Dzuka Malawi: Atupele, Chilima- 2019 is theirs to lose!

The campaign for State House 2019 has begun. Forget the official campaign period. If you want to win in 2019, as a councillor, member of parliament or tenant number one at Sanjika, this is the time to begin. Well Mohammed Sidik Mia has already started his campaign to be Vice President for the MCP.

Let’s do something political mathematics. President Peter Mutharika won with 1.9 million vote or 36.4 percent. Reverend Chakwera had around 1.45 million of 27 percent, Joyce Banda as sitting President only got 20.2 percent at 1.05 million and Atupele Muluzi with 717 thousand votes managed 13.6 percent. Only one research results had closer to these figures before elections.

I met one of the country’s shrewd researcher and analyst recently in my sojourns. I asked him, his answer was mathematics don’t like- they are facts and figures. Any alliance Reverend Chakwera decides- to pick Atupele or partner with Peoples Party, gets him to magic number of 40 percent. However, the same cannot be said about Democratic Progressive Party- it has been in Government and very likely it has lost urban areas where economic downturn always hits hard. The cost of living is gone high.

So the DPP should assume its popularity, which includes the promises that it made in 2014 is now around 30 percent. An alliance with a split UDF brings around 11 percent or more, but the central and northern region votes, plus the Lower Shire and urban centres like Blantyre, Zomba, Balaka and Mangochi which boosted its 2014 cant be relied upon.

In politics, unfortunately nobody wants to hear the truth. The truth is that Gwanda Chakuamba was the last political gladiator of the Lower Shire. He run on MCP ticket, won in the North, Centre and brought in MP’s in Chikwakwa and Nsanje- but was not enough to deny Bakili Muluzi, not once- but three times (yes including the Bingu 2004 elections) his stay at State House.

 

So the elections in 2019, if you discount Mia, whose biggest fight would be October 2017 bye-elections in Nsanje Lalanje, needs to learn to go out beyond Muslims and start having strategists that know politics and do not worship his money.  Reverend Lazarus Chakwera might have gotten himself a sponsor- but he is yet to get someone who can bring votes. Remove his money, Sidik Mia has no personal loyalty like Gwanda Chakuamba or John Tembo in MCP. He is another Peter Fatch.

So, it comes back to Atupele and Vice President Dr. Soulosi K. Chilima. These are the two names that will determine 2019 elections. Both are young, both are likeable and both have national tongues wagging a about their political future.

Yes, Atupele has strong political base of 13 percent national vote, that add it to President Peter wa Mutharika’s 36 percent it gives the President 50 plus one majority that he needs to govern again in 2019.

Dr. Chilima is loved by social media and very little known of him politically. Some of his associates would want him start laying ground and see what he can achieve. It is difficult and challenging for a man who has no political position is his own party. But with Soulosi never is never, he managed to overtake established politicians and became a Vice President. I always say politics makes anyone- and anyone can make politics, Late Bingu wa Mutharika proved the impossible possible.

So in 2019 if you want to know what will happen- look closely at these two men. Whatever they decide will define the fate of President Peter  Mutharika and Reverend Lazarous Chakwera. If you want to win next elections- the northern region will decide in less than 22 months from now who goes to State House, by following any of these two young men- to be the next Vice President of Malawi, whose fate and luck makes the election campaign that has started interesting!

President Mutharika might have just added fuel to blazing fire- by declaring Chilima his son, reshuffle his cabinet and push Atupele to come out and campaign! Dzuka Malawi, the hour of political gladiators is gone- battle of wit and strategy has our politics become. Imagine if Atupele and Chilima formed a pair and run- the third option could prove new politics is possible!

  • Next post- why underestimating Joyce Banda is a disaster!
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Kennedy Kuntonda
Guest

Now I don’t want to involve myself in the Political issues, who ever wins and develop my Country, I will be happy.

Green Kunyenga
Guest
Your article is well articulated but the sums are not adding up. The DPP of 2014 is not the same DPP of today. People have lost trust in the DPP government. I do not think any well meaning Malawian will vote them back to power again. If by fate they are voted back into government then Malawians are the most pitiable people in the world. Everyone can easily see that DPP is full of thieves and dishonest personalities , more than the People’s Party and therefore do not offer any hope. Though the MCP does not offer a viable alternative… Read more »
Emily
Guest

By malawians do you mean yourself? Do not generalise. Some of us have got eyes to see and we do not move with the wind.

MAMBALAZ
Guest
BUSHIRI IS THE ONLY MAN WHO LOVES MALAWI AND HIS PEOPLE !! THIS MAN OF GOD CAN TAKE MALAWI TO GREATER LEVELS ONLY THAT MALAWIANS DONT LOVE THEIR COUNTRY AND PROPLE WHEN WE TALK OF LEADERS WE TALK OF MULUZI FAMILY MUTHALIKA FAMILY CHILIMA FAMILY CHAPONDA CHAKWERA NO NO NO! WE SHOULD MOVE FORWARD LOOKING FOR CAPABLE PEOPLE LIKE MAJOR 1 MALAWI IS NOT DEVELOPING INSTEAD IS GOING BACKWARD BIG RISK WITH THESE OTHER CANDIDATES
Murameriwa
Guest

I have all the confidence that MCP will get the seat in 2019. Your opinion still points the Muluzi family honestly Chuma chisamapite kumozi its time a Malawi tizizndikile lets take ma example aku America where politics come from akana kutengeso Clinton ndiye aaaah amalawi tisalore kuti zizipita family imozi ndipo tiyeni tisazawavotere anyapapi amenewa.

igama lami
Guest

It is my view that the odds are in favor of MCP but it will take a good strategy. Among others, MCP needs to get a strategy to have both Msowoya and Mia in its fold. Losing one and getting another will be zero-sum game. In your article, you underestimate Mia at your own peril.

Chanco Economist osati wa Bunda kapena Poly Ayi
Guest
Chanco Economist osati wa Bunda kapena Poly Ayi
Good article. I agree with everything you have said but i will add that neither Chakwela or Munthalika appeal to me politically. they are both myopic. Malawians we should learn to move with change and change is happening fast. Atupele Muluzi is no leader…he doesnt even come close to it. These days we don’t need politicians. they are a bunch of thieves. we need young men and and women who have ideas to turn things around. Chilima comes close to that…but there are many more. the only problem we have as Malawians especially the youth is that we are docile-… Read more »
Wakuda
Guest

Count chilima out too is the one who sold this nation ,and if he was to prove me wrong tinakaona his first 3 yr of offece.my interest would go to those who fear reality of life and hide in offeces and pretend thing are alright.if u look closely u will see that those who fought for freedom were the ones azungu anawasambisa and akapenya cud fight fo a good cause .today ties allover kumangodandaula basi NDE who will change things for u. kkkkkk

Emily
Guest

How did Chilima sell the nation?

bullshit
Guest

In your article you said and I quote “However, the same cannot be said about Democratic Progressive Party- it has been in Government and very likely it has lost urban areas where economic downturn always hits hard”. Meaning that DPP has lost some votes and still on your calculations you are using the same percentage of votes they got and you added with UDFs to get them up to 50%.

wakikiki
Guest
You might be right but at the same time not ,because the mathmatics you have used will be five years down the line. That means some new voters have come and some gone. Those who have seen the difficulties we are going through will never think of givng the chance to DPP even it means joining with UDF. People now want to see a very different thing than usual. MCP is the only party that can give hope to many coz it has been out for long , and they will come up with fresh ideas than what we see… Read more »
wpDiscuz

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