‘No 2nd round’ in Malawi tight presidential election: Afrobarometer survey shows regional preferences persist

Governance expert has said if Afrobarometer survey is anything to go by, the forthcoming fresh presidential election will not have a second round in an expected tight race between incumbent President Peter Mutharika and his main challenger Lazarus Chakwera and that a majority will be obtained to avoid run-off.

Mutharika (L) and Chakwera: Two horse race

 

For the first time, a presidential candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a run-off.

Makhumbo Munthali, who is also a member of the Political Scientists Association of Malawi, told Nyasa Times on Friday that with  interpretation of “majority” in the presidential election to mean 50 percent-plus-one vote  not just more votes and only two key parties and one presidential pretender who can get less than 1% there will be a majority elected winner.

“In fact. There will be no second round,” he observed.

Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) confirmed three candidates for the fresh presidential election, namely President  Mutharika of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and United Democratic Front (UDF) Alliance;  Chakwera of Malawi Congress Party (MCP), who is leading the Tonse Alliance with eight other political parties.

The other candidate is Mbakuwaku Movement for Development (MMD) president Peter Kuwani who amassed 20 369 votes in the disputed May 21 2019 Tripartite Elections.

Afrobarometer, non-partisan pan-African research network, in its analysis dated May 20 2020 titled Malawians’ Voting Intentions Point to a Closely Contested Presidential Election, says Chakwera of MCP would poll 44 percent because of the Tonse Alliance against 34 percent for the DPP-UDF Alliance.

In the survey, the report shows Malawians’ voting intentions continued to show strong regional patterns.

The DPP led in the populous Southern Region with 59 percent support while the MCP predominated in the Central Region with 55 percent of the respondents while the North was more heavily contested with MCP 46 percent approval followed by UTM Party at 32 percent and DPP on third position with 14 percent.

In his analysis, governance commentator Munthali told Nyasa Times: “ Mindful of possible changing political dynamics following the alliances, going through the Afrabarometer findings and subsequent analysis one clearly sees that the MCP-UTM alliance has more chances of winning the fresh election as compared to DPP-UDF alliance. “

He pointed out that DPP and MCP have clearly shown to be a neck to neck competition as of December 2019.

However, he said it is the value that their alliance partners are adding which will make the difference.

“It is a fact that UDF popularity has significantly decreased, and I would predict UDF not adding more than 4% to DPP-UDF alliance. This is partly the fact that those in UDF stronghold Eastern region had indicated to vote for DPP. In other words, by the time DPP was getting into an alliance with UDF it had already swallowed UDF.

“So I don’t expect much value addition from UDF to the alliance. However, on the other hand while UTM popularity has slightly decreased from 15% (according to the last IPOR study) to 12%, but looking at the areas where UTM boasts of some dominance it would be difficult to see such percentage opting not to vote for MCP-UTM alliance. If anything, the UTM would be adding at least 12% to MCP-UTM alliance, in this case helping the Tonse alliance win.”

In terms of predictions of who will win the election, Munthali said UTM is adding more value to MCP-UTM alliance as compared to UDF doing the same to DPP.

“I would give DPP-UDF alliance a range of 37%- 47% while the MCP-UTM alliance a range of 53% to 63%,” he said.

About 22 percent of the respondents did not declare a voting intention or said they would not vote, according to the survey.

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Joloza
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Afrobarometer poll results were as follow: DPP: 32.3% MCP:31.7% UTM: 12% I don’t know where 44% given to opposition is coming from. You can’t just add 31.7 for MCP to 12% for UTM to come up with a total figure for opposition. That is not applicable in true and unbiased survey. All those you have done that including your biased political commentators don’t know how a survey is carried out. If you think I am wrong challenge me. In addition to the that be advised that the survey was carried out last year in November before parties teamed up. The… Read more »

Tiyeseni Phiri
Guest
Tiyeseni Phiri

Poor and biased analysis. You think in terms of regions and you think the mood that existed before May 19 2019 will be maintained. What of the defections from UTM to DPP? Wishful thinking! too bad!

Pachalo
Guest
Pachalo

Reminder: Malawis population is 45% South, 43% Central and 12% North. UDF + DPP represents South only and Tonse alliance is Central and North. Musovenge!!
No sane Northerner would vote for DPP a party that advanced the Quota system against the North and whose leaders have made disparaging remarks against Northerners and have always said they dont needbthe Northern votes!
Lero mutifine anthu a ku mpoto? Muona nyekhwe!!

M'Malawi Weniweni
Guest
M'Malawi Weniweni

Is it not the MCP that introduced quota system? And wasn’t the MCP the party that deported Northerner-teachers from to their homes? Wasn’t the same MCP that ubducted Orton Chirwa to die in prison? And what development did MCP give to Northerners, beyond the main road?

Anzelu ndi Anzelu
Guest
Anzelu ndi Anzelu

DPP usually fares better in elections where its considered an underdog just like in 2014. There was widespread voter apathy in DPP/UDF strongholds and this time around many are voting. However, despite our preferences, we all love Malawi, let us not get too polarized in our thinking and start butchering each other for nothing.

Joni
Guest
Joni

Anakuberani SKC kaya….tikudziwatu……

angoni
Guest
angoni

Zinawoneka chomwechodi mu 2014 chifikwa choti panali za chinyengo zambiri. That time MCP won the elections.

Goliati
Guest
Goliati

Whatever happens guys we need to do as follows. Vote in the morning and afternoon. Come back in large number after voting to wait for vote count until the winner at that particular polling centre is announced. Malawians should know that the work of the presiding officer at the polling centre is to certify the results. We need to know who has won at our centres and be assured that what has been announced is what will be transferred to the results sheet. Only then that will we should be assured of functional democracy.

angoni
Guest
angoni

Zoona man. We need to safe guard our votes.
Asapatsidweso mpata. Awone nyenkwe basi

DPP Handed Back To UDF
Guest

This is not dpp. It is now UDF. The cadets are changing to the nptprious Young Democrats. Peter is too old to finish the term. Madeya is Nankhumwa. There is no chance for Nankhumwa to lead the party. Peter has reached a human life span which is 75 years these days.

Soso
Guest
Soso

Komatu nkhope zamaPresident awiriwa zandikumbutsa ku Primary xkul mau osutsana….. NYASA =KONGOLA

Gama
Guest
Gama

Have you ever seen Chakwera’s wife. Amabisidwatu. Kang’wing’wi weniweni.

Joni
Guest
Joni

Anzanu ali kunjatu kukanika kubwera chifukwa cha Corona…..ndiye tipange compare ndi Getrude atavala gown kkkkk Ndiye tidzathere kuma VP kkkkkkk mkazi wa Atupele ndi wa SKC….mayi mayi mayi kkkkk

Komanso, tisayiwale kuti Atupele ndi mwana wa HULE chifukwa mayi ake anagwidwa ali pachisembwere ndi BODYGUARD wa Bakili Muluzi……..ukudziwa zimenezi koma??

Mwana
Guest
Mwana

Kodi azimayi wa mukuwakhumbila Mmmm zalowelanso Kuti izi abale kukula ndi mwambo kulokuti enatu apa same like our parents

Mwana
Guest
Mwana

She’s so beautiful 😍❤️ and happily married with son’s and daughters including granys

Mwana
Guest
Mwana

Kkkkkkkkk izinso ndiye ziti tione yanuyo to be judged too kkkk

Guest
Guest
Guest

I think these predictions are quite correct but I think it’s not recommended to come at this time, Peter Muntharika zimupatsa mantha kwabasi, munthu uja nde wachikulire nde kuti aziva izi, eshii not good I guess kk

Felix Mwambo
Guest
Felix Mwambo

Muthrakia will win 2020 elections and abdicate on health grounds to allow Atupele to become the president.

SMM II
Guest

If you have ben observing what has been happening in our country, Everything has been going against the president, This not because any one in opposition was clever but because has been Malawians to bring change in Malawi. I don’t think and I don’t believe DPP will win. Even the interim president himself knows that he can’t win.

Joni
Guest
Joni

….that is why he has gone into hiding kkkkk

Mina
Guest
Mina

Aaah awanso win win wachani ndi 2010 uyu malawi anasukusula . Zachisoni dzanja lalemba khoma.

Martin
Guest
Martin

That prediction of (37>47% / 53>63%) in favour of mcp-utm is obvious, it’s only the arrogance, or with a little respect we can say, “hope against hope” that makes dpp leaders and supporters to think they can win this one. Honestly, if dpp really was a winning material then it couldn’t depend on the underhand of Ansah to make it to 38% against the victim who managed 35%. Muntharika brothers were never meant to be leaders but lady lucky was on their side, thanks to Mluzi who forced Bingu on us and if it wasn’t for Bingu and the billions… Read more »

Joni
Guest
Joni

Ndipotu….paja akalowa m’boma moberanso …samalizanso second 5yrs term kkkkkkk

Kazipita
Guest
Kazipita

Ma null and void votes awasiya kuti?

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