Tobacco Production Set for a 31% Surge in 2025—A Boon for Malawi’s Economy

Malawi’s tobacco industry is poised for a major boost, with production expected to increase by 31% this year, reaching an estimated 174.4 million kilograms (kg), according to the First Round Production Estimate Survey. This marks a significant jump from the 133 million kg recorded in 2024, signaling promising prospects for the country’s leading cash crop.

The survey, conducted between January 13 and 31, 2025, attributes the projected increase in tobacco output to several factors, including:

✅ Expanded Hectarage – More farmers have dedicated land to tobacco cultivation, encouraged by favorable conditions.
✅ Higher Grower Participation – The number of farmers growing tobacco has risen, driven by improved market prices in 2024.
✅ Increased Sponsorship & Inputs – More financial backing from contract farming schemes has ensured that farmers have access to quality seeds, fertilizers, and other essential resources.
✅ Better Labour Availability – Farmers have had the workforce needed to manage production more efficiently.

Tentative demand for Malawi’s tobacco in 2025 is projected at 213 million kg, meaning that even with the expected production rise, there will still be a supply gap. This is a positive sign for farmers, as it suggests a competitive market where demand could drive up prices.

The anticipated rise in tobacco production is good news for Malawi, a country where tobacco remains the backbone of the economy, contributing more than 50% of foreign exchange earnings. This boost is expected to:

✔ Increase Foreign Exchange Reserves – More exports mean higher earnings, strengthening Malawi’s currency.
✔ Create More Jobs – From farms to processing facilities, thousands of Malawians rely on tobacco for employment.
✔ Improve Farmers’ Livelihoods – If good prices persist, growers stand to benefit from better incomes.
✔ Enhance Government Revenue – Higher production means more tax revenue from exports.

To fine-tune these projections, the industry will conduct a Second Round of Tobacco Estimates Survey from February 24 to March 15, 2025. This will provide a clearer picture of the final expected output and market trends.

With production on the rise, demand outpacing supply, and favorable pricing conditions, 2025 is shaping up to be a strong year for Malawi’s tobacco sector. If managed well, this surge could be a game-changer for the economy, reinforcing Malawi’s standing as one of the top tobacco producers in the world.

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