‘Malawi’s exports have fallen off a cliff’: Minister Mbilizi  sounds alarm as agriculture sector plunges into crisis 

Malawi’s agriculture sector is facing a mounting crisis, with damning new figures revealing the country’s export base has collapsed by 31 percent in less than a decade, as Minister of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development Roza Mbilizi issued a stark call for urgent transformation.

Speaking at the official opening of the three-day 22nd National Agriculture Fair in Blantyre, Mbilizi declared it was “high time” Malawi fundamentally changed how it approaches agricultural production, insisting the country must shift focus from simply producing more to producing smarter.

Only 20% of new exporters survive past their first year

The scale of the crisis was laid bare in shocking World Bank data presented at the event, showing Malawi’s exports plummeted by 31 percent between 2014 and 2023, while the number of exporting firms collapsed from an average of 1,069 between 2009 and 2012 down to just 684 in 2024 — compared to an average of 2,996 in other African countries.

Even more alarming, survival rates among Malawian exporters have proven dismal, with only 20 percent of new exporters between 2006 and 2024 surviving into their second year of operation, and a mere 5.8 percent making it as far as a third year.

Tobacco dependency leaves economy dangerously exposed

Malawi’s export basket remains dangerously concentrated in a single crop, with tobacco accounting for a staggering 61 percent of all goods exported in 2024 — a level of dependency the World Bank has directly linked to the country’s weak export performance, alongside low production capacity, inadequate skills, limited foreign exchange and non-tariff barriers driving up trade and transport costs.

Major export deals fell through amid quality and volume failures

The country’s struggles were further exposed by revelations that Malawi failed to meet a 50,000-metric tonne annual export agreement with India, while a lucrative $295 million annual food export deal with South Sudan — covering maize flour among other products — also fell severely short of its target, after products went bad or suffered from low quality and inadequate volumes.

Sesame producers face a similarly frustrating story, with a guaranteed 200,000-metric tonne export market secured in Japan going largely untapped due to chronically low production levels, according to the World Food Programme.

Maize yields lag far behind national targets

The production gap is particularly stark in maize, Malawi’s staple crop, where average yields of just 2.1 metric tonnes per hectare remain far below the 2024 National Adaptation Plan’s target of four metric tonnes — and dramatically short of the crop’s estimated potential yield of 10 metric tonnes per hectare.

Despite agriculture absorbing more than 10 percent of the national budget, the World Bank warns that low productivity, weak value chains and limited private-sector investment continue to choke the sector’s contribution to exports and incomes.

Mbilizi insisted government’s ambitions must shift decisively toward value creation rather than sheer output.

“Our goal is to translate increased production into higher incomes, stronger businesses and a more prosperous Malawi,” she said, framing the challenge as central to fulfilling the agricultural commercialisation pillar of Malawi 2063 (MW2063), the country’s long-term development strategy.

Launched in January 2021, MW2063 is built around three pillars — agricultural productivity and commercialisation, industrialisation and urbanisation — with ambitions to transform Malawi into a wealthy, self-reliant, industrialised lower middle-income nation by 2030, and an upper middle-income country by 2063.

Illovo Sugar (Malawi) plc Managing Director Ronald Ngwira, who also serves as President of the Malawi Confederation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (MCCCI), struck a more hopeful tone, pointing to signs of progress in government’s engagement with the private sector, including efforts to dismantle barriers that have long constrained industry growth.

“Winds of change are coming. Being willing to become climate resilient and sustainably producing for the export market is critical to ensure that Malawi remains on the map,” Ngwira said, stressing that the private sector must move beyond simply increasing production and instead focus on efficiency, value addition and profitable market access.

“Our challenge is therefore not simply to produce more, but to produce efficiently, add value and connect production to profitable markets,” he added.

Speaking separately, Limeset Industry Managing Director Eunice Kafwamba warned that soaring electricity tariffs and transport costs were significantly limiting her company’s growth, despite the critical role agricultural lime plays in improving soil health and strengthening crop yields.

She revealed that access to agricultural lime remains alarmingly low among farming households, largely due to limited awareness rather than availability, making it difficult for farmers to maximise yields and accelerate commercialisation.

Government points to support programmes amid mounting pressure

Export Development Fund marketing and communication specialist Deliby Chimbalu said the fund had ramped up debt financing, including export packaging credit, to help exporters meet production and supply requirements, alongside risk-sharing guarantees designed to ease the financial burden on struggling businesses.

Government pointed to several ongoing interventions aimed at reversing the sector’s decline, including the World Bank-funded Agriculture Commercialisation Project 2, which has already provided grants to 425 producer organisations and 41 small businesses, alongside the Sustainable Agriculture Production Programme II, which is currently supporting more than 700 farmer groups through irrigation, mechanisation, processing, storage and improved access to market information.

77 exhibitors gather under banner of “transformation”

This year’s National Agriculture Fair, hosted by MCCCI under the theme “Transforming agriculture through innovation, value addition and market linkages,” has drawn 77 exhibitors occupying 139 booths, bringing together agricultural input suppliers, agro-processors, farmer organisations, service providers, research institutions and livestock stakeholders in what organisers hope will spark renewed momentum behind Malawi’s struggling agricultural export ambitions.

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