presidential re-vote narrowly

June 23, 2020 Mike Fiko –Nyasa Times 69 Comments

President Peter Mutharika who is seeking a second term and is being challenged by opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) leader Lazarus Chakwera  were locked in a neck and neck race Tuesday as exit polls showed, the incumbent is likely to win narrowly in a court sanctioned fresh presidential election that was branded historic.

One of the market ballots from a voter who participated in the exit poll survey

The nearly seven million registered voters went to the polls on Tuesday, casting their votes to elect  elect the country’s President for the next five years from three candidates— Peter Mutharika of DPP, Lazarus Chakwera of MCP and Peter Kuwani of Mbakuwaku Movement for Development (MMD) .

A grouping called Anti-Voter Aparthy Network  (Avan) with help of  Nyasa Times  correspondents,  conducted an exit poll covering Lilongwe, Blantyre, Zomba, Mangochi,  Mulanje, Chikwawa, Ntcheu, Kasungu, Mzuzu, Mzimba and Karonga.

Immediately after voters exited the polling stations, they shared why they preferred specific candidates.

Some voters  said they voted for  “the devil they know” but they  feel unemployment and corruption  are key issues the President should address immediately after elections.

The exit poll showed Mutharika receiving 51.4  per cent of votes and Chakwera 44.3 per cent,  Mbakuwaku’s Kuwani accounting for some of the remainder.

Nearly 4 per cent of Malawians  included in the survey refused to indicate for whom they had voted in the presidential race.

Dr Jimmy Namangale, associate professor in statistics and senior lecturer in mathematics at the University of Malawi’s Chancellor College in Zomba, said while he could not comment on the surveys cited without analysing the methodology, it could give a true reflection.

An election exit poll is one that is conducted immediately after voters have exited the polling stations with an objective of finding out how the respondents voted but more specifically, understand respondents demographics, voters experience at the polling centre, main reasons why they voted for a particular candidate and understand when they made a decision to vote for their favorite candidates.

However, the exit polls are notoriously imprecise, meaning the final results could still swing in either direction.

Malawi’s electoral commission (MEC) has since pledged to deliver a credible results with its chief, Dr. Chifundo Kachale asking the 6.8 million registered voters to trust that their will will be respected.

MCP—Malawi’s oldest political party which left power 26 years ago after a 31-year iron-fist one-party dictatorship led by Malawi’s first president Hastings Kamuzu Banda and UTM Party—who challenged the May 21 2019 presidential results, went to the polls to prove through this election that the previous  MEC  led by Jane Ansah robbed them of clear victory through “irregularities”.

On the other hand, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) waned  to prove that they “won” the May 21 2019 presidential election fair and square

Presidential press secretary Mgeme Kalilani said Mutharika “very jovial, calm and confident, saying he is looking forward to the “triumph of democracy and the will of the people.”

He is further calling upon Malawians to remain calm and orderly.

Vote counting in underway across the country and results will be declared withing a period  of eight days.

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69 replies on “Malawi exit poll show Mutharika may win presidential re-vote narrowly”

  2. You have failed just like the DPP candidate, you should consider doing other things, leave surveys to those who have tactics to do credible survey. The results are totally out of order.

  5. What a shame Namangale! We know you know statistics and you taught us well. Why stoop so low because of cadetism?

  7. issues which have been written here are useless and they are coming from a dpp sympathiser

  10. A choice between a well-established cheating, white-glove thief looking to line-up his pockets with bucket-loads of money while his people continue to starve to death, or a religious nut who will probably do the same thing anyway…Tough choice!

  13. 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 basi nyasatimes you’ve lost any value you had at a certain point in time. Canceled!

  14. These exit polls are bull crap! They are probably printed material substance not even worth being toilet paper! Him who wins crookedly shall bear the blunt of ridicule for life!

  16. This might be true, what I know is Yao belt and lomwe belt alipo ambiri… Nyau ndi zochepa

    1. Ayao tinachenjera masiku ano. sitiwombera m’manja zili zonse. Tonse alliance WOYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

  18. By the way, how did they come up with those conclusions even before counting was underway?

  23. Ndiwe wotemberedwa ndithu.part of rgging tactic you were given money.The media rigging tactic have failed.your APM is even trailing chakwera in those southern region districts where can he get the votes

  25. Let me tell the writer of the article that it too premature for him to predict the actual winner of the this race. Wait until tomorrow afternoon and come up with ur own miscalculations like this one !

  26. This what we call day dreaming of the highest order. If Peter Muthalika is behind Chakwera in Ndirande in Blantyre, how do you expect the same Peter Muthalika to be ahead of Chakwera in Karonga,Mzuzu, Mzimba and Lilongwe.

    1. Boniface Dulani is a professional that’s why even Afrobarometer recruited him to be their regional manager. Jimmy Namangale is a common cadet masquerading as a professor

  28. KUGANIZA KWA MBUZI. APM NDI MPHEPO AKUTI SAVOMELEZA MA RESULTS NDIPO LERO AKUKAGONA AKULIRA NDE INU A FIKO GAGWELENI UKO NDI MAGANIZO ANU OPEPELAWO.

  31. MCP will release a new album tomorrow morning titled “ATIBERA VOLUME 7” Featuring is Zeze Saulosi Chilima to be distributed in all TONSE alliance outlets. Pre-release orders are welcome , Be on the look out, get your copy now…

    1. IT IS NOW THE 80 YEARS OLD ADAD WHO IS CRYING THE LOUDEST .BLANTYRE ,MZIMBA, ZOMBA HAVE KNOCKED HIM DOWN WHILE LILONGWE IS JUST FINISHING HIM OFF.

  34. With the current results coming, news from DPP camp indicates that Peter is expected to concede defeat before 12 noon tomorrow. This is the maturity that we all expected from the old man. Retire in Peace Peter.

  35. If you look at the districts sampled in that survey, and dpp is leading only with 7% then Tonse alliance will win the overall poll with a good margin. Remember Kasungu and Lilongwe are the only districts that are regarded as mcp stronghold as compared with Mlanje, Blantyre, Zomba, Mangochi, Chikwawa, Ntcheu are all dpp bedrock. Mzuzu, Mzimba, and Karonga are less populated and are only kingmakers to Tonse alliance not a backbone.
    Truth is, central region will cancel the dpp threat from the South and the North is a deciding factor for Tonse alliance to win the election end of story.

  37. Kkk useless ppl always think they can overpower the DPP. When the surveys favours the DPP, it’s not right but your tiny parties. Take it or not, DPP is here to stay. They are unmovable, it’s invincible party. By tomorrow morning, you will judge yourselves that you can not compete with the blues. DPP woyeeeee
    Prof Arthur Mutharika woyeeee
    Atu woyeeee. Mcp is a crying baby and will never come back into govt. We are done and it’s a closed chapter for mcp.

  40. A mayikolo fiko ingodikirani for the final results musanyanse a Malawi…….this time we will check and verify each and every vote to make sure it has all the security features…..

    Vote stuffing won’t work this time.

  43. Za ziiiìiii
    Maloto a Majoti mdziko la chilendo kkķkkk
    Exit polls ndiye kuti chiyani ?
    I bet you Dpp can’t win the elections.
    Mike fiko mwatani nanu ?
    Akudyetsani bazi a tcheya ?

  45. I don’t think so, last time it was false because it was rigged so i disagree with unless you’re well a ware that they’ll rig again.

  46. Wishful thinking. I am receiving results as they are being posted and Chakwera is leading by 80% so I know this is just another wishful thinking. Peter is losing by a huge margin. He is no near Chakwera. These are actual results posted not polls where one says he has voted for Peter when he actually voted for Chakwera.

  47. Wishing thinking. Just keep dreaming and see how God will shame the evil in Malawi

  50. It’s easy to conduct an exit poll; even me I did my own. I sampled 100 of my friends on what they posted on Facebook their voting preference; out of my 100 friends I picked to check; 47 showed they voted for Mutharika while 45 said they voted for ‘change’ meaning Chakwera while 8 of my friends did not come clear on what they voted for apart from showing their ink to prove they voted; so yeah this could be some light

  51. a vote its a personal secret, so why publish something like this in the middle of an election, why post an election material.

  53. Last year you also wrote an exit poll that said neck-to neck between DPP and MCP and indeed it came out true Mutharika was top with 38% and Chakwera 36 %. I always trust exit polls and given your last year exit polls came true this could be a true reflection

    1. Cadet at work. You are a true cadet Fiko. Unfortunately when the Government has changed you will swallow your vomit

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