It is a Chakwera-Mia candidacy in Malawi 2019 polls: Writing clear on the wall
Malawi Congress Party (MCP) president Dr Lazarus Chakwera—who is also leader of opposition in Parliament—is considered a self-centred political maverick by some quarters. A cleric throughout his adult life, joined frontline politics and was elected president of the MCP in 2013, succeeding longtime MCP leader, John Tembo, now in retirement.
Chakwera’s vice is Richard Msowoya who was also elected VP of the party at the national convention in 2013. They contested in the 2014 presidential elections as presidential and vice-presidential candidate, respectively, and lost to incumbent President Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika.
Malawians go to elections again next year, 2019. It is becoming increasingly clear now that Chakwera and Msowoya will not be partners again next year. Chakwera has his eyes set on Lower Shire politician and business tycoon, Sidik Muhammed Mia, to become his party vice president and ultimately his running mate in next year’s presidential elections.
Chakwera has stepped up his desire to partner Mia at the expense of the elected MCP VP and Speaker of Parliament, Msowoya. Chakwera and Mia have recently made frequent public appearances together in a sure show of solidarity with each other.
They have shared the podium in the north, centre and southern region, includIng addressing a joint political rally at Lunzu in Blantyre, attended a Church service in Limbe and an MCP fundraising dinner dance in the city of Blantyre. In all this, there has been no show for Msowoya, which means Chakwera has made up his mind to end his political ‘love affair’ with his elected vice.
MCP will hold its national convention in a matter of weeks to elect office-bearers. So, Mia may not be an automatic VP for the party because he faces challenge from others, including Msowoya at the convention. Whether or not Mia becomes MCP VP, the writing is already clearly on the wall; it is a Chakwera-Mia candidacy in 2019.
Political risks
Without delving much into MCP’s internal affairs, it is still worth noting that Chakwera’s decision to completely sideline Msowoya is an enormous risky course of action, politically. As president of the party, he ought to be a unifying figure than be seen to favour certain individuals ahead of a crucial national convention and ultimately, tripartite elections in 2019.
Against his own party’s cornerstones of unity, loyalty, discipline and obedience, Chakwera has arbitrary ‘handpicked’ Mia for his running-mate in the presidential elections. Conventional wisdom may suggest that while Mia is Chakwera’s personal preference, the Reverend should have allowed a consultative, democratic, free and fair process to take place. Openly alienating Msowoya and other perceived Msowoya followers will rip the party apart.
MCP is now obviously seized with some enormous leadership challenge. From his utterances that come few and far between, Msowoya seems he does not consider himself a lame-duck. He will not exit his space easily but will certainly put up a strong fight against his alienation. Should he lose his party position, he may attempt to throw a spanner in the Chakwera and Mia works ahead of the presidential elections.
Msowoya is well-versed with MCP politics. He is experienced too. He has served as a member of Parliament (MP) for many years. He also has been a Cabinet minister. Msowoya, therefore, has his own following; a political constituency in his own right. The likely scenario is that with Msowoya sidelined, MCP will go to the national elections next year a divided party.
Indeed, the arrival on the scene of Mia has brought about some fair amount of confidence among Chakwera faithful, hoping to garner the southern region votes. But other quarters within the party think that Mia’s presence is recipe for disaster for the party because he is considered by many as a rank outsider and only ‘buying’ his way into the MCP leadership ranks to achieve his own personal ambitions.
If Mia succeeds and becomes Chakwera’s running-mate, it will be a repeat of the 2009 when MCP presidential candidate, John Tembo, ‘handpicked’ Brown Mpinganjira of the defunct National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as his running-mate, sidelining Msowoya, who was widely tipped to partner Tembo.
Tembo’s political thinking that time was that choosing a running-mate from the densely populated southern region would win them many votes and ultimately deal a fatal blow to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate, the late Professor Bingu wa Mutharika candidate who also came from the south and all from Lhomwe belt. But Tembo and Mpinganjira lost the elections to Mutharika who won with a landslide. DPP also won a strong parliamentary majority.
Chakwera and his MCP cohorts are caught up in the 2009 ‘Tembo-Mpinganjira web’. They reckon that roping in Mia on the basis that he hails from the southern region would win them the much-needed southern region votes. It may be a fatal political miscalculation if the Tembo-Mpinganjira equation is anything to by.
Suffice to note that Mpinganjira is arguably and comparatively better politician than Mia. The latter, therefore, may not bring about the much sought after difference in 2019. Chakwera and his cohorts may be using a faulty political calculator on Mia and the southern region vote.
It depends on how Chakwera plays his cards and numbers.
Malawians’ hunger for change does not necessarily mean that they will pick anybody professing to be that change agent.
Chakwera, if he wants to ride on the change mantra and ‘new politics’, must earn his place by demonstrating that he embodies that change.
The political momentum maybe on MCP’s side right now but one wrong move—that usually comes with presumptuousness, misjudgement of the electorate, scandal and careless statements, can easily turn momentum into nightmare. Only time will tell.
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Santana, let me try to answer some of ur questions:
1. MCP lost due to rigging – like it or not, DPP under Peter rigged. U may refuse tbis fa t but God knows it pretty well
2. MCP lost in 2014 cos Msowoya failed to amass enough votes for Chakwera from the north, thus he failed to match the likes of Harry Mkandawire and Khumbo Kachale in political stamina
3. MCP lost cos JZU AND Gwanda Chakuamba divided the MCP vote due to their greed and differences
To me Msowoya is not the best partner to pair with Chakwera in 2019, and this fact you know pretty well. Msowoya is a weaker partner compared to Mia. The good this MCP has on board the likes of Maurice Munthali and Harry Mkandawire who have high chances to bring Chakwera more numbers than Msowoya, so tbia shud be a better consolation for MCP and a bad omen for DPP
Honestly speaking, for the first time MCP has the best pair. Jelasi siumuna ayi.
And DPP will do whatever it takes to discredit or break this pair, whether thru legal battles or use of money hungry nkholokolos.
By the way of u are not MCP what worry about MCP. The best the DPP can do is to celebrate if indeed the Chakwera/Mia pair is a bad pair cos that is a plus to DPP
@Watematema
You seem too immature with political games. If Msowoya abandones MCP and stand as an Independent MP and at the same time campaign for another presidential candidate other than that of MCP, will that not be a political loss to MCP in Msowoya’s area? The problem with MCP is that they are too blind to see these daily defections from the party. Instead of maintaining the 2014 numbers and struggle to add more before 2019 elections the party is blindly opening the door not for some to enter but for more to exit. Even Mia’s help from the Lower shire will achieve nothing because the party has lost much through defections. Look at Kasungu. It is no longer the same as it was in 2014. The most paining thing is that most of these defections are joining DPP, THE ARCH-RIVAL OF MCP. The divisions and defections from PP has much benefited DPP than MCP. As we go to the elections MCP is the most bruised party so far. They should stop dreaming of a win in 2019. Yes Watematema, the landscape is not the same because it has changed badly for MCP.
I will be asking the same question till Chakwera and Maunits answer me: What was making MCP to lose all the five elections in the past? After giving us the reasons you should as well give us what solutions are there to make you win the 2019 elections. Otherwise you are just good at singing the same song in every election. If you say ”don’t talk about the past”, is 2014 the past? The MCP does not know why it has been losing the five elections yet it is confident to win the coming one. You can convince your stupy supporters but not some of us. Get into elections just to have a formal seat of leader of opposition. It is this seat that fits MCP not any other. Nanga kulephera five years wosadzidabwa bwanji? Who is Mia compared to Chakwamba who failed despite being the torch bearer in MCP? Lower shire is not united as it was during Gwanda’s time so banking on Mia is just political masturbation.
The analysis of the writer shows how unexperienced is he politically. The landscape is not what he is portraying. In politics it is not as rigid as it is being put. What matters is politics is not how big is the political clout one presented last year but what one is today relative to other forces. Msowoya is no longer steamy politically as he used to be three years ago. His current status as speaker seems to allign him closer to Government- a situation which makes his masters suspicious and betrayally unpopular. This force of status quo pulls down his popularity in the MCP camp. Secondly, political popularity, apart from ones experience in politics depends on the ability to bring cash to support party structures and operations. This is what Mia is ding to this seemly cash strapped once might party MCP! My only advice to Chakwera is he must do his calculations rights because the ruling party might take advantage of his moves and impose strategic budding on his structures! By the way budding is an agricultural term where two trees of different genetic makeup are joined. For example yo might have a mango stump budded to a lemon trunk. The mango truck (EMUCIPI) will be busy sourcing water underground at the advantage of the lemon (DIMPIMPI)!!!!!!!!
Heheheheh! Mwaonona Nkhanga mawanga mukutaya
Nkhwali. Let us wait and see if the formula will work. Anyone who desert the altar of God can not be trusted by him. Chakwera’s grace and anointing was for the altar to feed the sheep, to feed the lamb and tell them corruption is evil, not to put any offering from corruption money in the offering or tithes. But to change this grace and anointing to lead the nation, no it won’t work. Whether you like it or not , it will pain , but the truth set you free. Keeping on waiting.
The more you talk about Chakwera and Mia the more you are telling us to vote for them ,tizavoratu bravo magearbox enieni sizinazi
Things are nw in right truck,bravo chakwera n mia
1. The Chakwera/Msowoya combination has been tested before and failed in the last elections in 2014. The Chakwera/Mia combination has not been tested at all. Trump won in the US because people wanted a fresh breath of air.
2. Choice of the running mate is a prerogative of the presidential candidate. The fact that one is the vice president of the party does not automatically guarantee that they will be running mate.
3. The comparison between Mia and Mpinganjira is, in my opinion, comparing apples to lemons. The two politicians are miles apart in terms of what they have achieved politically and the following they command. Mpinganjira’s NDA had 200,000 votes countrywide, if my memory serves me right, when he contested against Muluzi. We just saw the Mia effect in the by-elections, which even the DPP is still reeling from its effects.
4. Despite Msowoya’s decision to shun MCP gatherings, it looks like his actions have not swayed the northern support for MCP that is there. The biggest barometer comes from the synod.
While I sympathise with Msowoya, I would say the Chakwera/Mia combination is better than the Chakwera/Msowoya one.
The Chakwera-Msowoya pair was tested and failed. Msowoya failed to bring the numbers.
What DPP wants is a weak team and the Chakwera- Mia pair is a nightmare
By the way, APM won with 400,000+ votes.
The Chakwera/Mia/Mkandawire combination will bring the much needed votes for an MCP victory against the thieves and riggers in 2019
AND YOU ARE SAYING MPINGANJIRA IS A BETTER POLITIAN THEN MIA?? MHHH, WHICH PART OF YOUR BODY DO YOU USE FOR THINKING/ REASONING?
It all depends on where your point of view is. The said differences will not affect the northern vote. Have you checked the behaviour of livingstonia synod on this issue? This is the block that supported msowoya when he formed his PDM but now they seem to be for CHAMI.(Chakwera Mia) There are several factors u needed to consider in ur topic. I could only ask Chakwera to bring khumbo kachali in his team. The north is incomplete minus khumbo. Msowoya can never join DPP. He will remain in MCP. Chakwera-Msowoya was a losing team so there is need for change.
What new strategy can MCP use to win votes apart from those used in the five elections which it failed. In every election you have been predicting a win but you have been goofing. What can make us believe you now? Go to convention and choose the next leader of opposition for this is the only political post which fits MCP.
I believe MCP ikadzawina udzasamuka kamba kokhumudwa. Ukonzekere kutero. You are failing to know that the political terrain are changing everyday. Why are you sticking to the same poor arguments?
Instead of worrying about the MCP strategy of winning, you should rather be worried about what new rigging technique you are going to use this time, but know that the walls are closing in and the loopholes sealed. Stop worrying about the MCP convention and start imagining what shit will hit the fan when it is time to choose who will partner Mapwiya. OUR SKC, atcheya and amayi all have serious ammunition against you fools!!! Be very afraid! Udzola gondolosi chaka chino sunati
Kodi kumeneko running mate ndiyani? hahahahahahahaha!!
Akutuma akupweteketsa. Leave Chakwera and Mia to go to state house 2019. We are ready for that and Malawi is ready for that.
Interestingly, the vocal supporters of Cahkwera are either on social media, on Zodiak and also make noise in courts to challenge injunctions. DPP’s votes are intact. DPP doesn’t share votes but eats other peoples’ votes. Come 2019 MCP will be shown what PP saw in 2014. Opakula ndi opakulilidwa wamkulu ndani?
Kodi ma byelections aja amavoteredwa pa social media ndi mma court eeti???? Oh oh ndikudabwatu
The article was as smooth as thelele (Okra) in the flow of the arguments, UNTIL the last paragraph: “The political momentum may be on MCP’s side right now …”
No way.
MCP, with all the infighting, backstabbing and even front stabbing that has been going for some time now renders the Party stasis.
I mean there is so much animosity between important Party officials: easy to count those “enemies’ on ten fingers and ten toes. And all of the enmity stems from oChakwera, basically from the may he makes decisions. Without semblance of democracy. His MO is beginning to stick because one is now hearing even villagers insinuating about oChakwera – the making of a dictator.
The history of the Party is an albatross around oChakwera’s neck. And Mia cannot deliver much in terms of voters from the South: Most Malawians in all regions are heavily cultural, and vote that way. Mia does not identify himself as Sena, or M’nyanja (he primarily identifies himself by religion). That lack of clear cultural affiliation will simply be his doom.
So oChakwera’s decision to partner with Mia (his big money can’t buy the South -anachenjera) will be regrettable in the end. Msowoya has served MCP well (maybe until recently – injunctions), and he’s a good man. And oChakwera is ignoring all the niceties and continues to take THE NORTH FOR GRANTED IN AS MUCH AS HE THINKS NORTHERNERS HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO SIDE WITH MCP. Marginalizing the North as usual.
The bottom line is MCP do not have momentum; all they have are controversies.
Perhaps, no single party has momentum so far. It’s better that way, as we have a year to go yet. You want momentum that is sustainable; not one that is likely to run out steam, because it can’t generate enough hot political smoke.
There is truth in this article. Munthuyu sanatumidwe ndi aliyense
Biased editorial!
Iwe wawonetseratu kuti akutuma a DPP. The writing is on the wall kuti ndiwe otumidwa as per ur article. Chakwera and Mia combination is the best ever. Wina alira 2019.
Msowoya would have emulated what Mia is doing in the South. He is going around in every district boosting the party and realizing aspiring candidates in readiness for 2019 general elections.
The political landscape has now completely changed. We are no longer in 1994 or 2013, we are in 2018 ready for 2019 elections and very much ready to vote for a new government led by the new Malawi Congress Party. Period! Mwaba kokwanira for 25 years now, it’s time for you DPP, UDF & PP to pack up and go. And go truly you will on 21st May 2019. Malawians have already made their democratic decision. Ignore this prediction at your own peril!
Your analysis is biased towards your political masters who butters your bread.
Firstly as MCP redies for a party convention anybody can aspire for anything hence the pairing of the two in a democratic establishment must not be mistaken.
Secondly, whoever may be picked as a running mate, the constitution stipulates that thus the prerogative of the torches bearer and this has nothing to do with party ranking. The case of the incumbent government is a vivid example.
So despite your right to a fair comment, don’t pretend as if you are a dumb person.
MCP is on the move
You can’t change people’s mind set.Chakwera ndi Mia is a good combination
I guess the observation & analysis is very very poor.
Was Soulosi Chilima chosen at the DPP convention to become Prof P Mutharika’s running mste🤷🏽♂️🤷🏽♂️
Wongani, if MCP candidate is to be elected as president of Malawi, such a person neither need to be well-versed with MCP politics, nor be experienced, nor have experience in serving as as a member of Parliament for many years nor have experience of being a Cabinet minister.
Popularity that can easily woo voters is what MCP candidate shall need in 2019! If we are to use alternate angle like this; If Msowoya miserably failed to woo in his own ward in his own area!, he can also miserably make the party loose votes beginning with/from his home area and what more with kwina?
Wongani you are either a friend, sympathizer, or nkholokolo and bent for nothing!! In short, to hell with your shallow article Wongani……………………………….!!
wadziwaliti iwe galu eveeybody knows or knew that the winning team for mcp is chakwera and mia zinazo zanu he u forgotten the 5-1 who was behind it
This is a useless article. The author must go back to school so that he should be able to analyse political situation correctly. Shame on you the author.
I think the one who wright this artical is absolutely DPP agent people we need to be very clear some of this people they are their to custgate opposition frame work. MCP as a party they ar well awere about all political tactics, I do not think ur more wise than this team, late me tell u that MCP will not tolerate anybody disrespect the party constitution because he is experience nor long tym member of the party no..! It’s tym now to see something different, when MCP lost last tym Msowoya was there..!! And now u say if he left out MCP w’l do nothing come 2019!? No no no.! Thank God coz Chakwera is very simple guy u can say rubbish today and apologise tomorrow ur wlcm. Any muzilemba khani kuti anthu asakuziweni mbari yomwe muli.
Better devil u know than the Angel u do not know. am not saying that Msowoya is nut wlcm no.! From my point of view he does god job to comeback if it is so. But he need to change his attitude coz ur under siege.
iwe ndi zoba. ..go to school then come back ,maybe you will write some sense not zachi baby ukulemba apazi. mbuzi iwe
Wongani, your Article seems to have some DPP Element in it. you are taking it as if Chakwera’s decision to pick Mia is a bad idea, on the contrary ,this will be the best Team ever . you cannot compare Mia who is a National Candidate to Brown Mpinganjiri and Richard Msowoya who are Constituancy Candidates, these two are just popular in their constituancies while Mia can actually be a Presidential candidate himself. if I were Msowoya I would just accept reality and join hands with the Party. its better to hold a high position in Government than being Speaker from Opposition.
intelligent analyst
MCP will be fooling itself if it thinks it can win votes by using the Lower shire numbers. It was once used by Gwanda who was then not a runningmate but the torch bearer. He failed in the presidential race despite winning all the Parliamentary seats in the Lower states. So banking on Mia for a win is just myopic for this party of death and darkness. Msowoya will not just sit phwiiii after the embarrassment. All these senior members have an ego that they can easily inflict a blow on Chakwera and his runningmate. Wait and see what will gradually be unfolding soon after the convention. Afterall the MCP is going to the convention to choose the next leader of opposition not state president.
Kkkkkkkkk! Wafuula mlhomwe! Basi chabwino Mia sapanganso nawo…..mupitilize kuba inuyo
Mwasowa zolemba apa. You are specifically looking at MCP forgetting the running mate issue in the other parties, for example who will be the running mate in UDF, DPP, PP? What is your interest in MCP. It shows that this party is gaining popularity by each passing day. Let MCP tackle its internal wrangles itself and wait until the convention is over.
On Msowoya, no one bars him to all these meetings you have mentioned, so you wanted Dr. Laz to sit back because Mr. Msowoya is not with him?
Ask MCP supporters, they will tell you that Msowoya was not chased but woipa athawa yekha.
Wait the truth will come in the near future to why all these things are happening. Somebody has a hand, mark my words.
I beg to differ with the writer. I guess he has opined and lacks depth. What if somebody stronger from the north other than Nsowoya join the MCP and ascend to highier post., and add the Mia factor. Secondly can the writer tell us why Nsowoya did not take part in the last by election campaigns or attend all these meetings. Does he have to be invited or wasn’t he? Nsowoya is being a pervert and failing to fight straight. His convictions are not any different from others that are or go in politics for themselves. How can he be deserving without a single sweat and yet would want to spoil it for the others if its not given to him by default. I think that what comes out of the article in defense of Nsowoya although I must submit that MCP has real problems. This guys have dug in
I lost trust and respect for Msowoya when he openly supported the divisions between Livingstonia and Nkhoma Synod by taking sides with his regional Synod. It simply showed what kind of a failed leader he is. I totally support his sidelining in the hierarchy of MCP. I even questioned the wisdom behind his pick as a running mate for Chakwera. MCP will not lose anything by sidelining him in the coming elections!!
We in the north cannot vote for Chakwera-Mia. We better vote for Peter.
MCP too does not like the North. Behold his MP said in Parliament about water projects in the north. The centre has $500m (just Lilongwe) water projects while the north water stand $20m.
And what did Chaponda and Peter say about the North?
Am from the north I will vote for MCP
Politics is about competition and numbers. Democracy is about choices. Comparing JZU-Mpinganjira and current era may ignore that the current situation is very different from then. My view is that MCP with Tembo leadership had huge mountains to overcome because of what we all know. I have a belief that many Malawians want something different and this cannot be from the same politicians who have been roaming around and plundering tax payers monies. Building a winning team requires choosing members you can work with . If you are not a member of that team just accept that it is not your time. There are a variety of ways to do things. Your abilities my not be useful for that team all the times. The error we make is to believe that others are not indispensable and the team may not win because of their absence. Why did the team fail to win then? Indeed time will tell. But risk-averts have not gone anywhere!!!!!!!!!!
With the theft by the DPP adminstration, the Tembo Msowoya scenario does not hold water and MCP remains the viable option no matter the political landscape. People want change.
Comment too biased for a professional news outlet
In short, the analysis being made in this article is very unrealistic!! The PESTEL situation then is not the same PESTEL now. Pano zanyanya hence Malawians want to see a change
So you think what is correct is your analysis that Malawians want to see change? What makes you think that your analysis is more correct than what we have been presented with?
Why are Malawians so obsessed with old and recycled politicians who have demonstrated over and over again that they can’t be trusted with leadership positions. It’s as if we don’t learn. It’s like Malawi has the most stupid, ignorant and sleepy people/voters in the whole world. How else can one explain this behavior that comes out every 5 voting years. Are we that paralyzed or on death wish. Anthuwa akutephela dziko la mkaka ndi uchi but we are still holding them in high esteem. #DzukaniAmalawi……….kunja kwacha!!!!
palibepo cha nzeru mwalembapo apo, mukawerengenso ma book a dalawin
All I can deduce from this write up is that it is coming from a DPP supporter.
oro muli inu ndimumene akupangira Msowoya ndi anzake mungati?
Malawi: the 2014 MCP failure was Chakwera/Msowoya. Chakwera had a bigger picture on the ballot paper than Msowoya, Therefore change the one who had a bigger picture because people did not like him. The analysis has a grain of truth. moreover, the vote difference between MCP/DPP during the so called by-election in Chikwawa was small that it does not deserve any praise. Comparing with National election is even worse.