Tonse should underestimate Atupele’s campaign crusades at their own peril
From a distance, the combined figures of Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and UTM—judged from last year’s botched elections, looks all pretty to Tonse Alliance.
If you add Saulos Klaus Chilima and Lazarus Chakwera’s votes and compare them with President Peter Mutharika and Atupele Muluzi, the likely prediction is that Tonse Alliance is forming the next government.
But UTM vice president Micheal Usi remarks in Mangochi rally on Sunday can corrobate my standpoint that those are just figures and, perhaps you forgot, figures don’t have life, they don’t have feelings.
It is people who have life and feelings—to mean, people can change and that is where the problem starts.
The winner in the elections ahead of us will be decided, principally, by the alliance team that woos more swing voters to its fold than others.
This, in my opinion, is where I think DPP/UDF Alliance is being deftly strategic by front lining their running mate Atupele Muluzi.
Truth be told, Atupele greatest political challenge is his accident of birth—Bakili Muluzi’s son.
On his own, without his father’s alleged political sins, Atupele has, over the years till now, practiced politics of civility and, at a personal level, he is humble, approachable. There is absolutely nothing terrible and irritating about him.
That is a political capital he carries, across the country, in selling the embattled and grossly boring Mutharika.
Look here, Atupele is attracting thousands wherever he goes. It is not, of course, that all those that attend his rallies will vote for him; however, the great gatherings are making him audible and visible to so many voters—and some of them are swing voters.
In the past two weeks, Atupele has been crisscrossing the northern region and, truth be told, his wave has been quite immense.
The Northern Region is quite an important block in this election because, since the death of Chakufwa Chihana and Aford, it has never been a home of any political party.
Simply, the Northern Region is a swing block that whoever gets a larger share in it, will increase their chances of winning.
During the last botched elections, much of the region’s vote went to UTM for one simple fact: Chilima was not DPP, was not MCP but spoke of abolishing quota system, building more universities in the area, collaborated with Livingstonia Synod, just to mention a few.
If you analyze the patterns of the Northern Region vote and, also, political behavior, you will note that the region has unforgettable historical scars and fresh reeling pains with MCP and DPP respectively.
The region, check your facts, doesn’t have serious issues with UDF, or, for all his worse, Bakili Muluzi.
Now look here.
There are some, and they are so many, that, even now, still can’t imagine voting for MCP. DPP used to have support from the north until Bingu wa Mutharika started a tribal war with the region. UDF has never had any.
Picture this.
Chilima has led his party to MCP and that, alone, is a serious draw back to conservatives in the region who, in whichever way, will never vote for MCP. Of some people don’t mind. At the same time, DPP has abolished the region’s most hated quota system and, evidently, more schools from the region have sent a number of students to the university.
So cleverly of DPP, they sent Atupele whose banner, UDF, doesn’t have so many issues with the region at the time when they have abolished quota system.
Interestingly, Atupele in the north has been the sober boy he has always been, always smiling, encouraging, giving hope and speaking about the future.
Arguably, UTM/DPP Alliance should brace for a giant crusade of the northern region vote to DPP/UDF Alliance.
It may not just be in the Northern Region. Any place with swing voters, be assured that people will swarm to listen to Atupele because he carries himself with quite an interesting level of sobriety that swing voters expect.
This is why Atupele must never be underestimated.
A day in politics, so they say, is longer.
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Palibe akuonjeza Atupele.DPPUDF will perform miserably in the north only 5 percent votes in the central 10 percent in the south 80 percent.caculate against voters.There is noway DPP U D F can do to win.
Give me a break !
cadet
honestly, there is something alluring about Atupele. Boy is not a kind of ine ndi ine kind of a person. Boy is straight and humble. look at him once and even twice.
Could be reason he lost in his own constituency then. People prefer real campaigners not the soft soft ones.
MCP UTM. kunali moto kuti bhuu chaka chatha kulubwa lubwa kuti chisankho tachiphula. Chaka chinonso simunalape mukupanganso zomwezo. Simuchiphula chisankho a Malawi ambiri akukanani zongofuna u President mpaka kumayambisa nkhondo kukhazikisa Msundwe Barracks chifukwa cha u President, Mtsogoleri Chilima kumawalimbikisa a Chimata kuti azigula ma LEGENI azigenda a PUMBWA kuthandauza kuti a Malawi okha okha azigendana ndi ma LEGENI kuphwanyilana a Katundu ndi a Mtambo ndi HRDC. A Malawi sitimafuna kutiyambanisa tikukananinso nthawi yovotela. Mbusa wanji wofuna kukhetsa mwazi chifukwa cha U President uzikalamulira mitembo? Chakwera munthu woyipa wololera kukhetsa mwazi wa a Malawi kuti iye akhale President. Toto takana DPP UDF patsogolo inu okhetsa mwazi mwagwa nayo.
Tell Malawian what you are going to do for
them instead of just talking about Mcp.
People they need jobs,good life good health facilities.
Why DPP/UDF Alliance is facing heavy defeat in 2020 elections:
In which political region was turn out highest in 2019 elections? To make sense, Atupele must add value to DPP. It is correct that many UDF supporters have been rejuvenated. But how many of those did not vote last year and will vote this year?
Remember that DPP already “won” the eastern region where UDF used to command large following. The fact that the Southern and Eastern regions had highest turn out last year means that even if all UDF dormant supporters wake up to vote for DPP this year, the impact won’t be significant.
Now consider the central region. Almost 900000 registered voters did not vote. UDF strategists should look at how many of these are UDF supporters who did not vote for Atupele in 2019. That’s the only useful analysis to them.
Look at the North. UDF is completely dead there save for a few members who are UDF by birth. Key question: has DPP support increased, remained the same or decreased in the North? Recent Afrobarometer survey puts MCP at 42% , UTM comes second with DPP/UDF coming last with below 15%.
Now, let’s look at the figures from 2019 for proxy purposes:
Chakwera+Chilima=1.85m
Mutharika+Atupele=2.1m
Difference of at least 700000.
How many votes did Chilima get from northern and central regions? How many of these will now switch to DPP? How many votes did Chilima get from the South and Eastern Regions? How many will now switch to Mutharika? Considering that the central region had lowest turn out last year, what will happen if they show up this year, considering the east and South already showed up last year, making DPP/UDF alliance of little value? What about the North also showing up?
The only option that remained for DPP was to register kids. With that in tatters, they now fear elections. They are facing a heavy defeat. And Mutharika may be replaced as a candidate for fear of embarrassment.
MCP/UTM landslide.
2019 votes should read:
Chakwera+Chilima=2.85m
Mutharika+Atupele=2.1m
This is how the crying starts in every election. Mcp always counting eggs as chickens before they are hatched. Dpp and udf started democracy and carried it forward. They know what they are doing. Last election Dpp didn’t have to work as had they only needed first past the post. This time it’s different that why they are campaigning everywhere
We had no presidential elections in 2019.
Figures cited above are for proxy purposes.
DPP would not be dodging elections if they were sure of victory.
DPP afraid of elections because their thieving options such as registering kids have been exposed.
DPP/UDF facing very heavy defeat in the upcoming elections.
It’s ok to DREAM.
you think people of the north are fools? Didn`t you hear the DPP district governor for Mzimba Akimu Mwanza saying at the rally there that Peter Muthalika is difficult to sell in Mzimba??? He said this in the presence of Region governor, Mulli and Grezeder.
Truth must be told..don’t cry fool that you did not read this article.this article means a lots.you might ignore or hate but the facts has been told here!!!!!!!
Ma Judge mwatukwanawo kuti Atumbuka chakuti alibe abale awo,. Commander Nundwe waku Hewe ku Rumphi uja munamuwonongela pension yake ku Army alibe abale ake ku Rumphi.
Atupele ndimaganizo ako a dyela pamozi ndi bambo wako Bakili Muluzi ndi kachemwali kako kambuli kachabe chabe ka MP FYNESS MUGONJWA muli ndimaganizo wopepela kwambiri.
Kupangila campaign a LOMWE womwe awonesha kuzikonda ndi dyela 14 years ali muboma yili ngati kumuwuza mkazi wosabeleka kuti ine ndekha ndikubelekela ana.
Whatever is being said here, are just people’s imaginations…. The truth remains that Tonse Alliance is winning confidently, people are not fools nowadays and they still remember all what they have gone through and why they are voting again twice in 2years that is becoz of someone’s negligence and stubbornness
Tha`ts the truth of the matter
This is very poor analysis, Atupele had been and is using dpp force strategies of paying and using money to the poor so they attend their rarries, their meetings(dpp and udf) are pseudo meetings that will backfire very soon. Mark my words dpp and udf alliance will face a heavy defeat in these coming elections.
Kaba and taxi etc were paid money in Mzuzu.
Wakutaya waka nyengo yawo awo aBakuli Maluzi. We people of the north will vote for the MCP/UTM alliance. Tingavotera wanthu wa sankho yayi. Period!!
Emotions, naivety, drunkenness, gluttonous, conceited behaviour, jealousy, bad-mouthing shall and will never go together with leadership traits. A good leader must sail together with the crowd he/she is trying to woo. If you regard yourself as being better than everyone else, then you have a problem. Respect/commendation is generated by the people, unfortunately Chilima enforces that by wearing a coat too big for him. You will all the time hear addressing himself as Ife….ife tidzakupatsani ntchito, ife tidzalamulira second term, ife tili ndi zotiyeneretsa kukhala president etc etc. moto uwo.
Walls have ears and people have the capacity to digest information intake it and analyse the same in order to make calculated decisions. If you go about under rating Malawians, that’s a grave mistake. Chilima has shown how greedy he is by going into an alliance with a party that has a dark and murky past. The arithmetic he came up with this other day in Kasungu, does not always work and indeed it won’t work this time too. That plus his uncensored speeches is massively putting off his would be followers who were on the fence. With his crude, emotional subjective attacks he is further distancing voters who might either completely not vote at all or decide to go and vote for the other side. Remember, no person is an island and as such Chilima can not be ‘A Master Of All Trades’. aMalawi anayamba kusamba ckokweza.
The author of this article gives me the impression that he is well informed about the prevailing events. Despite all this, it is difficult for me to understand there are people of his calibre who still believe in the pre-1993 MCP deliberately, or perhaps ignorantly, ignoring we are in multiparty democracy.
MCP/UTM Alliance is real and, using his own words, anyone ignoring this do so at their own peril.
This is wishful thinking. The North is not a sleepy region. We suffered under Bakili regime more than any other regime. Don’t forget that when the North says “NO” it’s “NO” no matter what. Just wait, 23rd June is only 14 days from today and see what the North is known for. If you talk about quota system as something to entice us to vote for DPP/UDF, you are only a DPP/UDF sympathizer. How many projects were started in the North 5 years ago but have been completed? My friend, don’t irritate us. Go vote for them but forget about North Korea. We are united and stolidly behind UTMCP Tonse Alliance.
Kodi chubu chopopa Wekha, chingakuvute kuphwetsa? Zoona? Apm knows exactly how to step on the Tambala wakuda’s neck and this UTM mkaladi.
Mike! You just stated that North does not have problems with Bakili, are you for real?
You mentioned that North has issues with MCP and DPP.
Also you said Chilima’s setback its joing MCP and what Atupele’s setback? Atupele too has joined DPP yomweyo wati people from north has problems.
DPP and UDF are busy giving out money this is why you see Northerners going there and it doesn’t mean votela DPP and UDF.
Ndinu zauchitsiru bwana mukulemba nkhami moputsa…mind you 99.9% ameme amawerenga nyasatimes are smart people you cant manipulate them with your DPP and UDF love .
Koma Fiko ndiwe Chindere Chakufikapo
I agree
Tonse alliance shud work around the clock in order to square out this dpp
I somewhat concur with the writer on his remark on the ‘generational personality deficit’ tag (which is hereditary) and is none of Atupele’s fault. If the proverb that says “LIKE FATHER LIKE SON” is anything to go by, then yeah! this ‘accident by birth’ as you bwana Fiko put it, is truly the ‘Red Sea’ for which Atupele will certainly need divine intervention if he has to cross it successfully at all. Worsening the situation for Atupele is the fact that he is campaigning for and on behalf of an interim President that has lost respect and trust for the Judiciary and ‘Rule of Law’ which means Atu will still need double divine intervention to cross The River Jordan and then face the Jericho Walls ( restoration of respect and trust for the rule of law) which is a daunting task.Good luck!
Truth be told, the North has more issues with UDF than DPP. For people who have followed Malawian politics from 1994 will agree with me. AFORD lost its grip in the North for associating with Bakili who had been previously referred to as Munkhungu by Chakufwa and that hasn’t changed. Remember it was the North, Karonga in particular that clothed a pig with a UDF t-shirt as Muluzi was to address a rally there? I witnessed Muluzi being stoned at Euthini. In short, the North has never been in support of UDF but at some point, it declared itself as the home of DPP.
UTMCP,WE’RE LIKE HORSES,WE’RE RUNNING OUR RACE,ATUPELE IS PROMISING PEOPLE LAPTOPS AND FREE DATA,WHILST UTMCP WE’RE PROMISING PEOPLE CHEAP FERTILIZER AND AFFORDABLE AND CHEAP HOUSING,
NDE SITINGAYANG’ANE ZA ATU IFE TIKUPANGA ZATHU,OVOTA NDIONWE ADZAPANGE JUDGE,KUTI TIKUFUNA MA LAPTOP KAPENA FERTILIZER.
Atupele can drive this country to Britain or Germany even China. He is quiet a good guy very humble. Since he started campaining he has never fooledat anybody in opposition he is busy maintaining on manifesto unlike chilima yoooo always talking rubbish. You cant tell people in nkhata bay that dpp has done nothing while they could see the road from mzuzu to nkhata bay now they cruse for just 30min.
I don’t see any logic in what you have presented. …just tell me that you a fun of Atupere..Malawi is just too big for ATU..this time we need People who can deliver and also intelligent
Perhaps the best article you have ever written. Atupele is the wild card
Olo. CHILIMA NDI CHAKWERA ATASIYA CAMPAIGN SANGAWINE
It doesn’t matter whether he got 200,000, what matter is now when those who voted for utm cannot all vote for MCP for obvious reasons and some cannot vote for DPP for their own reasons too. Remember what happened to Joyce Banda even her own son Roy lost in her own home ground cause she joined MCP. Swing votes will come from those and those who ere undecided. Chulukechulike ngwanjuchi yako ndiyomwe yakuluma. The whole thing will be revealed after elections.
MIke Fiko, did you see the crowds by Commander of the marginalized Timothy Mtambo, MCP Vice President Harry Mkandawire and former state Vice President Khumbo Kachali at Mzimba Boma yesterday? Lest you have forgotten, the over 100 thousand votes for SKC in Mzimba are intact and will go to the cool and God fearing Dr Chakwera as endorsed by Livingstonia and Nkhoma Synods of CCAP. Roman Catholics did the same. How do you expect people of the Northern Region to vote for the inactive, tired Polofesa Muthalika. Muthalika/Muluzi political dynasty is unacceptable in Northern Region.
Thats it Chechamba. Mzimba was filled to capacity by Mtamba yesterday the crowd that was far much more than Atupere`s crowd that were being picked in trucks and promised money
Mr Fiko I really admire the way you write and analyse personalities honestly I give you a credit! Atupele is exactly as you have explained no objection whatsoever. APM gets the vite!
The writer should know that this is a cock and bull story as he knows that Atupele performed poorly in the north in the 2019 botched elections and he cannot suddenly become a darling of the people overnight. The trip to the north was a waste of resources if truth be told.
I totally agree. I am one of those people who has found myself swayed by Atupele and liking him more and more. I never liked his father Bakili Muluzi at all. But Atupele has got me – he comes across as ordinary, humble, calm, intelligent. He engages with people and listens. He appears to me a safe pair of hands who has the capability to unify this country and develop it. Chilima has too much self-importance, he talks too much and his tone is very rude and threatening. Atupele is EXCELLENT in every way.
Even a dog would win against Atupele and APM.
.Changing the hated quota systems after 50 + 1 majority will never automatically change the mind of Northern Region literate voters because they are analytical so they will know that the those behind the change are not the DPP mafias but rather Chilima and Chakweras who fought for the 50 + 1 majority.
When Goodah Gondwe was an influential DPP Minister, Mzimba voters gave Chilima 161,000 votes and APM came third after Chakwera.
Results cannot change for better now that APM is 80 years old. Results cannot change now that people of Rumphi and Mzimba know that their son in laws are much closer to the statehouse power than last year.You mean people of Rumphi don’t want a tarmac road up to the home of their daughter as APM did in Balaka??????????
MCP gave the speakers position to Catherine Gotani Hara( daughter of Ekwendeni but married to Gotani Mkandawire of Mpherembe in Mzimba) after last year’s elections while APM and his DPP reserved it for Mcheka Chilenje of Nsanje.
Cash distribution and four bands can bring loafing people to rallies but changing the voters minds is like climbing Mulanje Mountain difficult. Remnding people of Mombera University, Mzuzu Airport, Rumphi , Nyika Chitipa Roads, Edingeni Roads which have stalled for five years plus as Atupele did cannot bring APM votes now.The reduced fertilizer price of MK4,495, increase the zero tax band to MK100,000, reducing driving and passport fees will bring TONSE additional votes from the literate Northern Region voters.
He is charismatic,why he lost a seat at his constituency? Feel ashamed of yourself
Ndipo inu aaaaa
Any sane person will nvr listen and vote for Atupele let alone APM fact,,,,,,,,
Mike fiko sometimes use your head not your bums when writing. The muluzu family story is a tainted one which cannot be cleaned. This boy went to uk to school but came back with a white lady who later run away. You can’t compare him to Chilima. Compare him to his father that’s the best . Start with both educational qualifications. Then both marital status. Osamangolemba thinking malawians are fools like you.
Where is the basis of your arguments? This is your opinion. And by reading the lines your udf. A good journalist must do research before parroting.
It seems you did not accompany hons Atupele up north for his campaigns. The boy had tough time. Another useless thing is that the Jappie, the Zomelas and the Grezedier carried supporters from all corners to boost the crowd. This gives a wrong picture. Write so that you should give NGC a recipe for thought. Are you aware that hons Atupele started distribution of food just to attract people? Come with me to last Sunday rally in Mangochi. Do you see udf getting more votes? Forget. May be Machinga. Atupele has a very tough time. Don’t you see it being awkward for a runningmate to tirelessly campaign for the president who is not there? How many days remaing before he comes out and convince voters? Is it alright for Dpp|UDF to campaign Instead of doing it. May be the best campaign could be doing the actual development or apologizing for failing to deliver.
clean politician
You guys who are talking about Atupele mwasowa zokamba eti. Muluzi brought tribalism in Malawi and we do not want to talk about Muluzi family again in this country no no. No Muthalika family anymore in this country no no finish those family parties zovekana zipewa. The writer of this article does not know North Korea wait you will know it pa ballot zikambani nthano zanuzo.
Tonse alliance izalira mokweza, kubangula
This is not the first time Atuple has been to the north, he is always welcomed there just as any other politician. But when it come to voting, I don’t think they will vote for DPP/UDF alliance. Of course its true that he should not be under estimated.
Ukunama tu iweee
He he he bingu used to win there big. Udf did too. We just need half the vote there
@James
Probably the author is expecting that people in the North should also be pelting stones and put tree logs across the road like DPP/UDF thugs in Eastern region.
Nanga anthu kukavotera mbwelela zoti ati “Chanco inatenga zaka 8 kumangidwa, late Imedi anali msilamu ngati Atupele opepela”
Mike Fiko, atupele anali ndi 200,000 votes . Pano ndikulemba pano, mavote amenewo atsika ndi 50,000 to be conservative. which means he will give DPP 150,000, a DPP atsika ndi 100,000, mbuya aja akuopa Covid. So panopa adzapeza 2,000,000 votes alliance ili ndi solid 2,7000,000. Palibe angachite awa. alemba mmadzi
Ukulembadi mmadzi niiweyooo.Udziwanso patsiku lokavota kkk.
Yes he had 200,000 but read between lines the arguments of the writer. Those who voted for utm cannot vote for MCP and those who voted Utm cannot vote for DPP for reason that are best known to them. This is where the swing votes comes from. Study politics, don’t just follow it.
You forget that there are some of us who were in UTM and swore never to vote for murderous MCP. No one, and even Chilima knows it, will convince us to vote for MCP.. it’s abomination to vote for MCP.
This is a lie take note figures have no life. I myself i have many friends who were UTM members but the fact that SKC has joined MCP and worst still a running mate they are flocking back to dpp/udf alliance. So dont think chilima has still 1,000,000 votes rather he has now about 400,000
Atupele is more charismatic than Chilima and has emotional intelligence which Chilima doesn’t have. People want some one who can give them hope and not someone who is good at castigating opponents. someday the nation will agree with you.
Useless, what hope Atupele is giving malawians?Cadet it is chilima and Chakwera who are really bringing hope to malawians.chilima has said fertilizer will be at K4495 that is hope, and Atupele has said fertilizer will be at K23000, what is that.It is better to use brain when you write your comment.
Atupere is a useless guy..he know nothing about economy though he claim to be legal practitioner
You must be talking about a different Atupele or you are a very poor analyst. Chilima is more charismatic and persuasive, a revolutionary. what has Atupele changed by being part of a corrupt Democratic Pangas Party?
Lol!
Mbuzi owe anakunamiza ndani zimenezo?
Emotional intelligence? What is that? How is it going to stop thieves from stealing in government coffers. If you are looking for someone with emotional intelligence, I am looking for someone with a business unusual attitude. Someone of Magufuli attitude, who will move in the office to see if people are working. Somebody with business experience.
That’s illogical….then you don’t know who chilima is…do you know what it takes for one to be a PHD holder????
Either you don’t know the meaning of being charismatic or you are just any useless cadet…
Foseki
Atupele has not worked anywhere and also failed rather dropped out of University when he was in UK
Wrong …
Which people? Don’t speak for everyone. Besides, do you know the meaning of charismatic? What you are writing for me is all wishful thinking and your opinion. So Malawi being a free country, your opinions are all welcome.
Why ambiri otsutsa pakhala pa fb amati zazii here they vote down the comments. Give ur input to the story than always attack what others has said.
Ka mtima kakhwidzi sikapindula.we are all Malawians but timalephera pamodzi that’s timadikira kufuna kuona Malawi akutukuka than help Malawi atukuke .we all need to be part of every activities nationally
very very true
It seems to me the writer does not know people from the region. Most people are very educated and are very civil. They want to listen to you even if they have already made up their minds. How many Mps does MCP have in the North and how many Mps does UDF have in the North. Do you remember what happened in the North when Bakili had stolen votes for Chakuwamba of MCP? People rioted and anything to do with UDF was targeted. People forget quickly. People in the North can even form a committee for a Part they will never vote for. They will get the T shirts and zitenje for all parties which visit them. Even cash they will receive. But when they decide no one can change their mind. The writer has very little knowledge of those people. Unless it is a strategy to steal votes from the region then it may be true.
It is God who will save Malawi from its peril. God has heard us. Muluzu and Mutharika blood shall never rule Malawi again. Forget it! It is not about personalities behind the campaign, it is about what God is doing! So what is God doing? Just wait and see.