Malawi tobacco regulator says revised output target remains within reach

Malawi’s Tobacco Commission has said the country remains on track to conclude this year’s marketing season within its revised production forecast, despite a significant downward adjustment in expected output and continued pressure from adverse weather conditions.

The regulator’s latest assurance follows the third crop assessment, completed in June, which cut the national production estimate to 155 million kilogrammes, down from an initial projection of 190 million kilogrammes.

As of 13 August, after 17 weeks of trading, the market had absorbed 135 million kilogrammes, against buyers’ demand of roughly 170 million kilogrammes.

The Commission said the remaining volume required to meet the revised target is “relatively small”, and that current trading patterns suggest the season will close without major disruption.

TC spokesperson Telephorus Chigwenembe attributed the fall in output to a combination of weather‑related shocks and structural constraints.

Prolonged rainfall led to fertiliser leaching and weight loss in burley tobacco, particularly across the Kasungu, Mzuzu and Lilongwe divisions.

He added that post‑harvest losses, driven by inadequate barn capacity and disease infestation, further reduced marketable volumes.

Market performance continues to vary across the country’s auction floors. Lilongwe Floors remains the largest trading hub, accounting for 40.52% of volumes sold as of 7 August.

Its average price of $1.98/kg sits marginally below the national mean of $2.00/kg, reflecting the high proportion of burley tobacco handled there.

Mzuzu Floors accounted for 27.13% of volumes at $2.02/kg, while Limbe Floors recorded the strongest prices at $2.25/kg, supported by higher volumes of flue‑cured tobacco from commercial growers in the southern region.

The Asycuda system upgrade — financed through the $150mn Southern Africa Trade and Connectivity Project, which runs until 2027 — continues to underpin improvements in customs processing and revenue collection, according to officials.

With the revised production target now within reach, the Commission said it remains “optimistic” that the 2026 tobacco marketing season will conclude smoothly, barring any late‑season shocks.