Opinion: How Afrobarometer misses facts about political realities on the ground

Using the recent by-election held in Karonga, our political expert Joshua Mweneko, uses how MCP and DPP have been faring in Karonga since 2014 and questions how Afrobarometer generate its facts.

While AfroBarometer reserves the right of generating its own opinion on the landscape and feed the population with that, the Malawi Barometer herein presents a quick reality check on the spheres of elections.

DATA RECORDS

Data, below, is presented without prejudice and emotions, with focus between MCP and DPP for the purposes of scaling their relative popularity growth or decline. The said data has been retrieved from the Malawi Electoral Commission website.

PERFORMANCE IN 2014 (IN TERMS OF PERCENTAGES)

1. KAPORO WARD

DPP: 38.55%

MCP: 10.43%

2. CHILANGA WARD

DPP: 27.28%

MCP: 19.37%

3. RUKURU WARD

DPP: 38.47%

MCP: 11.18%

PERFORMANCE IN 2019 (IN TERMS OF PERCENTAGES)

1. KAPORO WARD

DPP: 25.49%

MCP: 7.2%

2. CHILANGA WARD

DPP: 42.94%

MCP: 35.64%

3. RUKURU WARD

DPP: 22.98%

MCP: 15.04%

PERFORMANCE IN 2024 BY-ELECTIONS (IN TERMS OF PERCENTAGES)

1. KAPORO WARD

DPP: 16.1%

MCP: 42.1%

2. CHILANGA WARD

DPP: 12.0%

MCP: 37.8%

3. RUKURU WARD

DPP: 18.5%

MCP: 32.2%

Observation

In relation to KAPORO WARD, the DPP’s data shows a decline of 22.45% from 2014 data and a decline of 9.39% from 2019 data. On the other hand, the same data shows MCP’s growth of 31.67% from the 2014 data and a growth of 34.9% from the 2019 data.

In relation to CHILANGA WARD, the DPP’s data shows a decline of 15.28% from 2014 data and another decline of 30.94% from the 2019 data. On the other hand, the same data shows MCP’s growth of 18.43% from the 2014 data and another growth of 2.16% from the 2019 data.

In relation to RUKURU WARD, the DPP’s data shows a decline of 19.97% from the 2014 data and another decline of 4.48% from the 2019 data. On the other hand, the same data shows MCP’s growth of 21.02% from the 2014 data and another growth of 17.16% from the 2019 data.

Commentary

It is now, now, a circumstantial fact, as inferred from the given sets of primary facts above, that DPP is a party cruising horribly and nicely on its downward path to political extinction and oblivion.

The trend can further be upheld as circumstantial evidence that DPP did not only manipulate the Presidential Election figures during the disputed 2019 election, but also extended its fraud activities to the other strata of the general election thereof (i.e. both the Local Government and the Parliamentary Elections).

Without any fraud in its favour and without any fraud in favour of any side, the DPP appears to stand no chance whatsoever in asserting electoral victory of any kind at any level (including the Presidential level). This can be inferred from the several by-elections outcomes, including at Parliamentary level, that have implicated DPP as a perfect loser.

Conclusion

AfroBarometer may wish to re-interpret the data in a manner that would augment its bold statement of claim that Malawians (and I believe it refers to Facebook accounts) do not want the ruling MCP. In that interpretation, evidence might be necessary to support any inference that the ones who have voted the MCP candidates to victory are non-Malawians of known or unknown different nationality/nationalities.

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