Analyzing Al Bashir bin Abdul Aziz’s Perspective on Alliances vs. Coalitions in Malawi’s Political Landscape
In his insightful analysis, Al Bashir bin Abdul Aziz delves into the intricate distinctions between political alliances and coalitions, particularly in the context of Malawi’s political environment following the 2020 presidential elections. Through this distinction, he highlights the fundamental differences between these two forms of political partnerships and questions whether Malawi’s current governing structure under the Tonse Alliance is truly an alliance or merely a coalition.
Al Bashir provides a clear distinction between the two terms. An alliance, he notes, is a long-term partnership formed before elections, often based on shared ideologies and goals. The aim is to maximize votes and ensure a sustainable collaboration over time. On the other hand, a coalition is a short-term, post-election arrangement between parties that band together out of necessity—usually because no single party has garnered a majority.
This distinction becomes important when evaluating the Tonse Alliance, which was formed in response to the nullification of the 2019 election results. In this scenario, political parties, including the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and UTM Party, came together with the short-term goal of ousting the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Al Bashir questions whether this partnership can genuinely be considered an alliance, given that it was formed with an immediate electoral goal rather than a long-term shared vision.
Al Bashir suggests that despite its name, the Tonse Alliance is more of a coalition than an alliance. His argument is based on the timing of the agreement and the lack of a shared ideological foundation between the parties involved. The coming together of MCP, UTM, and other parties before the 2020 election was primarily motivated by the shared objective of defeating the DPP. This fits the definition of a coalition, which is typically formed in the post-election period to secure a majority in government.
Furthermore, the short-term nature of this arrangement becomes evident when considering the conflicts that have since emerged between the parties involved. Al Bashir notes that alliances, by nature, require the participating parties to operate as if they were part of the same entity, with a deep understanding of each other’s decision-making processes, resource allocation, and communication strategies. The tensions within the Tonse Alliance suggest that this level of integration was never achieved, supporting the argument that it is more of a coalition.
Al Bashir goes on to highlight the potential benefits of alliances over coalitions, particularly in the context of long-term governance. An alliance allows for the pooling of resources and joint capability-building, enabling participating parties to achieve goals that they would not be able to accomplish on their own. In contrast, coalitions are often unstable and prone to internal conflict because they lack the ideological cohesion that alliances possess.
The Malawi case illustrates this point well. The Tonse Alliance was effective in achieving its immediate goal—removing the DPP from power. However, since the election, internal divisions have surfaced, making it difficult for the government to present a united front or maintain the level of stability that Malawians had hoped for. Al Bashir suggests that this fragility could have been avoided if the parties had formed a true alliance, with a long-term vision that extended beyond the election.
As Malawi continues to grapple with the dynamics of coalition governance, Al Bashir’s analysis presents a cautionary tale. While coalitions may be useful in the short term to gain political power, they often lack the longevity and cohesion necessary for effective governance. If Malawi is to achieve a stable and effective democracy, the political parties must move beyond forming temporary coalitions and instead focus on building long-term alliances based on shared ideologies and goals.
Al Bashir references the work of scholars like Gibler and Wolford (2006), who argue that alliances can actually foster democracy by encouraging greater collaboration and shared responsibility among the involved parties. In this view, alliances are not merely a byproduct of democratic systems but can actively contribute to their development.
Al Bashir bin Abdul Aziz’s analysis offers a thought-provoking critique of the Tonse Alliance and a broader reflection on the importance of distinguishing between alliances and coalitions. While the 2020 elections may have required a coalition to bring about the desired political change, the long-term success of Malawi’s democracy will likely depend on the formation of genuine alliances. These alliances, built on shared ideologies and mutual understanding, can provide the stability and cohesion necessary for sustained governance. As Malawi’s political landscape evolves, the question remains: will future governments be shaped by short-term coalitions or enduring alliances?
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