Opposition of egos: How Chakwera, Chilima and JB are campaigning for Mutharika’s win
If you hate the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as I do and you have tears, lets prepare to shed floods of them right after May 19 Tri-partite Elections because Jane Ansah, Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) Chair, will neither declare Lazarus Chakwera nor Saulos Chilima Malawi’s next president. Not even Joyce Banda or Atupele Muluzi will be announced that fateful day. She will only announce the re-election of His Excellency Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika.
You don’t like it? You better prepare so that, when that day come, you should never hide your shame by concurring with the lying opposition leaders who will accuse Ansa of having worked with DPP to rig elections.
Alright, let’s get down to the facts.
DPP continues to be unpopular with each passing day. Despite the smatter of unfinished roads projects and, of course, Mutharika’s generally sober governing, there isn’t anything tangible one can, actually, get convinced to re-elect this thieving and thuggish and tribalistic party. They deserve the boot, honestly.
However, DPP is not going anywhere because of one reason: We have a case of a united force of few fighting a disjointed army of many. The few that passionately love DPP are united and unshaken while the majority that hate DPP are in fragments and shaken.
Just look around.
DPP’s main source of its strength, as a party, is in its unfathomable tribal loyalty of the Lhomwe belt—the populous districts of Thyolo, Mulanje, Chiradzulo, Phalombe and the best part of Zomba.
Despite breakaways of stalwarts such as Patricia Kaliati, the Lhomwe belt remains an enclave of DPP—a base which no party can, presumably, claim more than 2 percent of all casted votes.
Because of this, DPP, unlike any other party, is going to the May 19 polls from a point of strength. All DPP needs now, which I am certain they are doing fine, is to claim additional votes from Shire Valley, Eastern Region, Central Region and the Northern Region. With the First-Past-The-Post electoral, trust me, there is no party, against what I have said there, which can triumph over DPP.
Look at the opposition.
We have four main political parties in the opposition which are all relatively strong. United Democratic Front (UDF) is still a major force in selective areas of the populous Mangochi, Machinga and Balaka districts. However, the Muluzi family party cannot claim, the way DPP would do with Lhomwe belt, complete ownership of the Eastern Region. DPP is also a force in some parts in this region; so too is Joyce Banda—especially in Zomba and Machinga.
We used to think of the Central Region—especially hardcore-Chewa districts of Dowa, Ntchisi, Mchinji, Lilongwe rural and Dedza—as MCP’s enclave. Not anymore—if voting patterns in the past two elections are anything to go by. We have seen DPP encroaching these districts and getting considerable votes. It will happen again.
Now with Chilima vigorously shooting in the dark, the battle for Central Region’s swing districts of Ntcheu, Nkhota Kota, Salima and Kasungu has just got more interesting. We have more players in the game of scramble.
None, of all major political parties, can claim complete control the urban vote, Northern Region and Shire Valley. Just as Central Region’s swing districts, the said areas are all up for the grab. All the major four parties—DPP, UTM, MCP and PP—has the capacity to pull considerable votes. You can Mwanza district to the equation.
What emerges from this is that DPP, riding on its unshaken base of the Lhomwe belt, has the shrewdness to, one, protect and guard its base and, two, to get additional votes, considerably so, from everywhere in the country. If you, further, add the advantage of using state resources to the equation, you know that DPP is on set. Unlike DPP, no other party is going to May 19 polls with such an advantage.
Unpredictable UTM and the shaken MCP will tussle hard in the Central Region as DPP bags home some votes. PP and UDF will tear each other apart in the Eastern Region while DPP steals some. UTM, DPP and MCP will share the urban vote. The North and the Shire Valley is up for the grab. Such a background doesn’t favor any other party apart from DPP.
The only way to stop DPP is for the opposition to form a united force. Actually, there is hardly any ideological difference among these opposition parties. They are all campaigning on similar things.
The only thing that keeps them away from each other is nothing but apparent egos of those leading these parties. Everyone, in their fragmented majority, wants to become a President—even Joyce Banda and Atupele Muluzi.
Well, unless their egos recede, which in unlikely, don’t expect any party from the opposition to carry May 19 home. Never. In fact, with its shrewdness, DPP will work tirelessly to keep these parties away from each other. Its DPP’s only winning strategy.
Congratulations DPP for the upcoming re-election.
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stupid and greedy politicians. why cant you unite and fight this stupid DPP. you have to put poor malawians at heart. do you think all of you can be frontline leaders. STUPID. we need to kick out this stupid DPP
Election fever! The re-election of APM and his DPP is a foregone conclusion. People will go to the polls as a formality as far as the presidential race is concerned. As for Parliamentary and Local Council races, we might receive more new faces than has been the case in the previous elections: Wobwerera ku parliament ndi mzwanya!
It is secondary what intention the writer had, but the he is right!
Imagine, in the end we have to stay with APM, winning with around 20% of the total votes, for another 5 years?!-
This is written by a DPP sympathiser, we know you. DPP will never rule this country again come rain or sunshine.
This is the dream of the writer not what exactly is on the ground. The thing is DPP supporters are living in denial and think that people are still sleeping like during UDF time. Sorry my brother people have moved on.
Looking at the analysis below, one cannot but pray that Malawi should work hard to improve its educational institutions.
Vuto ndi amai JB game ana pinyolisa okha 2014 analibe plan B anayamba kuganiza za plan B game italowa mma penalty…olo zitavuta maka DPP sikupeleka game kwa wina kuwina by any means kuyendetsa boma nkokoma
Then I will start my fasting for the incumbent to die
Why not start fasting for yourself to die.
kkkkkkkk that is why ndimadana ndi anthu opemphera, ndi afiti, ankhwizi komanso kuweruza mosayenera. Zoona iwe kusala kudya kwako ndi mamphero ako onse, ukapemphe kuti mtsogoleri wadziko afe? Well you might not like him to a point that you’d wish for his death but know one thing my brother che nnungu, you are not God and your wishes are not of God’s. Kukanakhala kuti anthu oyipa mitima ngati inu zomwe mumapempha zimayankhidwa pano atamwalira kalekale. Anyway i’m not surprised though christians believe in their church teachings some call it church manual and also in Bible that says things that suits them. by the way the Bible all of it is not the word of God, only few books about five in the bible are words of God. I am not surprised that some people just woke up and start church under the umbrella of christianity, most of these churches they skip the real books in the bible that is true words of God. I can see that che nnungu belongs to one of those churches. shame on you, Mutharika isn’t going anywhere unless its his time and only then, he will die.
The only way to oust DPP was to form a strong opposition alliance,no single opposition party can oust DPP.
Thats very true..DPP is going nowhere if tje opposotion doesn’t unite
Let me begin with party primaries , in the past elections people were choosing MPs base on the party and regional lines . And for sure everyone knows kuti some party were not even feature there candidates in some districs because kumakhala ku base kwa ma party ena unless if they just want to finish they candidates money . But this time the game has changed that’s why you’re seeing big names loosing the primaries . So this year people will vote based on merit not party which he belong to . So the party which will have the average votes in all the districs will win the elections . That’s why you’re seeing big clouds of people in all the party meeting’s , the reason is that people want to make good choices based on your manifestals komaso akutha kusiyanitsa bodza . So can’t predict these elections , it’s so hard
Malawi walero anachangamuka ndipo anasintha. Ask Dr JB (amayi) Malawians are objective, What failed JB will fail DDP (cash gate now corruption) even by the president himself 145 mata.We know where to go and try. These others Saulo are the demons of DDP in this game to detract the weakens. My survey showed that 60% of those gone to camp B are frustrated who voted for Dpp 2014. 30% are from other parties and the remaining 10% are new.
For the sake of kukonzanso dziko we do not need the alliances.The rothen will not be transformative. Let the one to win be responsible and discharge his plan without hindrance. Amene akufuna kuti driko likonzake should vote wisely but if not, let it be. It’s them who suffer or enjoy.
Whoever runs a great campaign, an issue based campaign, and has a well articulated vision for a better Malawi, will carry the day.
The article is a proper wind up written by a DPP stooge pretending to hate DPP. It’s aim is to steer up reaction and douse the steam of the opposition.
Politics is not a matter of principle but how good one can navigate through the layers to have their ideas believed and followed by others. Until the date 19 May is gone, there will be many surprises which even the writer of this article does not even know. The opposition is not stupid as the writer may believe to let DPP win.
No one wants DPP. Mark my words, the opposition is united to kick out DPP. What you read in the news or see in rallies does not reflect exactly what is happening underground. The opposition is strongly united contrary to this article.
The writer just forgot that, even if Chilima was still DPP, people were geared to oust it. Even with the United Mighty DPP and all the money plus government machinery they have, they lost 5-1 during the last nationwide by-elections. The writer forgot also to mention the majority that believe Chilima is a distraction to DPP and not independents. Just because of his failure to come open and fulfill the promises he made about revealing the nAmes of thieves in his government. It’s getting closer to May and he’s no longer mentioning them. THE MAJORITY THINKS UTM AND UDF ARE DELIBERATELY OUT THERE TO DISTIRB THE OPOSITION VOTE BUT IN THE UNDERGROUND, THEY ARE STILL ONE. As such, the dynamics of the the National sentiments against corruption isn’t just geared towards DPP alone, Chilima and Atupele are a part of it
DPP won’t win.
U r right all the commissioners were chosen by APM the likes of Banda, Mathanga a Lomwe, Jane Ansah herself was with late Bingu, they secretly meet him & threaten them to pull his DPP thru best is to unite & unite to bale Malawians.
First, it should be pointed out that hatred, even in politics, is not good for the soul; and it should not be encouraged.
Second, coalitions should not be encouraged: party leaders are ambitious – that’s why they are the leaders – and they have a right to want to be President. They should not abrogate their responsibilities and, in the process, betray their followers.
Third, perhaps a distinction should be made between the Presidential and Parliamentary elections; and the writer appears to be restricting his comments om the latter. No?
Then … Re. Party elections: Chiuta is smart here. To be sure, he’s not making a case for DPP here (in the game of scramble? or scrabble?). In his own stealthy way, he’s campaigning against DPP, even if his analysis is too strong to contradict the unintended consequences. But political games can be so unpredictable and it is not unreasonable to anticipate that DPP, as a Party, may not win a plurality of votes. Other parties can get enough votes, here and there, to deny one Party a majority in Parliament. We’ve seen this before.
And … Re. the Presidential vote: just as in the Parliamentary vote, one person may not get a plurality. But the map, incumbency and record and our “first past the post” system would suggest the current president would carry the day (if the elections were held this week). Perhaps to Chiuta’s chagrin too.
-APM is a cypher. Quiet; not taking himself too seriously (in politics anyway) and not wanting to be celebrated too much. He often shuns the lime light. And there is a reasonable record of economic performance, and civic goodwill and good governance (corruption being what it is, the public knows that no Party or President can eradicate the scourge overnight). Incumbents don’t actually win elections; rather the Opposition loses them. So far there is Presidential candidate that can win against APM, even with consideration for VP running mates.
– oChakwera is an open book, as his record in the Church shows all. He has demonstrated a good deal of political naivete since assuming the MCP mantle. And Malawians, except perhaps hard core oChewa, do not believe that he is leadership material. And he carries the atrocities albatross of MCP around his neck; Malawians will not yet forget and forgive.
– Muluzi is also an open book, but he’s saddled or wiehed down by his father’s legacy of unchecked theft and corruption. A name is everything in politics, so often.
– Chilima is really an enigma. Apparently, he’s willing to make his genealogy, even an authentic sketch of it, a secret. Malawians are not putting up with that. To be fair, the man has had not much time in this race. His followers think he’s charismatic, but he’s not articulate (as clearly demonstrated in that famous BBC HARDtalk interview with Zaina Badawi – that was a killer!!! The man is not versatile enough as a politician; and he talks nonsense anybody can see thru as unrealistic and/or plain lies.
He thought running for President would be a cake walk, but he’ll be in for a surprise of his life. Back to selling ma units after May, baasi.
– Joisi Banda: Nothing worth to write here about her as presidential material. Has demonstrated an extreme degree of incompetence to the nth degree, in the past.
Good analysis I agree solely.
DPP might be popular but they have a weak candidate in APM.Within few months SKC is more popular than APM .This is not good for DPP . MCP is a regional party and 5 consecutive losses speaks volume on why they might never rule Malawi again. The DPP can win more MPs and lose the presidency. Campaign strategy for Chilima is bearing more positive results.DPP and MCP underestimated the potency of UTM . Chilima has shaken the political ground and with support across the country he has a big chance to win the presidency.
That’s day dreaming Jack. That type of easy change of ruling party happens in western countries but rarely happen in Africa, let alone Southern Africa. Ask your colleagues, opposition parties is RSA, Lesotho, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Angola, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda. Which country has changed? I can as well add DRC where the winner was imposed by the Joseph Kabira. And you are dreaming that a different thing will happen in Malawi contrary to the trend? What stupidity. Keep on dreaming my brother. Ukhala choncho zaka nkumatha.
My brother, your examples are quite true, but that what must cause you and I to get worried with undemocratic africa, this is not that you can be proud of, is the main cause of political tension and unending civil wars which is continuing puling us back as a continent to develop
its very unfortunate how you have skipped Zambia in your list of countries, how you can show that you know nothing about DRC, its very unfortunate that a big person like you living in 2019 with a 1950 thinking. kunali Micheal Sata uku.
Don’t you ever say SKC has support across the country….
Hahahaha you can take it or leave it guys, it’s up to you, koma uyu wakuuzani. You can as well start composing “Atibera volume 6”. Paja chosamva, chidamva nkhwangwa ili m’mutu.
Very true
The thought of Mutharika winning makes me lose appetite.
Hahahaha ingomwani tameki man, chifukwatu what you are fearing most is slowly becoming a reality.
It’s maloto a Juman Kaunda to think that utm is a threat to MCP in the centre. Just forget it. What can utm point to have done in Malawi apart from breaking away from Alamu Pumani Mwakalamba. It doesn’t matter whether parties united or not. The voters must unite against dpp and choose Chakwera basi. As long as we get rid of the selfish violent thieves Malawi will be safe. Eliminate the hazardous dpp. Please don’t contain the thieves. We can start afresh with someone apart from dpp in 2024. Dpp yawopsa.
If you think Chakwera is strong why are suggesting that opposition join hands with MCP?
Ofcoz DPP got this in the bag…..what do you expect with greedy opposition leaders
You are very right… I agree with you. Then they will go nilly willy atibera mavoti which votes? DPP will carry the day atleast from the presidency point of view
Good analysis hence only unity in opposition can upset DPP. The only hurdle is egos & shared values. Patriotism should be the backbone of unity. Dr Lazarus, Chilima, JB have different visions &
moral conviction on how to lead & that’s the puzzle to navigate. It’s oil & water can’t mix unless the elements are refined with common goals.
This analysis is not far from the truth,the problem we have now is greedy leaders
I agree with this assessment. The opposition is too fragmented and needs to unite, if the DPP is to be ousted in May.
Iweyo ndiye umatha aise,that’s exactly what is on the ground,Dpp will win
DPP can not win you people. Do you really think people with their five senses should wake up on May 21 and vote for the 80 year old thief, no Malawians no. Let’s be united and vote for Dr. Chakwera the only charismatic leader God has put in front of us Malawians.
As it stands, people have stopped putting their focus on APM’s age, rather they are looking at the potential he has to make it come maythis May
Wongani Chiuta you are the man! Bravo my boy!
Good observation indeed. It just requires Lazarus and JB to kickstart the alliance then the rest will follow. Not even UTM will stand the heat of isolation if MCP and PP plus other small parties team up. Please opposition leaders, sober up and throw away your egos.
All the parties you have mentioned except for UTM camapaign alone in 2014. but DPP managed to win. What is the difference now? Parties don’t just make alliances for the sake of elections. The author is a DPP supportr though he wants to pretend to be objective.
The difference is that this time around DPP has already lost Ntcheu, Chakwawa, Nsanje, Mangochi, Central Region vote, Northern Region vote. I can’t see any breathing space for them. Infact they will be lucky to win a single parliamentary seat in the Central Region.
Mmmmm check your facts once more ochewa..
facts already checked
Sounds intelligent, but not convincing. I say so because the author of this article is not familiar with the political dynamics of Malawi. People in in this country change the course of voting when they are fed up with a particular party, not necessarily the reasons given in the article. Even the most advantaged party can flop. Malawians are united when they want to kick out a government. The way I see things now it is too late to have a coalition, after all the Chilumphas, the Nnensas and the like are in a coalition already – how many coalitions shall we have? If they begin coalition talks now they will waste time while DPP is cruizing with the campaign. Let it be the way it is but each party should a good fighting strategy. Kupambaba nkhondo sikuchuluka kwa asilikali, koma kudziwa maponyedwe a zipolopolo.
Tinene kuti chani ? inenso ndikamati DPP is winning this coming election nkhani yake ndimanena imeneyi .My friend thank you very much you have a good knowledge to anaylse things .Mumayitha man. Our opposition is full of arrogant leaders who have there personal interests at heart not this country.
Even before finishing reading the discourse l can 100% agree with the author. If the oposition camp had humbled themselves and team up as one DPP could have been conquered. Koma without that DPP is staying in govt.
I agree with you 100%. I hate DPP but I have already conceded to my friends that they have won thanks to greedy Chakwera and Chilima. I believe that JB is smart enough to know that she cannot win and all she is doing is to look for a better deal for her party. Even with elections months away Chakwera announced that Mia is gonna be his running-mate. What a clueless leader.
I can not object to that, obviously it will happen like that. our opposition is letting us down, why not join hands
In your freaken dream the author.
No re-election for DPP, tired of being mistreated as if we are all ignorant.
My constituency won’t vote for DPP.
Hate it or take but that’s a reality.
So you think just because your constituency will not vote for DPP then DPP wont be re-elected? What kind of reasoning is that???? kuganiza mopepela uku
missing the point. ythe author is only advising how opposition can do it. opposition isayendele zoti kanga ndi wamba ndithu tizalila this may kuti dpp yawina. it will not mean anything if you say am tired and arrogant of the dpp government. the only way kwa inu osusa is to consider the advice
Luckily vote ndiyachinsinsi bro just get your own tameck ready coz you will need it after may 21 with that kind of thinking
This fantasy that despite the coming of utm, and the inroads made into the south by mcp the DPP still has an unshaken loyal base is ridiculous.
Where do you think UTM supporters came from?
UTM has never tested general elections which support are you talking about? Dont you know that people do attend political rallies for different reasons.
Congratulations are in order indeed!……an analysis with sober mind
It does not matter….,the author being DPP affiliated….,but a fact is a fact..DPP is going into government again.
Kkkkkk
Wongani Chiuta umaitha. Umaionera patatli. That’s the way to analyze the situation . Ndichoncho kumene
Thanks for sharing with us your oinion. We are all entilted to our opinions.
It sounds so true. The reason is simple: Our opposition is not united and they don’t have a collective agenda to remove DPP-led Govt from power. Everyone from opposition wants presidency. No individual political party in Malawi without entering into alliances can oust DPP from govt. Forget it. Get united and work for the common good otherwise, from May, 2019 onwards DPP will still be in power. Intelligent analysis
I strongly appreciate the author of this post and this is a timely wake up call to major opposition parties before next week. They have to swallow their pride and join their efforts to kick out DPP, otherwise Malawians will cry for them.