Malawi govt dismiss opinion polls: Dausi says no way Mutharika can be unpopular ‘its mercurial and mala fide ’
Malawi government has rejected the opinion poll showing that President Peter Mutharika’s popularity has dipped as opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) leader Lazarous Chakwera’s ratings climbed.
Minister of Information, Communications and Technology (ICT), Nicholous Dausi said the opinion poll by Central Media Development (CMD) Limited is a scheme to tarnish the DPP government and described it a manipulated survey, saying there is no point discussing it .
Dausi, who is also government spokesman, dismissed the CMD Limited survey as mercurial or irrelevant or both.
“The only poll that matters is the one on election day. The opinion poll is wrong, disingenuous and mala-fide,” he said.
He termed the opinion polls unreliable and inaccurate “released out of paranoa, fallacy, political inertia and it’s a bunch of bull—- propaganda.”
Dausi questioned the methodology of the pollsters, saying it lacks credibility.
But CMD Limited which is owned among them Thomson Reuters journalist Mabvuto Banda, said tt is not a good idea to dismiss public surveys out of hand.
It explained the methodology it used in the survey conducted mostly by university students and journalists.
“A total sample size of 3,883 respondents was used and this sample was assigned to the regions and districts based on the population ratios of the 2008 population and housing census,” said CMD Limited in a poll report.
According to the national statistical office, the total population of Malawi in 2008 was 13,077,160 comprising of 1,798,930(Northern Region) representing about 13% of the total population, while the southern region contributed 5,858,035 representing 45% of the population, and finally the Central Region with 5,510,195 representing 42% of the total population.
Following the 2008 population distribution ( by region), the survey assigned the sample size of 3883 to the Northern, Central and Southern Region using 13%,42% and 45% respectively, translating to 500 respondents( about 13%) in the NorthernRegion, 1633 respondents (42%) in the Central Region and 1750 respondents ( 45%) in the Southern Region.
“The regional samples were further assigned to districts, by using the population distribution ratios as of 2008 population and housing census results. Blantyre, Lilongwe and Zomba were divided into city and district, i.e. Zomba City and Zomba district; Blantyre City and Blantyre district; Lilongwe district and Lilongwe City. The same applied for Mzimba which was divided into Mzimba district and Mzuzu City,” said CMD.
Further, due to logistical challenges, the team was not able to have interviews on Likoma Island, saying there is no result for Likoma district.
The interviews included and accounted for a sub-sample of 3,183 “likely voters,” corresponding to a presidential election turnout of 82 percent, it said.
CMD said the survey is based on a representative sample of all areas of the country, including the most rural; over 240 different sampling points included small rural villages. (e.g.Lanston Njema EA7, STA Chitekwere EA31, and phalombe TA mkhumba EA109) results from the full sample are subject to weighing the data to account for potential abnormalities in various sampling environments, improving the statistical margin of sampling error to +/-3.1 percent; and results for likely voters are subject to a margin sampling of sampling error of+/-3.6 percent.
The pollsters said the public claimed that President Muthaika needs to live the austerity talk and continue to pursue all roads of stopping and prosecuting corrupt activity.
It said people want Mutharika’s ruling DPP to “stop exaggerating the fruits of the economic reform as the so called fruits have not yet trickled down to the masses in full.”
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In the first place,Dausi is just a quisling servile of the unpopular President Muthalika in the history of our country.He stands for his empty and confused trends,he does not speak on behalf of the majority of the people, but his own opportunistic interests.The fact of the matter is that the both two so-called leaders are not the choice of the people of Malawi.In his first term,Muthalika has been proved an idiot and inept leader who has undoubtedly plunged our country into an irreversible and chaotic situation never experienced by Malawians in 52 years of independence.Far worse,he has no vision where he would take our nation,he has filled his fellow Lomwes in all strategic positions making the government less and less efficient and more and more corrupt.As far as Chakwera is concerned,he has no chance of winning the next elections in 2019 in the sense that he has inherited a Party which is drenched in blood of sons and daughters of Malawi.He also made a blunder not to condemn the Banda regime for its brutalities against our citizens on his inauguration as if nothing happened during Banda’s rule of 32 years.Chakwera seems not to comprehend the political history of independent Africa that political Parties which had been in power in defiance of National Constitutions,never regained the support of the voters and thus,finally became dinosaurs The good instance are,UNIP of Zambia,TANU of Tanzania and KANU of Kenya.Iam not sure that MCP has the magic card.Again,to stop the corrupt DPP from being re-elected into power,the opposition parties : PP,UDF and AFORD must form a UNITED FRONT.Iam aware of the fact that AFORD has taken a long leave from political activities,but it can resurrect through hard work,trust and patriotic zeal without which,DPP with billions of stolen funds,will win again not because it is popular,but could attract a lot of voters’ sympathy through money and if that woud be the case,tragically,Malawians will be in deep trouble economically and politically.DEAR FELLOW MALAWIANS,TAKE MY WORD IF DPP IS VOTED TO POWER AGAIN,KNOW THAT WE ARE IN PERIL OF DESTROYING OUR DEAR MOTHER MALAWI.I WISH YOU HAPPY CHRISTIMAS AND VERY PROGRESSIVE NEW YEAR THAT WOULD TAKE US TO NEW MALAWI UNDER NEW PROGRESSIVE LEADERSHIP!!!!!!!!!!!
Hon. Dausi, Sir. What do you mean by saying ‘ …………its mercurial ( which means erratic or unpredictable) and malafide (which means not genuine or in bad faith)? ‘Simply what you have said is:-‘ ……..its unpredictable and not genuine’. Now people write/talk inorder to effectively communicate so that the receiver should understand and act accordingly. Now if we start bombarding the public with big words we may not achieve our aim of effective communication.
Mr Kent Mphepo, thank you for being very objective writer, most of writers especially people commenting for Dpp, if can follow them along, you will find that all they see is no matter what, Peter and dpp must rule until 2024; even if they don’t deliver. I have said time and again that they can rule Malawi even beyond that time if God so decides, Malawi belongs to God first and leaders are just servants Psalms 75:1-7; their aguement is that because they are so many people there it means that north and central can not win an election, fine, but does it mean that just because you over populated there, you should give Malawian people in qualified head of state? Poor judgement? Completely foreigners? Anyone? Do you not have other men who can run this country with sight?
I say if its about being more than all other regions, then God will fight for minority, in number He knows how to do it, we have trust in Him, there many ways of changing political leadership from south to central, or north, so do not be too selfish and act like you created Malawi.
Thank you
aye aye aye unlearned people always dispute the truth
I think attacking Dausi as someone who is not versed with sampling procedures is uncalled for because even if it were me as someone well versed with Research Methodology as a discipline would have first questioned the methodology. As is the case with any surveys the issue of sample size and sampling procedures always come to mind and it is the first question one asks when results of a survey are out. Inu mwachita kuphunzira chotani kuti munyoze anzanu? Chanco yomweyi ili pa nambala 169 in Africa yi? Ife bwanji sitikunyozani yet we went to one of the top universities in Africa.
That’s what happens when you hire people with low IQs into positions that are very demanding. So Dausi thinks bombastic words can be used to clear the “bibi” DPP has become?
I am not going to debate on the popularity or otherwise of the president, Peter Mutharika. Instead, I will put down some of the points made in outgoing president of Ghana’s concession speech. It is up to you the readers to relate it to our Malawi situation. Mahama lost the elections on July 7, 2016 after ruling Ghana for one term only of 4 years. He conceded defeat and took full responsibility for his loss. Not only did he congratulate the new president, he also advised him to avoid the pitfalls that brought him down. 1) He warned him to be careful when choosing the people he will be working with, ‘your success or failure depends on the people you surround yourself with. The praise-singing sycophants who act on the dictates of their stomachs are only specialised in telling you what you want to hear. Unfortunately, I did not listen to voices of reason’ he said. 2) The people of Ghana, though mainly uneducated and simple are more sophisticated than he thought. Even those in his party’s stronghold had voted against him. To this effect, no amount of deceptive campaign promises could keep him in power, no amount of monopolization in the media space could save him, no amount of money could stop.his defeat, no amount of vote buying could help him and no amount of local or international celebrity endorsement could help him. 3) It is an acceptable for people to loot, hoard and splash during elections. 4) The calls of the noisy.minority cannot be ignored because they largely shape the opinions of the silent minority, who the politician a exploit for their selfish gains. 5) Not all those ‘who criticized us hated us. Sometimes the best way to express your love for someone is to be critical of their actions’. 6) The voters should be looked at as human beings, not as votes. 7) ‘What has befallen us can befall you if you allow the intoxicating power to blind you. These are some of the observations made by outgoing Ghana president Mahama on why he lost the polls and some pieces of advice to his successor. People should not be taken for granted, even if they are in a party’s stronghold. Not all of them may be happy and may show the displeasure by voting for a person of an another party, like they did with Ghanaian president Mahama.
What is the REAL poll rating of Mutharika and Chakwera. The way the poll has been presented in the articlesis really myopic. How can an entire story talk about the previous and current rating of the twof all olitical leaders? It sounds agenda-led.
kodi angasewere ndi DPP ndan kungoti amene amapanga reseachwo anangosowa chochita amenewo.
Countrymen,
Let me congratulate the man I fondly call the “Ngwazi Boy” for climbing to this critical position which I consider the life-blood of any government’s public image. For sure, Mr. Dausi is a capable person in many ways. He always amazes me with the rare charisma and a flare of flowery language that God has endowed him with. I also admire the pride that he attaches to his Catholic values as he discharges his duties particularly as he faces the public with various controversial matters. Not many of us are willing to identify ourselves with our faith when discharging public duties. Congrats, Ngwazi Boy!!
For some reason I was hesitant to comment on the matter at hand. However, I think that I have one thought or two to share with both sides of the divide. MCP and DPP.
Let me reveal that I am one of the few Malawians who stack with Donald Trump at the time when everybody felt that Hilary was going to win the US elections. Being someone who has keenly followed world politics since the Cold War ended exactly 25 years ago, I was able to see more things than most people were not able to see. I did not hide my opinion to anybody who cared to listen to my “crazy” reasons for giving Trump a chance. I was actually surprised that the traditional media and pollsters in the USA were not able to add 1+1 in a context that was so obvious to me. In short, that election, showed to the world that the media and opinion pollsters too are not infallible. It is possible for the media and pollsters to completely miss the point.
However, we all need to accept that, more often than not, the media and opinion research companies are more likely to predict election results with precision than the rest of us who are not directly involved with issues in the public sphere unless there is enough proof that the methodology used is compromised or contaminated with wrong motive. I, honestly, cannot give my opinion on the integrity of this opinion poll (CMD’s opinion) suffice to say that if indeed Mabvuto Banda was involved, then I have all reason to vouch for it knowing the calibre of Malawian Mabvuto is. Otherwise, I can only stop there since this is not the purpose of my submission.
I am writing to advise both DPP and MCP to exercise caution each time a company carries out an opinion poll. My observation is that the tendency usually is to easily dismiss the results of an opinion poll unless it puts us in good light. I still remember that two-three months ago another research company predicted that Peter Mutharika and his DPP are most likely going to win the 2019 elections and one MCP official quickly dismissed the results. Today, DPP is doing the same thing. Come to think of it: “Suppose this opinion poll showed that DPP was in the lead, how would DPP have reacted?” if I may ask. “Would they have questioned the methodology that the pollster used like the “Ngwazi Boy” is doing here?? Suppose this opinion poll put MCP in bad light, would they have accepted the results or they would have gone the “Ngwazi Boy” road of shouting “grapes are sour!!” In both cases, my answer is NO!! I have not seen anything of that sort. In Malawi, opinion polls are only correct and valid when your party is taking a lead. I have problems with that.
Let me propose that Malawian political parties must begin to move away from this kind of thinking. Let’s begin to be more objective when approaching matters of this nature. My major fear is that unnecessary negativity and rebuttals may not always work to the advantage of “losing” political parties. If anything this is what the Chewa call “kuzimitsa moto ndi gaga.” I personally think that, if scientifically done, such polls can work to the advantage of the “loosing’ party since they are usually pointers to what may come ahead. They afford the party an opportunity to start mending tents “madzi asanafika mkhosi!” At the risk of sounding unfair to the DPP camp, let me suggest some valid reasons why DPP needs to seriously give these “disappointing” results some grain of thought and I am doing this to assist the camp make some good thinking as they approach 2019 lest they see their worst fears come true when Malawians go to vote in two and half year’s time from now:
First, DPP needs to remember what was happening in September to November, 2016 since such incidents may have influenced public opinion against President Mutharika and his party. If my memory serves me well, this was the time when the UNGA debate was hot. People demanded transparency on how many people went to UNGA and how much was spent on the trip. It is also the time when the tobacco market hit its lowest ebb in the history of the tobacco industry. By the way, many farmers are still keeping tobacco bales in their sheds, zigafa and khondes. President Mutharika conveniently avoided to go and answer questions in Parliament knowing too well that the opposition would have a field day in the media that whole week! DPP should also not forget that several donors came out publicly to demand serious and speedy action on corruption cases involving billions of kwacha that continue to be lost from government coffers. Up to now, MK577 (236?) Billion scandal remains a mystery to us Malawians. Besides, several Cashgate convicts remain unsentenced and still bathing in their stolen money. My foot!!
September to November was also a time when teachers were threatening to go on the street to push government to pay them huge salary arrears. DPP should also not forget that blackouts and water shortage were the older of the day in most urban centers of the country and last time I checked the situation has not improved. DPP should also not forget that September to November 2016 was also the time when the debate on the land bill was hot forcing a large number of chiefs to demonstrate against government.
It was also in the same period when Vincent Wandale and thousands of his followers had declared Mulanje and Thyolo a separate sovereign state outside Malawi and all because of the dissatisfaction fanned by government’s failure to take advantage of the new land bills to redistribute idle land monopolized by white farmers in the two districts. DPP also needs to remember that it was in this period when Kamlepo Kalua went head-on with government over the allegation of 7 corrupt ministers that government is allegedly shielding through the Anti-Corruption Bureau and MCP was agitating that ACB be freed from the presidential prerogative of appointing its Director General.
It is also in September to November that the nation learnt that Malawi had 6.7 million people who may starve to death if government does not act swiftly. In the same period Malawians also learnt that the much awaited FISP coupons had been drastically delayed and that there were no signs that beneficiaries would receive them before rains begin.
And, is it not in the same period that we learnt that the Reserve Bank of Malawi was going to print a MK2,000 note? What impression did that action leave in the minds of most Malawians?? Is it not in the same period when we learnt with shock that the ACB was failing to arrest some top DPP officials even after warrants of arrest had been issued by our courts? Is it not in the same period that we learnt of high corruption at ESCOM, MERA, Roads Authority, etc? How about the tractorgate involving over 140 tractors worth billions of kwacha – TO BE PAID FOR BY TAX PAYERS ALTHOUGH IT IS THE RICH WHO BOUGHT THEM FOR A SONG – was this not hot in September – November, 2016??
What am I saying in all this? Simple: Malawians will have to be a bunch of dead people or zombees for them to tell the opinion pollster that President Mutharika and his DPP had the potential to attract the much needed donor confidence and votes from Malawian voters in 2019 if the status-quo remains unchanged! The point is: this opinion poll was conducted at the time when the socio-econonic and socio-political environment was at its lowest in the history of this country. It is, therefore, foolhardy for the DPP through the “Ngwazi Boy” to think that they can drop the ball and still expect Malawians to feel positive about them. This opinion poll must, therefore, wake them up from slumber and start sorting out the problems that Malawians are facing right now.
Secondly, let me also remind the DPP government that it is foolhardy to fail to fulfill campaign promises thinking that Malawi politics is not issue-based and that the regional or tribal voting pattern will save them. Well, once upon a time, in 2009, Malawians proved that this is not always the truth. That year they proved, beyond any reasonable doubt, that when they want to, they are capable of upsetting the tables and vote based on issues and not boundaries or tribal lines. In my view, the issues I have outlined above are very serious. For example, I personally think that the people in the starving Southern Region will, 2019, not risk their lives by voting for DPP – just to keep Peter Mutharika and his elite supporters in power!! “Njala ndi nkhondo,” says the old Chewa adage.
Thirdly, let me, in the same breath, send a strong warning to MCP who might be having “mwendo muufa” for hearing this positive opinion poll. Like, we have learnt from the recent USA elections it is not always that the media and opinion pollsters will be correct in their prediction about the future. In my view, much as I would not stop them from celebrating, I feel that this is time for them to give alternative views to government so that the sitting government can begin to deliver on its promises. As government in waiting, it is not enough to just feel good about positive opinion polls but it is about giving alternative policy proposals to the sitting government so that our country can begin to move forward. Remember what Muluzi said: was are in one boat. We will sink together if the boat sinks. No one is safe. No Island.
So, Mr. Dausi, swallow the bullet. You can dismiss the results of this opinion to your own party’s peril. The situation on the ground in not encouraging at all. True, it may be wrong. But, who knows? It could be true. So, start doing something about the problems that Malawians are facing, otherwise they are capable of doing the unexpected if taken for granted. Your job is really cut out for you, Sir!
But any ways, congrats for rising to that top position. I have trust that you will perform. Remember, though, that the truth shall set you free. I rest my case.
Kent Y.G. Mphepo – Blantrye (0888435629 – for constructive dialogue only)
people have a lot of things to do in their offices..Zomwezi mpaka dissertation. Two three four sentences are enough.
SOMEONE IS LISTENING…… WELL DONE NYASA TIMES.
This is pure daydreaming. MCP kummwera inatha kalekale. Mia is not a force to reckon with. It was his late father who was popular. Iyeyo was riding on his father’s popularity.
Muzadziwa southern region in 2019. If in doubt, ask Amai. There is no way a church minister drop out can rule Malawi.
Mr Dausi, That’s why you failed to become a Catholic priest, DPP member with MCP in his blood, Chakwera is the Man of the game, That’s reality.
MCP asakunamizeni anthuwa. Mukati mukhale pansi ndi kuyamba kumanvela zonamazi muzazizimuka 2019, iyitu ndi DPP musayiwale. Propaganda yokhayokha ili apayi. Kkkkkkkkkkk kodi ndi liti DPP yawina ku KASUNGU lija?? Simwezi watha womwewu?? Kkkkkkk muchedwatu kkkkkk, Malawi sizazuka mpakana kalekale.
MCP asakunamizeni anthuwa. Mukati mukhale pansi ndi kuyamba kumanvela zonamazi muzazizimuka 2019, iyitu ndi DPP musayiwale. Propaganda yokhayokha ili apayi. Kkkkkkkkkkk kodi ndi liti DPP yawina ku KASUNGU lija?? Simwezi watha womwewu?? Kkkkkkk muchedwatu kkkkkk, Malawi sizazuka mpakana kalekale.
Mr Saudi
Don’t waste time with these idiots They are still crying.
Grief is contained in many ways. Some accept the grief for short time and life still goes on some it takes time while others like Chakwera and crocodile party Mcp takes forever until they die. Mcp will never accept that they are in intensive ears soon we shall attend the burrial for Mcp
I am in Mzuzu I know how popular Dpp is.
Don’t waste your time Peter for Malawi until 2024.
Peter for Malawi until 2024. Kkkkk If. He lives longer by then. How old is He going tog be? If u want to keep a dead body for a poor country like yours. Its only change of leadership which can bring change in Malawi.
Dausi does not know any research methodology, data analysis and interpretation. He has never been at any college- neither does he understand academic issues. Refute and defend system is what DPP wants. In true sense the DPP may be blamed for blackouts, corruption, hunger andall the challenges in Malawi. But there is a room for improvement.
eeeeh….ziliko chaka chino
Tisavutike Ndikutsutsana
Only God Knows Tisavutike Ndikutsutsana
INERTIA! HW DO U JUSTIFY THIS? MR DAUSI, U NEEDED TO CRITIQUE THAN CRITICISING.
so a study among journalists and university students has become public opinions? everyone knows that journalists today are in active politics and university students are not happy with school fee increase and closure of the colleges. is that the right target to make as national public opinions? dausi is right to question objectivity and unbalaclnced results of the study
So you expect the Lhomwes and Yaos in the South to opt for Chakwera than their fellow southerner, Mutharika? This survey would make sense if it was conducted in Britain or the USA, or any other country in the West because they vote on principals. Here we have not reached a stage where a voter from Nkando can opt for Chakwera just because there is no electricity in the area of this voter. There is nothing Chakwera has shown that he can change things in Malawi therefore no one can leave his party and follow him as if he has started showing something positive. He is just busying himself with press conferences as if people can eat that. It is such polls which fooled Joyce Banda when they predicted her win in the 2014. Chakwera if he can be true to himself should just rubbish this opinion because this will never happen on the ground as long as regional voting in Malawi is there. Amenewa ndi maloto a chumba.
Have u tried Chakwela and see He has not done anything? U are in Malawi u vote for a fool because He comes from yours area for that Malawi is the poorest nation and poorest people in The whole world. How can u spreciate the importance of magnesi when u Have never lived a modern life, and dont know magesi is needed for development of a nation. We.know what that michona and his brother has done to Malawi. Dont u Have a bryter Southerner If that is what u think for Malawi. Even ma donors amumana ndalama. A cheap professor. Bingu was better in 5 years time then came that man to live luxury life while Malawians are suffering. If u knew Donors dont like him. Majority of Malawians dont like him as a leader. Southerners are Malawians and live in Malawi too. Its not only one party of Malawi suffering. Chakwela won koma anabela ma vote. God will rule like in his brother.
hilary on the opinion Clinton won the opinion polls but all know what happened to her.
sometimes the questions people ask in a survey like this one needs review by an independent person
Sounds quite scientific to me. I’m surprised government wants to dismiss as fallacy.
A million dollar question is: What knowledge does Dausi has in statistical sampling and surveys in opinion polls? Does he have any acquaintance with Mathematical statistics or data systems or sampling procedures? Dausi is a disgrace to knowledge and is malicious to people’s wisdom and achievements.
Dausi should be confined to the archives of atrociousness because that’s where he belongs. It is so hard for this man of ‘meaningless big words’ to blend in the hard-fought democracy Malawi has because his soul was eaten up by his evil mind during Kamuzu’s era. He combined backstabbing and sinister eavesdropping on people with an intentional dirty hand of elimination. He was a terror in his own making and was liked by Kamuzu and John Tembo, both terror spiders. The success of the then MCP atrocities was centered on people like Dausi and his cronies.You would expect a person like him to be tired of bad actions by now and resort to fully-blown Christianity,but gosh! Dausi enjoys the ‘BAD BOY’ image even if other people’s souls are entwined.
For the leadership of Malawi to entrust information responsibilities in the hands of Dausi speaks volumes of what kind of a wacky administration Malawians are faced with. Belts have to be tightened for the trip will be long on a rough road.
Dausi is excited with his new job and cant listen to anything contrary. Can he understand surveys/research methodologies and basic statistics for analysis survey results. His level of education tells us NO. So to deny something that you don’t understand is dangerous. If i were him I would accept the results and say that the Party would improve.
Dausi don’t become Minister of Denial and Refute. it wont make you wise in anyway