IPOR survey on Malawi elections show MCP biggest loser, DPP holds ‘narrow lead’ with UTM on the rise
Public opinion survey conducted by Malawi’s Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) indicates the Malawi May 21 2019 elections remains too close to call as the main opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is the biggest loser in the current political climate with the coming of new party UTM led by Vice President Saulos Chilima as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is holding a “narrow lead.”
The survey was conducted with support by Centre for Multiparty Democracy (CMD) was carried by University of Malawi professors Blessings Chinsinga, Boniface Dulani, Joseph Chunga and Mwayi Masumbu.
The pollsters said the survey looked at the several dimension of the political environment.
“The first objective was to assess what citizens think of the overall direction of the country. The second was to measure people’s views on the level of democracy and how it is perceived to be working as well as respect of people’s freedoms.
“The study further examined the level of trust in public institutions and leaders. Another objective was to explore the topography of political party support and people’s voting intentions to determine which party or candidates would win if the elections were held in August 2018, which might provide a mirror into the likely result of the actual elections in May 2019, holding all other factors constant. Lastly, we look forward to 2019 elections focusing on people’s anticipation of integrity of the elections,” IPOR said.
IPOR in a dispatch made available to Nyasa Times says it conducted a survey to gauge people’s views on the state of their country ahead of May 2019 presidential, parliamentary and local government elections in August and September 2018.
“A nationally representative sample of adult Malawians was drawn from a framework provided by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Data for the survey was captured on tablets running on Open Data Kit (ODK) and submitted directly to an IPOR server,” said the survey firm.
According to IPOR, DPP holds a narrow lead in terms of party identification with 33% ahead of MCP (31%) and UTM (17%) in terms of proportion of people who say they feel close to a political party.
“DPP is most dominant in the South (52%) seconded by UDF (18%). MCP leads the Centre (52%) followed by DPP and UTM (both at 16%). The North is highly contested with UTM at 29%, DPP at 28% and MCP at 18%,” reads the survey report.
In terms of residence of respondents, MCP holds a slight lead over DPP in rural areas (34% to 32%) with UTM coming distant third (14%). Urbanites’ supports is toward DPP (33%) closely followed by UTM (31%) then MCP and UDF (14% each), the survey firm said.
“Across all age groups, DPP and MCP closely contest for the pole position. UTM’s support is stronger amount younger respondents but it is still below that of MCP and DPP,” it said.
The opinion survey report said if elections were held at the time of the survey, the DPP and MCP candidates were effectively in a statistical tie at 27% and 24% respectively.
“UTM was in third place at 16%, followed by the UDF and PP candidates at 6% and 5% respectively. It is important to note that 11% ‘refused to answer’ and another 11% indicated that they didn’t know who they would vote for.
“Like the pattern in party support DPP leads the South (43%), MCP holds the Centre (45%) and UTM is ahead in the North (24%,” reads the report.
IPOR said the picture is significantly mirrored when it comes to parliamentary and local government voting intentions for parliamentary elections DPP would scoop 27% to MCP’s 24% and UTM’s 10%. In councillors, 26% indicated they would vote for DPP candidates, 22% for MCP and 10% for UTM.
The pollsters state that a clear majority of Malawians (78%) say the country is going in the “wrong direction”. It said an equally high proportion (79%) rated the overall economic condition of the country as “fairly bad/very bad”.
“A significant number (42%) expressed a pessimistic view that the economy is likely to be ‘much worse/worse’ compared to 29% of who felt it will be ‘Better/much better’ in the next 12 months,” reads the evidence-based analysis of the country’s political landscape.
The survey also established that over 6 in 10 respondents were of the view that corruption has increased over the past year while 14% said it has decreased.
The survey firm also established that most important national problems Malawians face are food shortage (18%), management of the economy (16%), and poverty or destitution (7%) topped the list of critical challenges that Malawians expect the government to address.
About 75% of Malawians rated government’s performance in dealing with their priority problems as bad, the pollster said.
Zomba-based IPOR is an independent, nonpartisan research project that measures the social, political, and economic atmosphere in Africa.
It explained that its methodology that the data collection was done by administering a questionnaire to a nationally representative sample of Malawians.
“The sample size for the survey was 1,200, which was informed by the goal of balancing the collection of nationally representative data with keeping the overall costs of data collection at affordable levels,” IPOR said in its dispatch.
It said the sample size enabled the pollsters to understand the public’s perception and attitudes in the country only at regional and national levels.
“In order to get to this sample size, we employed a systematic random selection of participants who were of voting age respecting a gender quota. The distribution of the sample was proportional to the population size. This helped to produce results that were representative, reliable and generalizable to the whole population,” the firm said/
IPOR also released a Local Governance Performance Index (LGPI) focusing on education and healthcare service delivery.
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UTM was only a few weeks old when this survey was conducted, the numbers are encouraging
There is only one person in the world who understands the meaning of opinion poll: Hillary Clinton.
People are you taking into consideraion the time factor here? DPP and MCP had their strong holds at the time this survey was conducted. UTM was just a baby a few days old. but the survey puts them as a big contender competing against strong established parties. At the time of the survey they had only launched at Masintha and they hadn’t been to the north yet where they took lead. Imagine where they would be now after launching in Mlakho belt? UNDERESTIMATE UTM AT YOUR OWN PERRIL
muzimuhuza chilungamo ndalayo wakula kwambiri kapena samangotuma Kondwani nankumwa nde aziwina ndichani ndala wokalamba ngati ameneyo
this is a government sponsored programe simunate muziwaso moviti atatengedwa
musandi nyasepo ndi ma survy anuwo opanda ntchitoyo mabodza bwerani kumudzi kwanthu mukave zomwe akuklukamba anthu DPP palibe yemwe akuyifuna
mukuona ngati ufumu ma cadet inu kuti DPP izingowina munya 2019 chilima atawina boma
Chilima is working hard to ensure DPP wins again next year. That is why he is happy to split the opposition vote. Next time he tells you he cares about Malawi, tell him the truth: that he is a sorry DPP messenger sent on the political scene to ensure most Malawians continue suffering under DPP.
MCP WILL TAKE IT…… DPP IS SUFFERING TOO MUCH
Vuto lanu MCP kutukwana, kunyoza zipani zina, kunyoza anthu a Mulungu, kunyoza a mai. nkuona Mulungu akukulangani, simuzawina ntaaa
This was done a few weeks wen UTM was launched. Know that figures can be manipulated to suit the intentions of funders of the survey
DON’T FOOL YOURSELF MY FREIND….. MCP WILL CARRY THE DAY
MUKUNAMA MCP WILL WIN WEATHER YOU WANT OR NOT COME 2019 MCP WAKUSANJIKA
Make no mistake MCP is carrying the day….the more utm eats mtl region the more mcp wins..
Another
EVEN BY JUST LOOKING AT THE FACE OF DULANI ….THE SO CALLED RESEARCHER YOU CAN CLEARLY READ DANGEROUS LEVELS OF CORRUPTION.
Kikikiki I aiaiaiai koma abale mumadziwa kunyoza
MALAWI SURVEYS ARE NOT TRUSTWORTHY TOO MUCH CORRUPTION….
Utm was sent to eat mcp votes in north…..
This is why they hv a husband in dpp a wife in utm….many of them….so that they can jump from dpp or utm akaluza
True reflection of our politics. ..utm doesn’t have well structured monitors on the ground. ..eg aerial committee. ..
What i do not understand is the survey say 78% say the Government is going into wrong direction; The same people say DPP is leading; Meaning Malawians like a leader who make the country to go in the wrong direction; IF SO Malawians are stupid and slaves;
A DULANI MUSASOKONEZE ANTHU MITU ASIYENI ANTHU AKUONA OKHA MOMWE ZITHU ZIKUYENDELA MU DZIKO MUNO
I am non partisan. Let’s be realistic. UTM has only been on the scene for 4 months and yet featuring and in the running with parties that are over 10 yrs old. That’s a great achievement. What will the next 4 months bring? As for UDF…very sad.
Those of you celebrating i don’t know if you have analysed the figures and appreciate what it really means
National vote DPP 33 MCP 31 = 2
Regional DPP 52 MCP 52=0
Rural DPP 32 MCP 34 -2
Northern DPP 28 MCP 18 = 10
N/Elections DPP 27- MCP 24=3
Election Rgn DPP 43/S MCP 45/C
The only significant vote is that of northern region. With these statistics I don’t know why one can confidently say MCP is the biggest loser. Too early to call
There is no question that DPP will certainly win the 2019 elections albeit with a small margin. If indeed MCP and UTM are serious about changing Malawi’s fortunes then its high time they (Chakwera, Chilima and even Joyce) throw away their egos out of the window and forge an alliance against the formidable DPP/UDF alliance. None of the opposition parties can defeat DPP with all its resources and govt machinery at its disposal. The survey might not be accurate but is directionally correct.
Dulani ndi anzawo anawatsekelapo ma office after publish a survey which showed that DPP was not popular. This time around they want to redeem themselves and be in good books with DPP. You trust this survey at your own risk. Those who were sent in the field to collect data I know most of them and their political inclination.
Makosana a IPOR ndi omwr ajatu a AFrobaromwtrr..musakane.ndi mmene ziliri basi..inholimnikirani..koma buto ndi lotinso mapesi azilala nde Ena abwerera Ku DPP nde ifikatu 2% UTM..
I think the author is really not interested in conveying the truth. There is nothing in this submission that shows that MCP is the greatest loser. If anything MCP odds appear from the data to be up from 2014. The differences in percent between MCP and DPP or Peter and Chakwera are now narrower than they were in 2014 and one cannot justify the statement that mcp is the greatest loser. UTM will definitely come a distance third no matter what, but this cannot per se imply that the few votes it will gain will be from MCP. To say this would be to imply that MCP has ever led DPP by 10 percent points , which is not the case. I really feel so bad when reporters show so much ignorance in their pursuit for partisanship
As it stands, MCP or DPP can win . It is like a coin toss. Mr Chilima even if he were to combine with PP and UDF would never win as their combination would be one such that 1+1+1 than DPP , UDF
But if no combination, MCP can still win just as DPP can still win. But for sure PP , or UTM will vanish forever in the absence of unions
Obviously, it’s too soon to make a call in the horse race, but it’s the challenge of the leading Parties, DPP and MCP to now shift to higher gears.
No question, these are the two big timbers in the forest.
We keep telling UTM they don’t have enough time in this game. Ndipo achina Chilima AKUCHEPA.
Eeeee UTM !!!Tikutayamikileni kamba mwayamba pomphano ukuyikani pa mulingo wazipani zopikisana kwambiri. Moto buuu pitani mumamizi nthawi yidakalipo takunyadilani
But according to data presentation I don’t see the data tallying with the conclusion for example 78% of the people feel the country is going the wrong direction. The same report says DPP to win. How? The 22% satisfied will make DPP win? This is an organized propaganda. Trust you me. The heading is not balancing with content.
MCP coming third in North?
Was PP not even mentioned by any of respondents?
This is a result when people entirely depend on Excel for data analysis. Excel fails to perform some analysis of other parameters that are also crucial in an election. Dulani, train your guys in other more sophisticated statistics packages for better analysis. Otherwise with the limited knowledge you have, you’re doing a good job
1200 people basi? Surely that cant be accurate?
statistically that’s a significant fiqure if truly picked at random
Kkkkk,,,,dulani ndi anzakowo akutumani a dpp?ma by elections last year mu October how many seats went to your DPP? Shame to you,,,,
Sorry, popeza anthu mudazolowera ndale zamzigawo. This time 2019, it will a shocker!!
you will be surprised my friend.
Although not all the results of this study are true, still they tally with whatever is mostly happening on the ground. In fact, some of us have always been saying that DPP will win again and UTM will come at a distant third after the MCP. Nothing new much in the study results.
1. It is true that UTM party is mostly supported in the north and by some sections in the cities.
2. No matter what may, UTM can never defeat MCP or let alone the strongest party on Malawian soil, the DPP.
3. MCP and DPP have their strongholds intact and they lead in these strongholds with higher percentages unlike UTM in the north where MCP and DPP also have their great shares.
5. The coming in of UTM is a curse to MCP and a blessing in disguise to DPP who are winning again the next elections. Thanks to UTM for snatching the most important vote from MCP.
UTM is a blessing in disguise for DPP? Even the DPP dont believe that!!!
DPP has a chance of winning. It’s not surprising that MCP is the biggest laser.
Eish,another setback for UTM
This data must be at least three months old. My guess is that UTM has made enormous progress over those months,
umbuli inu. you are the fools who will make DPP win because you keep telling chilima that he can win when he cannot given the time etc
To bring udf in the picture is a mistake done by the fake surveyors. Udf should be in the range of 1%-8%. The party is dead. As for UTM it’s too early and we don’t know the composition of its executive. These are lies as we approach elections.
SLEEPLESS DPP !!!
DPP IS LOSING ALL BY ELECTIONS AND HERE YOU ARE # CONFUSING THE VOTERS IN ELECTIONS !
Only MCP People are the ones that don’t know that UTM has made the obsolute. Instead of making strategies to counter UTM moves, you are busy saying UTM is from DPP a thing everyone knows. It’s like kupita pa bottle store nkumawauza anthu ndinu ochimwa! 😂
Some facts on the overall message are not were presented. Check the statistics once more before writting.
Zinazi kumavomereza basi kikikiki
This is not a true reflection of what is on the ground. DPP sponsored survey. MCP have more supporters in the north than UTM and DPP. There were the survies cheated PP. We will wait for Afrobarrometer survey. Analysing this survey with objectivity one will be tempted to think that MCP is forming the government next year.
So, what are you gonna do if the Afrobarrometer survey say the same thing?
We trust AFROBAROMETER NOT THESE UNKNOWN SO CALLED IPOR, HOW CAN THE SAME PEOPLE SAY DPP IS THE MOST CORRUPT AT THE SAME TIME SAY THEY CAN VOTE FOR THE SAME DPP? Keep on cheating yourself? You will get disapointed.
Apatu mukuoneka kuti mwapsa mtima kikikiki zomwezi za survey zi?
And how is MCP the biggest loser? It looks like it as made bigger gains
I also think so. There is an improvement. Unfortunately it’s not enough to take them into government. I am really surprised because these results show that UTM is really a true nothing when it is compared to either MCP or DPP based on these results. So I wonder who is a loser here? UTM or MCP?
A Gulani, we know you are DPP..Your self imposed results are a cheap propaganda. Campaign has not yet started. Wait and do the propaganda letter. Tallying your results doesnt even add up..you say UTM is rising yet has volts only from north which is also in manority.. ingodyani ndalama za DPP
In denial now? Hahaha ok I will tell a G(D)ulani wodi kuti should do the propaganda “letter”. I guess their point is that UTM is rising because it is not as old as MCP, DPP, PP, UDF and the rest of the parties. It’s the newest party in town. But it seems it can grab position three. Isn’t that rising? Inu mumafuna rising should mean having more “volts” than MCP and DPP?
What is new is movementyo not the pipo inside………with all that pomp one could think utm is way above…what will utm gain if they lose these general elections…….