Mutharika may win 2019 elections, Malawi presidential polls ‘dead heat’ —IPOR report
Malawi’s Institute of Public Opinion Research (Ipor) research on the political environment towards the 2019 Tripartite Elections shows President Peter Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) may have an edge over the opposition to get his second and mandatory final five-year term.
DPP spokesman and Minister of Information Nicholous Dausi said said IPOR survey is reflective of reality on the ground.
The survey findigs shows that the DPP presidential candidate enjoyed a slight edge in the presidential race compared to opposition candidates, although the difference between the DPP and Malawi Congress Party (MCP) candidates was within the survey’s margin of error.
“Specifically, 27% of Malawians said they would vote for the DPP candidate if elections were held in August 2018, followed in second place by the MCP candidate on 24%. The presidential candidate of the newest party on the political, UTM, was favoured by 16% of Malawians, while the UDF and PP candidates enjoyed 6% and 5% support respectively,” reads the IPOR report.
It said 11% of Malawians meanwhile “refused to answer” and a similar number were undecided and said they did not yet know who they would vote for.
“Given the closeness of the two top contenders and the fact that 22% of Malawians were either undecided or refused to state their preference, effectively, the presidential race was a dead heat too close to call in August 2018,” reads the report.
The survey was conducted with support by Centre for Multiparty Democracy (CMD) was carried by University of Malawi professors Blessings Chinsinga, Boniface Dulani, Joseph Chunga and Mwayi Masumbu.
“In terms of voting intentions, in the presidential, parliamentary and local government races, the ruling DPP was ahead in the national vote, followed very closely by the MCP”, the report by the survey firm says.
In the report, IPOR reveals that the DPP leads on party identification (support) with 33% ahead of MCP) (31%) and UTM (17%).
The poll survey firm based in eastern city of Zomba, said on political party popularity, the ruling DPP held a narrow lead in terms of the proportion of Malawians indicating that they supported the party with 33%.
In second place was the main opposition MCP was rated with 31% support. The newly formed UTM of State Vice-president Saulos Chilima came third in terms of membership, ahead of two former ruling parties, UDF and PP.
Dausi said analysing the demographics of the report, it reveals that the DPP appeals to all age groups, especially the youth.
The party enjoys a great balance of support across all regions. The oipulous Southern Region remains DPP’s stronghold.
Mutharika’s party will have increased performance in the Central Region, coming second. However, it comes second to UTM in the North – with a very narrow margin.
Interestingly, the DPP has shown a strong performance in both urban and rural areas.
Dausi said the prediction was wright as DPP was slowly gaining its popularity.
During the Afrobarometer survey of January 2017, survey Malawians identified food shortages (35%); management of the economy (23%) and farming (7%) as the three top most problems that they wanted the government to address.
When the same question was asked in the current survey in August 2018, the most frequently mentioned problems were identical to what was reported in the 2017 Afrobarometer study, with food shortage (18%), management of the economy (16%), and poverty or destitution (7%) as top challenges the government should address. Those three areas are the key areas where the current administration has performed well.
Since 2014, no Malawian has died of hunger. The economy has been stable and growing, leading the SADC region in performance. Inflation remains stable under 9%. The interest rate has remained unchanged at 16%. These factors have led to the improved conditions of the lives of Malawians.
The report outcomes are in line with findings of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an internationally acclaimed risk and forecast think-tank, which predicted President Mutharika to win .
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Bravo the DPP
kkkkkk ma stats ndiye ndi amenewotu, ndipo kubera komwe muukulubwalubwa nakoku palibe pa ma stats awo!
We Malawians are known to be friendly, polite, warmhearted and kind. Regrettably we tend to be most stupid. We know what harm APM and DPP have done to the country and yet we will flock to the polling station in large numbers to give the same plunderering, thieving, nepotistic and corrupt crooks another mandate to rob Malawi. Let’s vote in someone else for a change and bring back dignity to Mother Malawi.
hahahahahahaha mtete, stats yakupwetekatu? pano ndiye ukupempha anthu kuti akujowine kudana ndi chipani cholamula? Mmese mumasimikizika kuti mutenga boma inu? munya muona.
This demonstrates how dull most Malawians are. In the days of FAKE NEWS, FAKE HEADLINESS and FAKE SURVESYS you should watch out. Dulani and his friends conducted this survey when UTM had just been launched in July and they had their survey in August. It is only an idiot who can get excited with these results.
by then when iopr was conducting its research UTM was just 2month old which means it was not as popular as it is now. this is to say that if the research could have taken place this month UTM would be on better possition contrary to the third position coz now people have lose trust in the current tantrum regime
Chipani Cha ADIKITONI Achilezelele can not WIN- Chilima ndi ADIKITONI A chilezelele olo ine atandisutisa KAPENA KUNDIPEPELELA chamba chomwe akufuna kuti azalima ku KK sindingavotele DIKITONI
thats a fallacy my brother, u need to raise arguments and not attacking a person. thats only shows that u r still behind analysing issues..
Mapulofesa owononga dziko kuthandizana. This a ploy aimed at clearing the ground for rigging. This is not 2014. Ma report anuwo muzikawerenga Ku library yanu titakupititsani Ku retirement. Muyera mmaso 2019.
Ignore this report at your own peril. The scientific methods used are fairly extensive (though not exhaustive).
It should rather be a wakeup call for both opposition parties and naive electorate, particularly those from the North. If what northerners really want is to rid of the york burden and torture of DPP-led govt.
Otherwise northerners should stop being cry babies yet they waste their ballot on small useless parties.
Political leaders in the north have 2 realistic options either have single bargaining northern block party (like MCP or DPP) or rally under a party that would promote their cause at the same time likely to win rather than splitting votes on briefcase parties.
amalawi mukuchedwa muzavotele ine kansala nancholi muone magesi akala ulele pompo mazi alipo aulele mu shire mu tikangogula machine basi mazi azikanka magesi nkumaya better life siposa pamenepo olo osavota zizakala zateka
munuhuze pumbwayo magesi akudula kwambiri movoti akufuna achani zintukumukanika Ku escom ko nde azitifuna pano , akuti charge ndalama zambiri Ku escom ko kenako akutenga ndalama omweo nkumazungulila mumisonkano,
Are we surprised? This is obvious. There are just too many opposition political parties wanting to get into government and in the process splitting the same vote from Malawians of goodwill. Politicians with no strategies at all. This study wasn’t sponsored by any political party
Can we say that people want kuba to continue in our Malawi ? That’s not true .
DPP WILL WIN 2019 ELECTIONS,THANX TO DR SAULOSI CHILIMA WHO WILL SPLIT OPPOSITION VOTES.1 DPP& UDF,2 DPP,3 UTM & 4 MGWIRIZANO COALITION LED BY JB.Mark my words I test my case.
Thats how rigging starts, conditioning the minds of the gullible, akazabela tizati IPOR inanena kale, zopusa. we on to you apumbwa this time.
DPP must go, otherwise……
kuvota samafunsana mwinanso mumafunsa ogwira ntchito mboma mukafunse osagwira ntchitife ife ndi utm ndi saulos basi
DPP will win 2019 either you like or not
Phwaaaaa waphwisa nalo pama wa MCP. Ana achepa.
Akakhala uyu chilima waku mpanyirayu ndiye chake palibe. Masaya kuti bwafuuu ngati dugu.
DPP ndi landslide tu osati za 27% zanuzo.
ukunena zoona DPP 2019 will win with 75%
MALAWI SURVEYS ARE NOT TRUSTWORTHY ..TOO MUCH CORRUPT…
mutapasidwa ya fanta ndee mwati mulembe zimenezi iti..? anthu oyipa inu., tatopa ndi kubeledwa misonkho yathu.
Research is done by anzathu aku ulaya osati akanganya apa nyasaland inu. Inutu olo mutakhala ma Professors, kaganilizidwe kanu ndi kameneka. I mean, who in his right senses can vote for the old aged APM and call him his is her president. I mean who? tell me
ASIYENI ALILA NAZO CHAKA C HA MAWA ZABODZA ZENIZENI KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK
aaaaaa tikuyang’ana development not age. Malawi akutukuka uyu kungoti enanu munangobadwa ndi ntima otsutsa bas or boma limene mukulifunalo litawina muzatuluka ndikumakatsutsanso coz munangobadwa kuzatsutsa inu
UTM anthu onse aja basi 17%????? You were at pick that period now u may be slightly lower…idzakukwapulani inu dpp.
UTM will die Dec as dpp put it….
It all depends on when the survey was conducted. The survey has acknowledged that if polls were conducted in August such would be the results. We are not sure if the same would be the case if polls were held in November or December. There have been many development since then. The UTM, which the survey recognizes to be gaining popularity, has intensified its campaigns into the hinterland. This could have a mark on the polls. Similarly, the many public relations blunders the DPP have displayed lately could cost them greatly. In the same vein, MCP may have gained a lot. Its leadership has recently been on the move and aggressive while showcasing mature diplomacy. So it is anybody’s game. The DPP still has an edge though being the incumbent administration.
Hahahaha my brother even if the UTM may be gaining ground, you can’t quite tell whose supporters are they converting more, MCP or DPP. But it’s likely that more MCP supporters may be defecting to UTM especially in the North where the speaker come from (which used to be MCP stronghold). Even PP is retaking some of their supporters from North (in particular Nkhata bay), a region that is politically unstable. As a result UTM will catch up with MCP but the gap between MCP and DPP may widen even further.
Dpp will win coz they allowed utm to exist to divide opposition. There is No way UTM can win these coming general elections…a gap between utm and MCP (17% against 31%)… its just too big to cover in 196 days….only false hopes will be in this grouping….
Chilima wagwa nayotu apa.
Congratulations to UTM this is not a mean achievement. The only problem is that most Malawians (both literate and illiterate) dont know/value development. This is why we all waste our time voting on regional/tribe lines apart from handouts not manifesto. How do people in Blantyre city vote although most of them are literate individuals? Its bad indeed
Dausi says DPP appeals to all demographics especially the youth,which youth? The Youth Cadets or Mulhakho youth? Kikikiki, this old killer is fully loaded with yellow buns I guess…keep building castles in the air .
Totally the opposite of reality on the ground. Leading the SADC region in performance ??? Za bodza leni leni. Witch SADC are you talking about? Step out across the boarder in Mozambique and see for yourself. .Cost of living very affordable. Zinthu zochipa . Talk of infrastructure development, very impressive construction projects mush rooming every where. Investors are flocking there. While kwathu kuno akukana ku.bwera
.
Mkulu uyu akawina sazamaliza term azafa ndithu ndikhulupirireni
Hahahaha wakufa sadziwika man, akufa ndi ndi mwana wako ndi iweyo, komanso ndingoti family yako. You are predicting your own death my brother.
Old news, this was two monts ago???? Don’t waste our time with old polls, we need the latest, thank you
UTM was launched on 21 July 2018 in Lilongwe and August we were busy asking people about UTM, it was not even registered then. and you believe these results can be credible or a true reflection of the situation now?
THE SAME SURVEY INDICATED THAT HILARRY WAS LEADING IN AMERICA BUT GUESS WHAT THE OPPOSITE HAPPENED !!
SO DON’T TRUST SURVEYS GO
AND SELL YOURSELVES TO THE
PEOPLE !!
This should be a cue for opposition parties (MCP + PP + UTM) for forge a powerful alliance to defeat the formidable DPP. The poll might not be entirely correct but it is directionally accurate. There’s no way any of the opposition parties on their own can win against DPP especially if its forges an alliance with UDF. If the opposition really cares for the country and its people then forming an alliance should be a no brainer. these opposition party leaders should put their egos aside and nominate a leader amongst them to take the country forward. The other two can become Vice Presidents in the coalition govt with probably some of smart minds within DPP to be appointed as ministers. It will be the smart thing for a country like Malawi which is desperately in need of strong political leadership.
The art and science of polling by Chirunga academics is now beyond infancy, and it is unlikely four authors would collude in a work piece of this magnitude to nakedly favor one Party. So, it’s likely the results are credible … assuming surveys were done in person, rather than on line or over the phone. All Parties, would, however, be advised to take these results in strides, for obvious reasons, like elections are a long way out, and how fast political sentiments can change.
Parenthetically, it is not surprising that the diaspora is literally ignored: they don’t really count, and apparently, they don’t even influence their relatives, or dependents in Malawi as to who to vote for. Turns out all the fuss on the net, on Malawi politics is only for fun, and has no serious consequences.
So, let’s not get high blood pressure from the discussions on forums like this.
And, come on AfroBarometers: do your stuff, so that we can juxtapose your study against Dulani et al. You owe it to Malawians now.
Apparently, even UTM may have a chance of winning one or two seats (one in the South and Center) … but NOT the mpando wonona. Then the two will promptly defect to the real winners; as that’s how Malawi politics go. Still better than zero seats, but not good enough.
Izi ndiye zanyini zeni zeni
Inuyu sanakifunseni koma amaganizo ngati anowonanawafunsa .nfi amrne mukupanha 16% ya UTM ndi 31% ya MCP..musade nkhawa..apapa inali nthawi ya Moto ea mapesi ija.pano siwazilala nde ifikatu 2%….but mwayesetsa makosana.limbikirani tym ilipo.
THERE’S NO WAY DPP CAN GET A SEAT IN THE CENTER AND NORTH — SOUTH AND EASTERN PROVINCE IS FOR SHARING — SO WHERE IS DPP
VICTORY ??
UTM !!! Tati tikuyamikileni chifukwa gulu munayamba my junior ndi nthawi yochepa kwambiri. Moto buuu tiyeni mumamizi nthawi yidakalipo. Anthu anataya kale chikhulupilo muwulamulilo DPP
What a load of nonsense! Sponsored by DPP.
Muchitenso survey mu March parliament ikatha tione kuti kukhala zotani?Ife DPP taikana ndithu chipani choipa ichi .Sizitheka kuipatsanso 5years ina ai takana tikufuna achinyamata alamule dzikoli maka UTM moto kuti buuuu
Zabodza izi. If true, there is a 22% margin to share. What about the 145 million and the 85 million cars, did the people know about them n August when this survey was conducted?
And the calls by Mulli and Ngongoliwa to Lhomwes to vote for Peter because he is one of their own were not made by that time. I believe other tribes may respond accordingly. If taken today I don’t think the polls will show the same results. If MCP was able to win all seats in the South except one in a by-election , these researchers need to tell us what has changed. For all I know, MCP is making strides in the South unlike the previous elections when it concentrated in the Center. Again the polls seem to suggest that UTM is gaining ground in the Centre only. No, but in all regions. I do not think DPP will be able to amass the votes it did last time in Blantyre and any other southern region district with the coming in of UTM. So to say that it is only MCP which is heavily affected, will be utterly wrong.
Malawi as a nation cannot survive another five years with these thieves in power. So help us Good Lord!
This survey cannot be credible. You only sampled 1,200 people out of 18,000,000 people, which is only .06 percent. It’s not even one percent. That’s nonsense. We just have to wait and see.
hahahahahaha koma akanalosera kuti chipani chomwe uchikonda chidzawina ndiye ukanasangalala ndikuwaombera mmanja? Pathako pako ndithu.