Mutharika is frontrunner, says Malawi leading statistician: Ipor survey faulted
A leading academician and statistician at Chancellor College (Chanco)—a constituent college of the University of Malawi — has said indications are clear that President Peter Mutharika will be re-elected next week and dismissed as flawed a survey which has put Lazarus Chakwera of Malawi Congress Party (MCP).
Dr. Jimmy Namangale has said the survey —conducted by the Zomba-based Institute of (Ipor) between April 25 and June 3— which gives Chakwera report lacks objectivity and professionalism that characterize a credible research finding.
“They failed to study human behavior, a component which is critical in any opinion research,” said the academician.
Namangale said to the contrary, Mutharika of the DPP-UDF alliance is the frontrunner and likely to win the poll.
According to the statistician, Ipor erred by using the same sample size across the country’s geographical reasons despite the regions having different populations and different numbers of registered voters.
Namangale also indicated that that the 2019 annulled presidential election was not rigged but was only marred by irregularities, insinuating that the 2020 result may not be different from that of 2029 where President Peter Mutharika was declared winner.
Director of research at Ipor, Boniface Dulani, said they respect Namangale as “a fellow academic” but said his argument also has “mathematical errors.”
In his scrutiny of the Ipor results, Namangale states: ” It may likely be another close contest than Ior has reported but it does seem DPP has a slightly upper hand to have more votes. The 50%+1 [majority] may even fail if the third candidate manages to get votes close to the deficit threshold talked about above.
“Otherwise, it is very unrealistic think of DPP/UDF support to have declined considerably, these are likely to be the majority of the respondents that are not willing to air their choices.”
In politics and election race, a day is longer for one to hit or miss it.
I have read the IPOR report, and would like to commend the effort. However, from a politically sober statistical point, the sample size N=1346 could be misleading in making sweeping statement as the statistical power is much much compromised for generalisation of the results. Second, nothing is mentioned in the methodology on ”Reliability of the results”-it is common practice to provide the Cronbach’s alpha of the responses, it should be >0.8; hence I am blank about the results’s reliability for a survey. If you carry out a survey in November and ask people on hunger your results will be biased,… Read more »
Okumva wamva. Ankhutukumvenu khalani choncho in denial. APM shall carry the day period!!! And your courts shall not bail you out this time around inu a UTMCP. MCP can not win a genuine election in this country. The party is too bloody and too ruthless to be voted into power.
In your dreams
The survey was so biased and misleading. IPOR argues that more DPP supporters will be compelled to vote to retain power. Sure! It is in fact the MCP voters who are set to vote so that they remove DPP from power. The issue is that discomfort is a coercive factor for change. This is what will because MCP supporters have gone through hardships and they want uncompromised change. IPOR further argues that there will be a deficit of 70,000 voters between LMC and APM. He is saying the deficit could sway either way to which I object because the difference… Read more »
All pointers in Dr Namangale’s report is 100 % correct. We can hate him, but, if you look at the pointers, surely, Mutharika is taking the day. Let people be reminded of the time of Chakwamba, remember those messages “ Muvale Gwanda” but ended miserably.
it seems you forget that Chakwamba won the election, only that he was not bold enough to contest the results to the end. by then many people were still blind like you still are.
This is 2020 kunjaku kwachaaaaa!!!!!!!!!
Susan Namangale wa Mota Engil kaya akadali konko anali cadet kwambiri ngakhale iye amachokera ku KK. The Namangales are cadets.
A statistician who works with ‘mistaken’ data and draws patently wrong conclusions and will not admit to the consequent erroneous conclusions is not worthy the name!!!!!!
Namangale akunyoza njira zimene anzao agwiritsa kuti adziwe uyo angapambane koma iye palibe wanena njira yake yosonyeza kuti Mutharika ndiye amene awine.so agree ndi ena kuit it lacks basis and wangofuna kuti tidziwe enafe kuti ati a Namangale the statician kaya.
Nkhani yakula apa ndi yoti a Namangale angofuna kudyera dpp masiku ake omaliza , alandiliretu chifukwa after 23 june, dpp sitilola kupisa mthumba mwa boma , Chakwera-Chilima team akutenga boma.
The argument of Namangale lacks basis and its purely partisan with persona interest
Namangale na pita wosi mbachekulu..wangatiphalira vichi chakutukula Malawi.🤪🤪🤪
Namangale ndi mulomwe and akuzinamiza yekha alira anya awona