Mutharika Poised for Dramatic Comeback as Chakwera Runs Out of Road
Former President Peter Mutharika is inching closer to reclaiming State House, after official results from 24 district councils put him well ahead of his nearest challenger, incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera.
According to the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), Mutharika has so far secured 2,022,879 votes, while Chakwera trails with 729,425 votes. The figures place the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate firmly in the driver’s seat, with his party dominating 21 out of the 24 councils already announced.
With only 12 councils left to declare, Mutharika now requires fewer than 300,000 votes to surpass the 50% + 1 threshold needed for an outright win. By contrast, Chakwera faces an almost impossible task: he would need to harvest over 1.6 million votes from the remaining councils to overturn Mutharika’s commanding lead.
The results so far suggest a decisive shift in voter sentiment compared to the 2020 Fresh Presidential Election, where Chakwera and the Tonse Alliance rode a wave of public frustration with DPP’s governance to secure victory. Five years later, however, economic stagnation, deepening cost-of-living pressures, and persistent corruption scandals have eroded confidence in Chakwera’s leadership, creating fertile ground for Mutharika’s resurgence.
Mutharika, who ruled from 2014 to 2020, had been written off by critics as a spent force after the courts nullified his 2019 re-election due to widespread irregularities. Yet, his political machine has roared back to life, consolidating support across the Southern Region, while making notable inroads in Central districts long considered MCP strongholds.
MEC has confirmed that 4,689,172 Malawians voted on Tuesday, representing a 65.1% turnout. This is slightly lower than the 2020 election turnout of around 67%, but still demonstrates a keen public appetite for change amid disillusionment with the current administration.
The outstanding councils yet to be declared are Karonga, Nkhatabay, Kasungu, Mchinji, Dedza, Lilongwe District, Ntcheu, Mangochi District, Mangochi Municipal, Phalombe, Blantyre, and Chiradzulu. These areas will be critical in determining the final outcome, but based on existing tallies, analysts suggest Mutharika could seal victory even before all results are in.
Under the Constitution, MEC must announce the final results no later than 24 September 2025. But the political reality is already stark: Chakwera’s path to victory has narrowed to the point of impossibility, while Mutharika’s return to Kamuzu Palace looks all but assured.