Political stage set for watershed 2019 Malawi elections: Parties eye Central, Southern Region votes
The stage for the 2019 tripartite elections is now set with the submission of presidential nomination papers with the Malawi Electoral Commission from 4 to 8 February at Comesa Hall in Blantyre. The elections will be highly contested since 1994 not only because of the campaign messages that are being sold and the political players involved, but there is a shift in the balance of support. Whoever will win the elections will be voted by a small percentage of the electorate.
Until July 2018 when Vice President Salous Chilima formed a splinter party, UTM, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), it seemed like a two-way race between Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and DPP. However, with the formation of UTM the political landscape has changed dramatically as the new party has amassed support beyond anyone’s expectations.
Whether the large crowds seen at campaign rallies will be translated into votes is yet to be seen. It is equally difficult to say whether UTM has any stronghold because it will be contesting in the elections for the first time. The strength of a political party is not measured by the number of people attending its rallies, but the number of parliamentary seats.
However, it is the choice of the running mate that has the country talking. Individuals without political clout or track record of political ambitions have been chosen with an exception of MCP who had already unveiled Sadik Mia has running mate to Lazarus Chakwera. Party supporters and the nation at large are surprised at the choice of running mates. Former President Joyce Banda picked Jerry Jana for her People’s Party (PP); UTM saw Salous Chilima picking Michael Usi as his running mate. UDF Atupele Muluzi picked Aford MP Frank Mwenefumbo while President Peter Mutharika picked Everton Chimulirenji.
While a party president is given the mandate to choose a running mate, the person they choose should be seasoned, inspirational and well-known enough to appeal to party members and to the electorate. The running-mate (who is essentially the vice president of the country) should inspire confidence and trust among the citizens. In the event that the incumbent president is incapacitated or has died (God forbid!) he will be the president of the country. The choice of running mate can disappoint members and cause them to change their mind of who to vote for because it reflects lack of seriousness and does not inspire much confidence that such a person can lead effectively. MCP is the only party with a pair which people have seemingly liked.
Apart from surprises, the choice of running mate has also revealed that regionalism is still a factor in Malawian politics as parties look for people in regions who would bring more votes in their fold. That Malawian political parties are essentially regional is uncontested. While all political parties have been unequivocal in saying they want to do away with tribalism and regionalism, the way they choose running mates is largely influenced by regionalism. For example, Sidik Mia was largely roped into MCP leadership to woo votes in the southern region as Richard Msowoya, the then vice president of MCP, who comes from the north was seen as not bringing more votes.
Everyone knows how Msowoya was sidelined and Mia became a de facto vice president of MCP soon after joining the party. In 2014 President Joyce Banda (JB) damped Vice President Khumbo Kachali (KK) and chose Sostein Gwengwe (central region) as her running mate to win more votes in the central region and to tap the youth vote. This was despite the fact that KK was a more seasoned politician and had suffered together with JB under Bingu Mutharika over disagreement about the succession issue.
Saolusi Chilima has equally chosen Michael Usi (from Southern Region) because UTM wants to tap votes into DPP stronghold. Peter Mutharika has chosen Chimulirenji to win votes in the central region which is MCP stronghold (though Ntcheu where Chimulirenji and Chilima comes from never votes for MCP). Although Atupele Muluzi has paired with Mwenefumbo (from the North), north as a region is not taken as a major political player because people are few. If one may ask, why did President Peter Mutharika, Saulos Chilima or Joyce Banda not pick a running mate from the north? All of them have used this as a strategy to attract more votes in regions where running mates are coming from.
Incidentally, no political party, whether MCP, DPP, UTM, PP or UDF, can claim to have a stronghold in the north. Northerners do not vote anyhow. They vote the way they see things. Parties like MCP, DPP and UTM should expect to compete fiercely for votes. UTM, DPP, PP UDF and MCP will share votes in the Southern Region. MCP will still retain its stronghold in the central region.
Although President Mutharika and his DPP have failed to live up to the expectations of the Malawians, they should be able to get more votes in the southern region (Mulanje, Chiradzulu, Zomba, Phalombe, Blantyre, Lower Shire). UDF should be comfortable in its traditional stronghold of Mangochi, Machinga, Balaka, Liwonde and parts Zomba. UTM should also do well in Zomba, Mulanje, Lower Shire, and some parts of the central region such as Ntcheu and Salima.
The central region (Dedza, Dowa, Lilongwe rural, Kasungu, Ntchisi, Mchinji, Salima with an exception of Ntcheu) has always thrown their political weight behind MCP. The cities of Blantyre, Lilongwe, Mzuzu and Zomba are cosmopolitan and political parties should share parliamentary seats.
The real contest will revolve around DPP, MCP and UTM. Other political parties and presidential candidates have very slim chances of succeeding.
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THE LOVE VOTE – ELECTIONS 2019
PREAMBLE
Elections are at hand and many will vote just as they did in 2014. But the big question is whether your vote was a love vote and wisely cast or a worsted vote.
INTRODUCTION
First we have to realise that you the voter as an individual are not alone in this country, therefore your vote is not for your individual welfare or benefit, but should be meant for the wellbeing of millions of Malawians mostly those who are in dire need. Suffering the skyrocketing cost of living, those who cannot afford medical services and drugs outside free government hospitals, for example, which is funded by our own contributions (Taxes). Let us also not ignore the fact that many people are dying in our hospitals because there is insufficient supplies while the same people, we are voting for, are enjoying the same taxes that were supposed to be part of poverty solution means in Malawi. Yet, It is very clear that their salaries, allowances and privileges are far above acceptable amounts compared to the level of poverty of the needy in Malawi.
Besides the current state of affair in Malawi, while we have to vote for our wellbeing, we should also focus on the fact that whatever is happening today has a greater, long term and horrific adverse effect in the future for our grand-children and our great grand-children in the generations to come. Trees are being wiped out, rivers are drying up and a lot of degradation in various areas, and there are no known future plans or programs or projects in place. Have we agreed to wipe out our future Malawi by this lethal weapon called selfishness?
There is a lot of illogical expenditures and reported misappropriation and embezzleement of public money by the same people when elected into public office. And as if this is not enough, to protect themselves, they even change the law which end up in oppressing the general and disadvantaged citizens even more.
Isa 10:1 Woe to those who make unjust laws, to those who issue oppressive decrees,
Isa 10:2 to deprive the poor of their rights and withhold justice from the oppressed of my people, making widows their prey and robbing the fatherless
POLITICAL PARTIES AND LEADERS
It is sad that most people have the feeling that since they belong to a particular political party, They consider it as their own party and nothing can move them, regardless. They are aware that within the party of their choice, things are getting out of hand and many Malawians are suffering due to such but you will still find them supporting and defending their loved party or leaders of the party. They forget that their action may benefit them for a little while but their relatives elsewhere are negatively affected by their selfish actions.
But what we should come to realise is that all political parties are just the same. This is so because the very same people that were in one party during its regime have flocked to the current ruling party. Why? That is where there is easy money and nothing more. Our political leaders are not wasting their time. They know exactly what they are doing and they know there is a harvest for their pockets. You and I are not the main reason they are fighting for those positions. They want us to vote for them hence they are campaigning. But once in the office, we will be forgotten. And the hand-outs they are fooling us with will all be gone and forgotten soon. Some have since left the ruling party towards this end to try their luck for the presidency for certainly the same reasons, Easy money.
And if you, the basic voter, feel it is your party and you will die for it? Why you? Why you a mere person who is not even known in the party offices? Why can’t you, who is among the ignorantly used yet suffering citizens, switch parties? Why can’t you, while the main figures are moving from one party to another and back as long as they get the greener pastures they want?
Wise up. It’s not your party so don’t be fooled. If your own party leaders can switch parties, why do you remain a fool and claim you love your party yet you are being used.
Even more disappointing is that MOST (not all) political parties in Malawi are family businesses. (Some though have not yet been proven so). This is proven by the fact that no other surname has the right to take the position of the head of such parties. We have many educated and capable millions of people in Malawi who can wisely lead this nation. But it is impossible for them because they are not family members unless they maybe start an unbiased party. Wise up. All you are doing, both you a mere deceived voter and those in the offices, is only pumping even more Voters’ hard-earned sweat (TAX) into these families’ coffers.
WHO DO WE VOTE FOR
For the reasons stated above, a love vote will NOT vote for a person/party for the following reasons:
For the name of the party he belong to, that we consider our party,
For the relationship of the person with you,
For the region or district he comes from,
For the hand-outs you received during the campaign time.
It is wrong to vote because of the reasons above because these reasons are some of the contributing factors that elevate wrong people into leadership of the nation.
A love vote will vote for the following reasons:
To maintain, in office, a leader/ party that you *honestly* know has performed to the expectation of the nation.
To remove from office, the person who has not performed as expected.
To remove the party which has failed to meet the nation’s expectations regardless of the name of the party.
To try a different person/political party who may bring change and meet the people’s expectations.
To show the, money-hungry and power-hungry, leaders that a voter has power over them. If your vote put them in the positions, you can take them down again.
To control the usage of your hard earned contribution to the government. (tax)
Political parties we support are not football teams. In football we lose nothing when our team fails. But in politics, it is you, me, our families, our grand-children, our great-grand-children and future generations that will suffer the impact of our todays’ mistakes due to selfishness.
CONCLUSION
A good leader should have his subjects at heart first. A good leader should be honest. A good leader should have a listening heart, a good leader should accept the peoples voice (vote). A good leader should be God fearing.
Vote for the good reasons. We can change Malawi together if we can love each other, We can change Malawi if we can see the suffering of the people out there around us. We can Change Malawi if we can imagine the dying future generations as Malawi will become a desert just because some people want to have all the money I their accounts. Vanity.
*Vote for a person you honestly believe may be a good leader.*
Pr 29:2 When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; but when the wicked rule, the people groan.
It is not too let.
May God Help us all.
Elvin K.
So somehow all the people who live in the central region come from Dowa or Ntchisi. Nobody from Lilongwe moved from Mulanje, Chiradzulu or Thyolo. Ana onse akabaza mu 25 or 36 awa ndi a ku Nsalu, palibepo a kwa nyezelela kapena a kwa nkando kkkkkkkkk This is funny, if politics is regionalistic then dont just look at the regio, look at the populance and ask them where they are coming from.
UTM will sweep all the cities including Dedza and the north. The north cant vote for any party that once championed nepotisms or let alone kota system – oh yeah MCP is not exception on this. The Hurry Mkandawire and Khumbo Kachali wont help..ask Richard Msowoya. Remember the region has people that were deliberately not selected to secondary schools or public universities simply coz they dont ethnically relate to other Pips down south dwangwa river. These are the real issues politicians will have to address in their campaign messages in order to win votes from the north.
dpp ikulamulanso chaka chino…just wait and see pajatu ovotafe sitilubwalubwa online…
Its Highly likely MCP will win the presidential race.in 2014 MCP was able to keep hold of the central region ,Ntcheu being an exception as usual and they lost by around 300 thousand votes to DDP and that 300 votes was slightly lower than registered voters in Ntcheu which voted DPP because of the Chilima Factor.Now Chilima is no longer there so 70% of these votes will not go to DPP they will UTM i.e DPP has lost Ntcheu.DPP has also lost some percentage of the Lhomwe Vote bcoz there is no way Akweni can lose in her constituency and also some Lhomwes will vote UTM because some of there idols are in that party and also bcoz they are disgruntled(ChimuCryWhy Factor).MCP hasnt lost any territory but the introduction of MIA factor has given them Them much of the Lower Shire Vote which they didnt enjoy in 2014 and also for the first time MCP has 30% of the vote in the eastern region during the by elections which is an indication MIA being a Moslem has influenced people to vote MCP in the eastern region based on Religion.The Northern region is the only unpredictable region but parties will shrae the northern region almost equally with UTM and MCP having a larger share than DPP.DPP is loved in chitipa which has a very small number of registered voters as a district.I am based in Karonga where MCP is very strong seconded by UTM.Rumphi is MCP,Mzimba is MCP now three MPs from Mzimba endorsed Chakwera inclunding khumbo kachali himself.All the big political Heads of Mzimba(Kachale,Harry Mkandawire) are MCP except Goodal gondwe who has no influence as far as mzimba is concerned.Nkhatabay is will also be up for sharing for all the major parties.From this MCP seems the only party which has not lost territory but it has gained and looking at the 300 votes which they lost ellections with in 2014,now they have gained more than what they required that time.These elections will be for MCP to lose,otherwise the current political landscape favours them.
mcp has been out of goverment for decades now ,what have they been doing all these years not to win elections having the central being its stronghold ? in 2019 Bakili with his udf helped mcp against Bingu with all not just a part of eastern region but still more lost to dpp. How can mcp win this because of Mia in south and easten region, is mia powerful than how Bakili was in 2009 ?
uwe ndi munthu wanzeru kwabasi
wakwiya ndi mfiti
Check your stats. It was not 300 thousand but around 500 thousand
Vote for MCP or UTM
You’ll do your math who’ll win this contentious election: Southern region: 2,037,218
Central region: 2,915,452
Eastern region 972,432
Northern region 931,229
for central region almost a million are for Lilongwe which is shared, no one will claim for lilongwe
abhodzatu inu . Don’t you know that in 2014 mcp won lilongwe with 62% ?? And do you know how much was that 62%??
Not true: there are two Lilongwes: city and rural. It’s only city that’s shared. LL Rural majority votes MCP
Lilongwe rural which has 18 constituencies is purely MCP. It’s only in the city where votes are shared
Even a layman could do this analysis. Nothing new here.
thanx thus your views, mine is that UTM siikuona za stronghold zanuzo
Yes just like me I don’t care about strongholds ndikufuna mtsogoleri was nzeru amene adzasinthe chuma cha Dziko langa kupita patsogolo….za stronghold’zi tiziika nazo azitsogoleri opanda masomphenya
MCP is sitting on the advantage..
What you have written Lowani is very true and looking at the registered voters central has the highest and though south is second there will be divided votes , then in addition to that, forget not the null and void votes and then MCP has made some big inroads in south this time around unlike in 2014 which is a plus to them. Though there is a lot of euphoria with the coming of UTM but their strong command is in the cities where unemployment is high and they do not have a political constituency. So the players are DPP and MCP then followed by the rest.