ANALYSIS | When History Speaks: From Zambia 1991 to Malawi Today
In October 1991, Zambia experienced one of Africa’s most dramatic political transitions. Barely 90 days before the election, President Kenneth Kaunda (KK) appeared supremely confident. For 27 years, UNIP had ruled without challenge. Opposition voices were fragmented. The Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) was little more than a registered NGO — a loose coalition without a clear leader, a distinct identity, or meaningful national visibility.
The political terrain seemed predictable. On the opposition side were only a few notable figures: Arthur Wina, Sikota Wina, Humphrey Mulemba, Enoch Kavindele, General Christon Tembo, Brigadier General Godfrey Miyanda, Dr. Kawimbe, and Dr. Chongo. These were respected men, but none appeared capable of dislodging Kaunda’s grip on power.
Yet, in Ndola, a relatively unknown Copperbelt labour leader, Frederick Chiluba, was stirring something new. As a trade unionist, Chiluba spoke the language of ordinary struggles. He resonated with workers in the mines, markets, and factories. When he began addressing rallies, the mood shifted.
By October 31, Chiluba had done the unthinkable: he defeated Kaunda, swept the MMD into power, and became Zambia’s second president.
How did this happen? Strategy. One man in particular, Vernon Mwaanga — a seasoned political tactician from Luanshya — shaped the winning formula. He argued that only a Bemba candidate could consolidate the northern bloc and unseat Kaunda. The advice was controversial. Critics called it tribal opportunism; others dismissed it as cynical spin. But it worked. The bloc aligned behind Chiluba, and Kaunda’s 27-year dominance collapsed.
The lesson of 1991 is clear: when citizens desire change, they don’t always scrutinize every detail. They rally behind the force most capable of delivering it. For Zambians, the slogan “Bola Na Lesa, Bola Change” captured the national mood — the game had to change, and the people were ready.
Malawi’s Parallels Today
Fast forward to Malawi. If one asks why the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) often struggles to secure decisive numbers, the answer is straightforward. They overemphasize Peter Mutharika’s age. They lean too heavily on Central Region dominance. They focus on the crowded presidential race in the South. But they overlook a critical factor: the North.
In Malawi’s multiparty democracy, the North has consistently played a kingmaking role. At the centre of this is Enock Chihana — a political heavyweight whose alliances have repeatedly shaped national outcomes:
- 2014: Partnered with Dr. Joyce Banda, who carried the North strongly.
- 2019: Backed Saulos Chilima, who emerged as the region’s kingpin.
- 2020: Struck a deal with Dr. Lazarus Chakwera, who then swept the North and ascended to the presidency.
Each time, Chihana’s positioning tipped the balance. To ignore him — and the Northern bloc he represents — is to miscalculate.
The Broader Lesson
Both Zambia in 1991 and Malawi today teach us a common truth: politics is practical. It is not about wishful thinking or sentimental analysis. It is about alliances, strategy, and mobilizing people where it matters most.
Kaunda underestimated Chiluba because he judged the opposition only by personalities, not momentum. Similarly, the MCP risks underperforming if it assumes Central Region dominance or Southern fragmentation will be enough. Malawi’s political arithmetic demands inclusion, particularly of the North.
Ultimately, political success is never guaranteed by history, age, or regional pride. It rests on practical strategy — forging the right partnerships, reading the national mood correctly, and never dismissing so-called “small players.”
As history shows, when people want change, they will find their vehicle — whether in a trade unionist from Ndola in 1991 or a Northern alliance-builder in Malawi decades later.
I remain Aseleka — son of Arena, chisukulu cha Che Likwanya.
Heritage, strategy, and legacy remind us that politics is never theory; it is practice, lived in the struggles and victories of our people.
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